There were few shockers in Idaho - most everything in southwest Idaho was predictable, and was predicted, with maybe excepted the small size of the Swindell vote. But every election has its surprise, and for that we turn to Idaho Falls.

That city has a new mayor, since three-termer Linda Milam, long assumed to be in effect a moderate Democrat, opted not to run again. In this conservative city, the ongoing expectation was that her replacement would be the man she defeated eight years (two terms) ago: Bill Shurtleff, then a county commissioner who went on to serve on the city council, and clearly a conservative Republican. He is more experienced now than he was then, a number of people noted. And some of his then-rough edges have smoothed over a bit.

But so much for making assumptions. Shurtleff's main opponent (there was a third, minor, candidate too, nicknamed "Huggy Bear") was an 18-year Idaho Falls police officer named Jared Fuhriman, a new member of one of the local school boards but not terribly well known. But he presented himself well, and he picked up Milam's endorsement. His status as a public employee and backing from a political moderate would not seem to be good medicine in a community as "conservative" as Idaho Falls. But who knew? He took 58% of the vote to just 36% for Shurtleff - a stunning win.

Maybe there's more going on under the surface in Idaho Falls than most of us think. Or maybe even that city caught a whiff of the Tuesday night political air.

No basic changes from the earlier post on the Boise races. The bottom line remains: incumbents Bisterfeldt crushes Seeley and Jordan crushes Swindell by landslide margins, and Tibbs ousts incumbent Mapp by a smaller but substantial margin.

This was not a pro- or anti-incumbent thing. People clearly drew a distinction between Tibbs and Swindell instead of - as pieces of their constituency sought to do - linking them together. Their candidacies were about very different things. The candidates could hardly have been more different:- Tibbs very well known in town for decades and deeply involved in the community on a range of subjects, Swindell a flash who showed up to protest on the Ten Commandments and has little other relevant background in civic affairs. The voters may have noticed.

This was not a particularly ideological thing, either, though the small size of the Swindell vote, following all the publicity she got and organization brought to bear, does suggest that Boise (the city, not the area beyond city limits) is backing off, gently, from the philosophical right, and toward the center. That may give some reassurance to Mayor David Bieter as he looks toward re-election in a couple of years. And that can be effectively counterpoised with the presence of Tibbs on the council, which certainly should keep the mayor on his toes.

All right, the vote counters are being a little slow this evening, but the 10 precincts reported in the Boise council races - since we do know which they are and where they are - do turn out to be enough to let us draw some preliminary conclusions.

That's because the districts are so widely scattered: three in the southeast, three in the west, one in the north end, the others around the bench and northwest. Politically, they're a smattering, not unreasonably representative of Boise as a whole, probably de-emphasizing the North End vote if anything.

Those precincts give incumbent Vern Bisterfeldt 76% in his race: He'll win going away. In the Maryanne Jordan (incumbent)/Brandi Swindell race, Jordan seems to be doing nearly as well, with 73% of the vote against a high-profile, energetic and organized opponent. Guess here is that the 73% will slip, but not nearly enough to cost Jordan re-election. More on this in a bit.

In Jim Tibbs' effort to unseat long-time incumbent Jerome Mapp, things are a little less clear, though looking good for Tibbs - who has 53.7% - at the moment. I wouldn't call it yet, but Tibbs seems to have an edge.

Elsewhere in Idaho, Pocatello Mayor Roger Chase looks (based on a third of the vote in) to be cruisng to a landslide re-election. Council member Richard Stallings (a former congressman) appeared to be doing likewise, though conservative Harry Neuhardt appeared to be in trouble.

A shocker in Idaho Falls may be in the making, however, if early numbers hold up. Former county commissioner and council member Roger Shurtleff, who was expected to cakewalk into the mayoralty, looks headed for defeat. We'll update before long to check if that holds up.