As is often the case in presidential years, the critical parts of Idaho’s general election ballots - ballot issues like initiatives excepted - are the races for the state legislature.
Given that the partisan control of the legislature is not much in question - Republicans are extremely unlikely to be bumped from control next session - that may not seem obvious. But the choice is still in the hands of the voters, and they do have more choices this year than in many legislative contests for decades. Idaho Democrats have nominated an unusually large number of contenders this time, and the recent national Democratic wave of enthusiasm could make more races competitive.
So where should Idahoans be looking for competitive legislative action this time? Let’s run through some of the places where attention may be focused on election night.
District 6 (Moscow-Lewiston). Republican Dan Foreman, in his second tenure as a senator (he was defeated for re-election in between), is as ferocious a hard-right culture warrior as there is in the Idaho Legislature, which is quite a commentary, and he has verbally trashed his own local communities (Moscow and the University of Idaho). His opponent, Democrat Julia Parker, is a Moscow city council member and a complete contrast.
This long has been a politically competitive area, though in recent years Republicans have dominated it. This could go either way, though Parker starts with a good base in Moscow and solid fundraising. At least one of the House races has a competitive look to it too.
District 15 (west Boise area). The state’s premier legislative battleground for years, this district and 26 are the closest Idaho has today to truly purple districts. Long Republican, it is more competitive now due in heavy part to the dogged ice-breaking of Democrat Steve Berch, now running for his fourth term. Last election he was joined here by a Democratic senator, Rick Just. Both work the district intensively, focusing on door to door campaigning.
But this is a hotly competitive place, and especially in a presidential year neither seat can be considered secure. Berch is opposed this time by Annette Tipton and Just by a former representative, Codi Galloway, who he narrowly defeated for the Senate in 2022. Two years ago a third party (Constitution) candidate soaked up a few votes which might have flipped the race the other way; this year, there’s no third party candidate.
The direction of 15, and the potential over time for a purpling of Boise’s suburbs, is very much up for grabs.
District 26 (Jerome, Blaine). Redistricting two years ago reshaped legislative districts in central Idaho, making Democratic Blaine a smaller factor than it had been. It was still big enough, barely, to keep two of the three seats in this northern Magic Valley district Democratic.
Democrat Ron Taylor narrowly beat Republican legislator Laurie Lickley for the Senate seat two years ago, and now they face each other again. Same story with Democratic Representative Ned Burns, who also won narrowly two years ago over Republican Mike Prohanka, and now faces him again. And the House Republican, Jack Nelson, two years ago prevailed by similarly tight margins. The numbers are very close in the Jerome/Wood River district, and either side could end up sweeping it, or splitting it.
District 33 (Idaho Falls). This one is a longer shot, and just one of the three legislative seats in this urban Idaho Falls district is contested. It’s worth a view anyway. This district, or its near equivalents, has been among the few outside the Boise, Moscow, Pocatello or Wood River areas to feature a competitive general election contest in recent decades, and some subtle in-party (Republican) dynamics this year offer a hint of more flexibility than usual. It is one of the more urban districts outside the Boise area.
The incumbent Republican is Representative Barbara Erhardt, one of the most uncompromising of legislative social warriors. Democrat Miranda Marquit, chair of the county Democratic organization, has run against Erhardt twice before, losing decisively both times. Will history simply repeat? Maybe, even probably, but if this is an unusual year the numbers might change enough to offer hope to more Democratic candidates here in the future.
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