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Corruption

May 7, 2026

I don’t make such claims lightly.

Our previous Director of The Department of Health and Welfare, Alex Adams closed down a program for families to care for their disabled children funded with federal money with such claims. Back when I was on the Board of H&W, when there was a board, before the legislature in its wisdom cancelled the board, I asked him if any accusations of fraud were referred to our Attorney General. He mumbled something. No prosecutions have followed.

So a director, appointed by our Governor can shut down a funded program on unfounded allegations.

I get it. You conservative Republicans don’t want any taxpayer dollars going to the “unfit, the needy, the disabled”. You just want our taxpayer dollars going to families who want their kids to go to private, Christian schools.

Please, if you are concerned about fraud, you Conservative Idaho Republicans, wake up and watch $186M dollars shoot out to folks a few legislators think should get it.

For that’s what our Senator Crapo championed, and our congressional delegation (all Trump lackeys) voted for. According to the federal website, Idaho has received $186M dollars and it is in some account somewhere at the Idaho DHW.

But the Idaho legislature must approve any of this spending. They have set the delegating committee as 8 members, all Republican, but what does that mean here in Idaho?

The Department has great plans. I apologize for my cynicism. When I read the plans, they sound like gobbledygook. Please read them, you folks out there in rural Idaho and tell me if that’s what you think you need.

There’s a lot of cyber, technology, AI references in there. Just who do you think is going to get that money? Not Syringa General Hospital, or Clearwater Valley, or Lost Rivers. No, these grants will go to the big companies selling these services, whose employees live in Seattle and San Francisco.

We are getting fleeced. Our national debt is exploding, our health care system is a mess, and this grant program throws more dog bits to a very fat dog.

And our legislators have designed a system to funnel that money to whomever buys them the best lunch.

I hate to tell you, but we here in Idaho are small potatoes. A million-dollar grant can be awarded for a persuading $50 lunch.

And the Co-Chair of this committee, Jordan Redman has already faced charges of self-serving as a public servant.

So legislators could be acting badly. This is just old news. I’ve seen it before, maybe you have too.

Here’s the crippling coda.

The federal legislation to send this $1B to Idaho included a stipulation that the state would continue to support the programs developed.

Can you imagine the Idaho legislature coughing up another $200M a year to the Idaho DHW to fund AI kiosks in our small towns? And what would these AI kiosks do to help small communities thrive?

We are ripe for corruption. I have seen it in our Capitol. A person in charge of dispersing grants for school internet fudged the granting process. And that was just $25M. Somebody sued, the court found the process bad, and Idaho lost.

Now we are upping the ante.

Forking out grants while you are slicing the Medicaid program may hope to soften the blow. That’s just feeding into the deep corruption we already have.

Instead we need to be asking some very fundamental questions.

Should we all have access to healthcare?

What should our basic healthcare look like?

How should this system be paid for?

The United States pays per person almost twice what the next country in the world pays. We are rich. And we are wasting a wonderful opportunity to be great.

 

Independents could make a difference

May 4, 2026

There are currently almost 260,000 independent or unaffiliated voters in Idaho. Every one of them can cast their vote on the Republican ticket in the May 19 primary election. All they have to do is change their registration from “Unaffiliated” to “Republican.” They can do it from now until election day. On election day, May 19, they merely tell the election officials that they wish to register as a Republican. They should not take “no” for an answer because some officials are unaware of this fact.

Idaho has about 630,000 registered Republicans at present. Voter turnout for Idaho’s recent primary elections averages around 30%. That means there will probably be about 189,000 Republicans voting in the primary election this year. As many as half of Idaho Republicans are the traditional, reasonable variety, who have little regard for the extreme culture war variety. If a significant number of unaffiliated voters register to vote in the GOP primary, they could help the traditional Republicans break the stranglehold that culture warriors hold over our legislative offices.

In the 2024 primary election, culture warrior extremists beat a number of reasonable Republicans in close, low-turnout Senate races. In Legislative District 6, extremist Dan Foreman beat Robert Blair with a vote of 3,396 to 2,983 with a turnout of just 23% of registered voters. In District 9, culture warrior Brandon Shippy defeated Scott Syme, an excellent legislator, by a vote of 4,404 to 4,114 with a 22.2% voter turnout. District 13 saw Brian Lenney beating an outstanding public servant, Jeff Agenbroad, by 2,695 to 2,154 with a turnout of 19%. In District 20, Josh Keyser, an Idaho newcomer, used an ugly campaign to defeat Chuck Winder, a distinguished Idahoan, by 3,208 to 2,926–a turnout of 17.6%. Culture war extremist Josh Kohl used a nasty campaign in District 25 to beat Linda Hartgen, a dedicated public servant, by 3,008 to 1,761– a 23.9% turnout.

Unaffiliated voters have it within their power to elect enough Senators and Representatives to put a stop to the divisive politics that have been the hallmark of the culture warriors. The extremists continually raise fake issues to stir up fear and anger in order to tar their opponents and harvest votes. Independents need to step forward to participate in the Republican primary because that is where most of our leaders are elected. In today’s Idaho, the person who wins the Republican primary is all-too-often the one who prevails in the general election.

With regard to those running in the May 19 primary, there are a number of sources where all voters can find out about the candidates competing for legislative positions. In my estimation, the best source is the very comprehensive Take Back Idaho Voter Guide. It can be found at https://idahovoters.com/.

The Guide does not endorse candidates. Rather, it contains detailed legislative profiles, candidate histories, and key news stories, plus insights into candidate’s campaign finances and affiliations. It provides an in-depth, even-handed view of candidates. It is an indispensable guide for voters.

A new source of voter information has been produced by Neighbors Organized for Voice and Action (NOVA). The group has prepared an Affordability Index, which rates sitting legislators on a number of votes on bills pertaining to affordability in the 2026 legislative session. It can be found at–https://www.novaidaho.org/2026-affordability-index. The NOVA index provides pertinent information but does not endorse candidates.

Another place where information about candidates can be found is the Idaho Freedom Foundation’s Idaho Index. It can be found at https://index.idahofreedom.org/.

The index rates legislators on a variety of extremist legislation and spending issues. The higher the rating on the freedom index, the more extreme the legislator is. Legislators with the highest ratings on the spending index are those who have voted to starve or kill important state programs–public education, Medicaid, child care, higher education and a wide variety of other state services. The top-rated legislators are folks who delight in culture warfare and destruction of government. They include Senators Christy Zito, Glenneda Zuiderveld and Josh Kohl and Representatives Lucas Cayler, David Leavitt and Clint Hostetler. It provides voters a rogues gallery of those to avoid at all costs.

Unaffiliated voters can and should exercise their lawful right to vote in the May 19 Republican primary. A relatively small fraction of Idaho’s 260,000 independent voters could return Idaho to the time when responsive, responsible governing was the hallmark of the Gem State, instead of the divisive, culture war hellscape it has become. The future of Idaho is in your hands, independents, please stand up and speak out with your vote on May 19.

 

Hill steepens in Oregon 5th

Hill steepens in Oregon 5th

May 3, 2026

In 2022, after Oregon’s new map for congressional districts was set in place, the state emerged with a high number of competitive U.S. House districts: Three out of six were Democratic-leaning, but not by enough to lock out Republicans. Nationally, fewer than a fifth of districts usually meet that description.

The 2022 election gave Democrats two of those three seats. Then-Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle won the 4th District, which includes Eugene, Corvallis and much of Oregon’s coast, while then-state Rep. Andrea Salinas captured the 6th District in the Willamette Valley, though both contests were competitive.

Voters elected Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the more closely-matched 5th District, based around Clackamas County on the west side and Deschutes County on the east.

In 2024, even while Republicans did well nationally, Hoyle and Salinas seemed to solidify their positions, while Democrat Janelle Bynum ousted Chavez-DeRemer in another close race.

This year, while the 4th and 6th districts seem to be slipping out of easy reach for Republicans, you could make an argument that the 5th District, which flipped control twice after two very close races, ought to be a hot battleground once again.

But it doesn’t look that way.

Two years ago, the Cook Political Report regularly rated the Oregon 5th a “toss-up” race. This year, it calls it “likely Democratic,” and the national parties seem less interested in it than in the last two elections.

Two Republicans are competing in the upcoming primary election: Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair and law school student (and legal extern) and activist Jonathan Lockwood. Adair is the clear front-runner. She has reported raising substantial funds (about $272,000 by the end of March), while Lockwood didn’t report any (which legally means no more than $5,000).

Lockwood’s website reports no endorsements from fellow Republicans, while Adair’s endorsement page is packed with them, including two leading Republican gubernatorial contenders (Christine Drazan and Ed Diehl), numerous legislators and county officials and the Oregon Farm Bureau and Oregon Young Republicans. Adair has been organizing since at least last fall, and it shows.

Put it this way: An Adair loss in the primary would be a major upset.

The general election is another story.

Start with fundraising. Adair’s $272,000 is not bad for a congressional challenger at this point, but her treasury may be swamped by Bynum’s current $3 million.

Adair, of Sisters, has a political base in Deschutes County, where she has twice been elected commissioner; elections for commission are partisan in Deschutes. But that base seems far from overwhelming. She won with 50.5% in 2018 and 50.9% in 2022, results even closer than the last two contests in the 5th Congressional District.

The year may be critical too. Like the leading Republican contenders for governor, Adair has barely if at all mentioned the name of Donald Trump, though control of the U.S. House is a key factor in what the second half of this Trump term looks like — and is a central issue in congressional races nationally. The public pages of her website appear to lack specific references to the president, even in a press release criticizing a recent Bynum budget vote in which Trump was directly involved.

She has ties to Trump, however. In 2016 she was a delegate to the Republican National Convention bound to support Trump.

The Trump administration filtered into her commission activities. In February 2025, she was part of the 2-1 commission majority opting to end the county Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Access Committee, described as working on matters such as “pay disparities between male and female county employees, improving access for hearing and visually impaired residents and other accessibility initiatives.” The decision was locally controversial; it followed orders by Trump to end federal (though not state or local) DEI activities.

Adair said at that meeting, “We’re following the president from the top… the federal government is in charge of a lot of funding that comes to Deschutes County, and I would hate to lose it.”

All that will provide grist for Bynum, the extremely probable Democratic nominee. (She does have an opponent, Zeva Rosenbaum, a first-time candidate and a progressive activist who has reported no campaign receipts or spending.)

A sense of what may be coming from Bynum’s campaign might be drawn from the opening lines of her comments on February 24 after Trump’s state of the union address: ““Tonight, I watched President Trump spend the majority of his speech lying about the state of our economy, demonizing immigrants, attacking voting rights, and spewing more of the same divisive BS. I can’t say I’m surprised. It’s past time the President starts doing his job and putting the American people first.”

In 2026, arguments like that may make the 5th District Republican campaign a distinctly uphill journey.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

Dirk Kempthorne

Dirk Kempthorne

May 1, 2026

When I arrived for new student orientation at the University of Idaho in August 1974, the second person I met, welcoming us all on the tour bus, was the new student president, Dirk Kempthorne. He was a great greeter - really, my introducer to Idaho.

From right then I could tell: To the degree people simply have innate political and campaigning talents, you could see them in Kempthorne, who died on April 24. Over the next academic year I observed him in my role as a student newspaper reporter covering the student government. The idea that he might end up in higher office in the “real world” was thought a possibility.

To meet him at any point in his adult life was to encounter a courteous, self-possessed, able communicator well capable of navigating whatever social waters he encountered. He really was well suited for politics.

What I didn’t know on orientation day but learned later was that Kempthorne already had been through a political wringer. The February student election was contentious, with Kempthorne facing initially one opponent, Jeff Stoddard, then a third entry, Rod Gramer (in the years since a prominent regional journalist and education advocate). Kempthorne was a plurality and not a majority winner, and the question of what might have happened if Gramer had not entered - as in many such cases - has been hashed over ever since by those who were around at the time.

But there was more. After the election a student activist named John Orwick filed a petition saying the election rules had been violated (he didn’t allege any candidate was responsible) with the implication that the election results should be thrown out. That wrangling went on for weeks until time came to swear in the new student officers, and at that point Orwick agreed to drop the challenge. His pullback followed discussions with Kempthorne which convinced him the new president would work to change and improve the election process (which he did). Kempthorne announced that decision, adding, "John decided to withdraw his petition so the people who took the oath of office tonight wouldn't have to worry about being bounced out of office.”

Over the years ahead, Kempthorne seemed to have the golden touch in Idaho politics, reaching a succession of offices - Boise mayor, U.S. senator, Idaho governor, Interior secretary - no one else has matched.

That does not mean it was all automatic. Sometimes he happened to be in the right place at the right time. And some of it involved something more.

Kempthorne’s political trajectory really began with his successful race for Boise mayor in 1985. But that candidacy did not come out of nowhere. It emerged from what was then a roiling stew of Boise politics, over the unlikely subject of downtown redevelopment: The leaders of city hall had one vision for how that should proceed, and an increasingly large and popular opposition had another. That well-organized opposition won two seats on the Boise City council in 1983, and was poised for a takeover in 1985. Its leadership picked out a slate of contenders from across the political spectrum. A key question: Who should they choose for mayor? Maybe someone new, who could project well across a wide range of people?

Dirk Kempthorne, who was just one among several serious prospects, emerged from that selection process, and he was an excellent choice. His run for mayor - helped by riding a popular insurgency - was smooth and efficient. After he won, his tenure as mayor won widespread applause, and he remarkably won re-election unopposed. His elections to the Senate and the governorship were not surprising.

From a distance, all of this would look easy, and in hindsight, almost foreordained.

But the point here is that even in the case of well-timed political talent, there are hinges that can swing either way, and can choke off a path of progress as easily as enable it. Dirk Kempthorne seemed to understand those hinges, in politics and often in government as well, well. He was able to make a difference as a result.

 

Culture war

Culture war

April 30, 2026

I can imagine how the majority of the legislators we have elected reacted to the news article again putting Idaho at the bottom for K12 spending per student. I’ll bet most of them cheered and a lot of you Idahoans did too.

Maybe even Brad did too. We’ll never know, since he won’t speak up about this issue in an election year. He’ll comfortably win the primary and then easily win the general. He’ll be like Butch Otter, a three term Idaho Governor on his Wikipedia page with no real accomplishments of note.

Like Butch, he hasn’t chosen to make any tough stands. I guess he knows the political landscape of us wimpy Idaho voters. He sees us as sandy sagebrush and cheat grass.

Not me. I live up here on the Palouse.

Idaho is mountains and rivers. And desert and canyons. Why don’t we vote tougher? Maybe we just don’t care about the value of courage. Maybe we don’t care about the value of education and getting our kids to learn to think wisely for themselves.

Butch’s toughest stand was to yell across the parking lot to the Speaker of the House to kill the mandatory ultrasound bill. Women wanting an abortion would be required by law to have an ultrasound, probably a vaginal probe, before it could proceed. Idaho lawmakers were mandating a health care procedure. He stood up as he yelled over the tops of the parked cars, and the Speaker listened. Scott Bedke, now our lieutenant governor killed the bill.

Us Idahoans want courageous leaders, don’t we? Is that courage?

Butch did get braver. But it didn’t cost him anything. He endorsed Medicaid expansion in the last weeks of his last term. When citizens had gotten it onto the ballot, and it was looking like it might pass, he jumped on board. Thanks Butch.

So maybe bravery will come in the final weeks of Brad’s third term.

Our Christian Nationalist legislators are crowing about Idaho to their followers on social media. They are bragging that we have insured Medical Freedom and tax dollars for their Christian Nationalist schools. And they are proud that the liberal, woke public schools are cut to the bone. They are hoping their fellow oppressed rich white folks will move here to Idaho to vote for them. They already have.

So us reasonable Idaho folks, Democrat, Republican have a choice.

I am an Idaho Democrat.

But I have voted for Idaho Republicans.

Some of you Idaho Republicans even voted for me. That’s the only way I could get elected in this district.

We should be talking. We should not be afraid of the cultural warriors. For that is what they want, us to be afraid of their brandished sword of abortion, illegals, woke, liberal, you chose the hot button label.

The only way we are going to have a reasonable conversation is to start sharing our goals.

I thought Brad had a good one. Let’s make this state a place where our children can grow and thrive.

And he followed it up with increased funding for public schools. But it was wimpy.

We are in a hole. Idaho needs some vision.

Maybe your vision is that we need protection from transgender folks. Or we need to get rid of the illegals. Maybe we just need to deport the woke, liberal, socialist Antifas.

I raised my daughters in this state. I wanted them to thrive. I wanted them to be able to afford to buy a house. I wanted them to have good schools for their kids to go to. I wanted them to feel proud about Idaho.

Heck, these mountains, these rivers, the forests, these deserts make me proud. I love them.

We need to agree on what we value. We need to build a community.

 

Idaho gives

Idaho gives

April 29, 2026

Are you ready for the Super Bowl?

Not THAT Super Bowl. I’m talking about the Idaho Gives campaign, which runs May 4-7. It is the Super Bowl … the Stanley Cup finals … and the Olympics for more than 700 nonprofits throughout the Gem State that rely heavily on this campaign to help with their good works.

The MVP trophy is a foregone conclusion. It goes to the Idahoans who put their generosity on full display. Idahoans have donated $33 million since the campaign started in 2013. Last year, Idahoans contributed a record $5.1 million to the campaign. The goal this year is $6 million.

Don’t bet against Idaho making that lofty goal.

“Last year, we found that 85 percent of the nonprofits found at least one new donor,” says Evin Bask, senior philanthropic impact director for the Idaho Community Foundation.

Not surprising. The list of nonprofits is like a giant shopping mall for charitable giving. In my year of writing about nonprofits, I have run across so many people doing things to make this state, and world, a better place – and that’s just a small sample of what’s out there.

I’ve written about the Women’s and Children’s Alliance, which helps so many families through the trauma of domestic violence. There are “Angel Wings” in Weiser who transport cancer patients to doctor appointments. Panhandle Special Needs of Sandpoint helps produce “normal living” for people with mental disabilities … and a Health Coalition of Teton Valley, which helps people through a variety of mental challenges. I ran across the Village of Hope (Coeur d’Alene), which provides resources for foster families. And I had the honor of talking to real heroes from the Wildlife Firefighters Association and Idaho Mountain Search and Rescue.

Granted, there are some (a very few, actually) that may have controversial political or philosophical leanings. But there are no “eligibility cops” at work here. Leave that to the secretary of state and IRS to determine what’s a nonprofit.

For the charity shopper, Bask says, “There are all sorts of flavors out there, and it’s up to donors to determine the causes they want to support.”

Colin Mannex, executive director of Moscow’s Kenworthy Performing Arts Center, is one who appreciates what Idaho Gives provides.

“As the most active historic theater in Idaho, we’re proud to celebrate 100 years of movies and live arts. Idaho Gives has been a very important part of our annual programming for almost a decade,” he said.

“Idaho Gives affords an unparalleled opportunity to reach folks spanning ages and various interests who all share the same desire to preserve the arts and cultural scene in Moscow,” he said. “When we hit the giving season, we go all out with special community programs that appeal to different audiences each night.”

This year, KPAC is opening with a staged reading of ‘Our Town’ (May 4) and closing with a ‘Groove for Good’ jazz concert to benefit local nonprofits (May 7).

With grassroots support, he says, “we’re constantly chipping away at essential upgrades like a new sound system, new popcorn machine and a complete marquee restoration. Next up, we’re going to install a wall-to-wall 40-foot screen and a 4K projector that will provide the best old-school moviegoing experience in the Intermountain Northwest.”

That’s one example of how Idaho Gives has contributed to the quality of life in the Gem State. Bask, in her work, sees many other examples.

“The nonprofit sector does so much to make Idaho a great place to live, We keep saying that you can’t go more than a city block to see the impacts from the nonprofit sector – whether you are skiing at Bogus, going to the Morrison Center, or walking downtown and seeing people housed in shelters,” she says.

“Our nonprofits are filling some critical gaps in our community, and Idaho is a greater place to live because of that.”

She certainly hits the mark there.

Chuck Malloy, an Idaho native and long-time journalist and columnist, is a volunteer writer with the Idaho Community Foundation’s Nonprofit Center. He may be reached at ctmalloy@outlook.com

 

Rejecting the troika

April 27, 2026

April 12 saw the beginning of the unraveling of a chummy troika of strongman rule among Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Hungary’s Victor Orban and America’s Donald Trump. Over the past decade or so, each leader has been in a different stage of gaining complete control of all levers of power in their respective countries. Hungarian voters dealt Orban a massive election loss on the 12th, derailing his quest for unlimited power.

Putin began consolidating power in Russia after the turn of the century and achieved absolute control following his first invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Victor Orban started his journey to tyrannical rule upon being elected as Prime Minister of Hungary in 2010. He became Putin’s closest friend in the European Union and used the Russian tyrant’s playbook to tighten his grip over Hungary to the point of establishing a dictatorship.

Russia is a kleptocracy where Putin and his cronies have gained massive wealth through their control of the economy. Orban followed suit in Hungary. He helped his son-in-law, Mészáros L?rinc, become a billionaire. Not to be outdone, Donald Trump and his family have doubled their fortune to about $10 billion since his election in 2024. Trump is now negotiating with his own IRS to settle a seriously flawed lawsuit he filed against that agency to collect $10 billion. An obvious case of self-dealing.

Trump has been very close to both of the wealthy tyrants. He has consistently agreed with them on numerous things, including disparagement of NATO, Putin’s war against Ukraine and elevating the economic and political rights of the favored few.

What does a freedom-loving population do when it experiences its voting, economic and other precious rights being eroded away by a strongman. The Hungarians have shown the way–organize, demonstrate and vote. The April 12 emasculation of Orban was not a surprise to me. I was electrified by the Hungarian desire for freedom when I was just 14 years old.

There was great fear in America in the mid-50s about a potential war with the Soviet Union. Kids in school were drilled to respond to a Soviet atomic attack by hiding under their desks. When news came out that Hungarian students and factory workers had risen up against their Soviet masters in October of 1956, I was captivated and inspired. I studied every news report about the Hungarian Revolution and prayed mightily that the freedom fighters would win.

It first appeared that the revolution might succeed. Our Radio Free Europe had been urging the captive nations in Eastern Europe to throw off their Russian chains and we had implied that we would help. After that initial encouragement we did not lift a finger for them, which was absolutely heartbreaking for this 14-year-old. As it turned out, the Soviets responded with crushing force on November 4, 1956, killing thousands of brave Hungarians and installing a repressive leader.

That, however, is not the end of the story. I traveled to Hungary in 1964 to see how things stood. Almost everywhere I went, you could see that the embers of freedom were still burning. The guides, border guards and many folks on the street were friendly and pleased to see Americans. Some made guarded, but favorable, reference to the uprising. It was a marked contrast to the gloomy atmosphere and armed military presence I encountered in East Berlin and Czechoslovakia, which were also under Soviet occupation. While the uprising failed, the Soviets applied a lighter touch of suppression in Hungary because of it.

Hungary was finally freed of Russian control when the Soviet Union crumbled in December of 1991. The country enjoyed a period of democracy until Orban began turning it into a dictatorship. The legacy of the Hungarians’ desire for freedom gradually grew in response, resulting in Orban being cast from power by a two-thirds vote in the April election–too much to overturn with false claims of election fraud.

The other two members of the strongman troika should take heed. Putin has such a strong grip on power that it may be hard for Russians to topple him, although the populace has become restive because of the over million dead and wounded suffered in his Ukraine war. It is not too late, however, for Americans to take heart from the Hungarian freedom-lovers and forge our own rebirth of freedom during this 250th commemoration of our casting off the chains of the British monarch.

The US has a tradition of freedom more deeply ingrained than the good people of Hungary. Americans need to organize, resist and vote to reject the repressive agenda being imposed by America’s member of the strongman troika. If Idahoans can defeat Trump’s Idaho enablers–Senator Risch and Congressmen Fulcher and Simpson–we can undercut his hold on power. It’s all in the hands of Idaho’s freedom-loving voters.

 

Subtle choices for Oregon Republicans

Subtle choices for Oregon Republicans

April 26, 2026

As happened four years ago, Oregon’s Republicans have a lot of choices in putting forward a nominee for governor. Those may be subtle and tactical choices.

The number of contenders is a little smaller this time but not by much: 14 Republicans are in the field. More practically, however, only four are really in the hunt. A consensus view would list Christine Drazan, a state legislator and 2022 Republican governor nominee; Ed Diehl, a state legislator and a leader of the anti-transportation tax referendum; Chris Dudley, a businessman, former Portland Trail Blazer and 2010 GOP gubernatorial nominee; and Danielle Bethell, a Marion County commissioner, as front-runners.

You can get a sense of this by checking the online betting markets, like Polymarket. There (as of April 15), you could buy a bet for 46 cents that Drazan will get the nomination. Ed Diehl is close but trailing at 39 cents, while Chris Dudley is a more distant third at 18 cents. Chances for everyone else sell cheap for around a penny or less.

But how do, or might, Republicans think about their choices?

Before getting to that, you might consider the messages delivered by the four top contenders at their first debate this year, sponsored by the Oregon Republican Party on April 16 at Hillsboro.

As you would expect from Republican candidates, there was plenty of criticism of Democrat Tina Kotek, on the economy, housing and homelessness, tax limits or their reduction, public safety and other issues. Much of the criticism seemed to center, though, not on the subjects being addressed but on how well (or in their view poorly) the administration is handling them. In Dudley’s neat frame, “it seems like every time Governor Kotek makes something a priority, it gets worse.” Or Bethell’s even simpler, “They fail at everything.” But all four made similar points.

Specific remedies were less abundant. Everyone said the state over-regulates, and a few laws (the Corporate Activity Tax most prominently) were singled out for repeal. But the main affirmative action suggested by the candidates was stronger oversight.

The debate was no aberration from the candidates’ fuller message; their campaign websites conveyed similar thoughts.

In all, the candidates sounded more like Republicans from the Vic Atiyeh era than from 2026. Donald Trump, whose presence utterly dominates current political discussion (whether for or against), and not least at the state government level in dozens of ways, was MIA from the debate. These four candidates seem never to have heard of him. Their relative take on the Trump Administration was very nearly a blank; the name “Trump” was (so far as I could tell) totally unmentioned through the whole debate.

The closest they came were blink-and-you’ll-miss-it passing mentions by Drazan of deporting people in Oregon who aren’t in the country legally and of transgender issues, and Diehl supporting some new timber-related federal forest policies.

But many other top-of-mind subjects also went unmentioned, from AI to data centers to abortion to spiking power rates to the in-state activities of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to the spread of contagious diseases to possible changes in Oregon’s system of voting.

The candidates took largely the same approach on nearly everything they did discuss – no really sharp differences emerged between them — and anyone looking to make a choice based on policy stances would be left at a loss.

What remains are some of the distinctions more personal to each of the contenders.

Drazan was the nominee four years ago, retains the appeal she had then, came close to winning and was broadly thought to have run a good campaign. The counter would be that she didn’t, in fact, win, and Kotek’s incumbency (and the targets it affords) would be her main additional advantage now.

Dudley came closest among Republican nominees in recent years to winning, in 2010, and has a cutting argument that the problem with Salem can’t be solved by Salem people, but rather by an outsider (like him). But 2010 was a long time ago in political terms. He has spent most of the years since out of state (maybe he was too much of an outsider?), and his ties and connections do not seem especially strong now. And now as then, detailed policy assessments don’t seem to be his strong suit.

Ed Diehl has led a so-far successful referendum effort on transportation taxes (he has an identity on his signage as “Ed no tax Diehl”), and does have ideas on other subjects including the environment and public safety, but will that be enough to convince Republicans he can win in this blue state?

Bethell can and does point to significant personal experience at the Marion County local level in a range of subject areas, but attracting enough statewide support to come out on top seems like a reach.

So, Republicans have a choice on May 19. But the information behind it is likely to be limited.

This column first appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

 

The most dramatic faceoff

The most dramatic faceoff

April 24, 2026

Tuesday’s election in Virginia over adopting a redistricted - gerrymandered - congressional district map was, whatever else, dramatic. As the vote trickled in over a couple of hours, it stayed close almost always, and while the “no” side narrowly led most of the time, the “yes” side eventually prevailed.

Idaho doesn’t have a lot of election nights like that anymore, but the primary election about a month from now does have some unpredictability about it, and some races that could be close in the Republican primary, where most of the action will be.

A bunch of contests have emerged pitting two clear sides against each other, mainstream candidates against the harder-edged contenders aligned with the state party structure. Both have scored wins in recent years; in 2024, the state party side seemed to get the better of it. This year, especially in the Magic Valley, we’ll see if a pushback attempt succeeds.

One of those contests stands out for the stark choices involved and the unmistakability of whatever the voters decide. That is the race for the Senate in District 6, which includes Moscow, part of Lewiston, and rural areas around them.

It’s a district that in theory might have been designed for something resembling moderation, but has not turned out to be. Moscow is nearly central, but its university community is offset by a large religious group development. The district’s senator is third-term Republican Dan Foreman of Moscow. His challenger is Lori McCann of Lewiston, a Republican House member appointed in 2021 and elected twice since.

Don’t let the party label fool you: They could hardly be more different, a description with which they’d both probably agree.

Foreman’s history doesn’t sound like the makings of a political success story, though he’s been elected repeatedly in a competitive area. Reportedly, he has shouted at constituents (notably students) who tried to talk with him at the Statehouse; among other things he was reported as saying “abortion is murder.”. He has said of his home area, “Latah County, particularly the university, greater Moscow area, is a cesspool of liberalism.” During a candidate forum in the 2024 election he told a fellow candidate, a member of the Nez Perce Tribe, to “go back to where you came from.” (Foreman has denied saying it, but others at the meeting said he did.)

His legislative record is, mostly, on the edge of where even current Idaho Republican caucuses are willing to go. He does not support any space between church and state, considers climate change a “scam” and has introduced legislation to make abortion first degree murder. The whole record (including in the recent session acting against a measure designed to cripple the Idaho Education Association) is a little more complex than that, but you get the drift. He has been well liked by the state Republican organization and the influential Idaho Freedom Foundation.

McCann, on the other hand, has been a backer of public schools and higher education and notably the University of Idaho - usually an ordinary thing in a district home to a large state university, but not a given these days. She was quoted: “Some Idaho legislators believe higher education should be defunded. I do not.” (She was quoted as saying Foreman’s IEA bill actions were motivated by the upcoming primary election against her.) She has been a defender of public libraries too, and generally has not joined in the culture wars that have attracted so many Republican legislators in recent years.

For her actions in some of these areas, local and state Republican organizations have criticized her and even set up a “platform enforcement” hearing to decide whether she had been sufficiently faithful to the state Republican platform.

All that is background to her complaints about being able to work with Foreman, or even talking with him: “We can’t get in to see him. We’re not getting replies back.”

Two well-established Republican legislators in the same district so sharply at odds in policy and approach make for a highly unusual primary contest. The results will have a lot to say about what this section of Idaho is all about.

And something to say about in general too.