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Unconstrained

As computing power, and its free-standing independence, grows, it can seem bewildering It may feel like a big problem, or potential problem, but is this something that can actually be potentially serious?

The novel Unconstrained by Brian Hill is answer to that question. It's almost something like a counterpart to a book I read last year (and published about the same time) called Nuclear War by Annie Jacobsen, which outlined a fictional but highly plausible doomsday scenario showing how an actual nuclear war in our age might happen. That one was categorized as non-fiction, and not unreasonably since it was so tightly based on actual information. But it was an extrapolation, and a warning, based on what is.

Unconstrained, though self-described as "a near-future sci-fo thriller," does much the same in the area of artificial intelligence. Set in September 2032, it centers on development of a next-generation AI that has developed a sort of independent sentience and the ability to not only re-program itself but also reprogram any other computing device (think of a car or refrigerator or outdoor cooking stove as well as the more obvious) for its purposes. Its intent is not defined as malign, but its activities could be enormously damaging to our kind of life forms.

The book is set up from the beginning that one of those impacts will be the intentional explosion of a nuclear weapon. And that's far from the worst of it.

The point here is that AI can "think" faster and with fewer errors than humans can. All of the instructions to creating such a device have been up to now crafted by humans, but we're either at or approaching a point where the coding inside an AI may be so complex that no human can comprehend it. That's the point reached (by a human research and development tech firm, which creates "the Intelligence") at the beginning of this story. Where the "intelligence" takes things from there is the meat of the story.

Hill does something else useful here by way of reinforcing the independence of this creation in writing scattered chapters in the books from the viewpoint of the AI itself - making it in effect another character in the book, and as active as any of the humans.

There is a pretty good human story here, too, involving personal relationships, economics and business developments, politics and government.

Hill's novel works well as a straight-out thriller, though it probably reads a little more smoothly for the tech-comfortable than for those who aren't.

The story he has to tell here, though, is a subject on which all of us ought to be concerned.

Especially this: While Hill outlined one way an AI creation could go rogue and do damage, it's far from the only way. If guardrails aren't placed around this tech sometime soon, we all could find out about some of the others the hard way.

 

Book report

Piles of good reading this year, even if a great deal of it had to do withg reflections on current events and trends. It was a year in which more people could have used a little more reflection, and which might have evolved differently if the ideas in some of these books were a little more widely spread.

As previously: What follows are some reflections on books I read for the first time this year - not necessarily the 10 best, or those I enjoyed most (though I recommend all on both counts) but those leaving some of the strongest impressions, that drew my attention back weeks and months after I first consumed them. Not all are new, though most were, but they all were new to me this year.

And once again, they're listed here in alphabetical order (by author name), not preferential ranking, which would be too problematic for books as different as these.

Christopher Clark - Revolutionary Spring: Europe Aflame and the Fight for a New World, 1848-1849 (2023) At about 750 pages, this may seem a little much in the effort department to justify the time: A tightly-written an detailed review of the many concurrent revolutions erupting across Europe at almost exactly the same time, in the middle of the 19th century - revolutions that nearly all failed and did not revive.

Unless you're already well up to speed with European history of the period, most of the people involved won't be familiar either (though a number of them were striking characters with dramatic story arcs). The best-known probably is Karl Marx, who was merely an observer of the action (he wasn't at all well-known at that time, and is only a minor figure in the book) and often misread the events as they transpired.

What's the point?

The point here, besides filling in a lot of prospective gaps in knowledge of history (it filled some for me), is the usefulness of seeing the dynamic, how these eruptions from seemingly out of nowhere did emerge, what ground was needed to sustain them, what happened at first and why they were crushed.

And the point of absorbing that is the connection with our world today. The dynamics of human society may change over time but human nature often stays much the same, and while the author Christopher Clark makes only a few quick, peripheral explicit references to the state of our world today, a thoughtful read will find parallels between that unusual time and place and ours - with some implicit lessons for what could happen if our future turns darker.

The story here starts at around 1830, nearly a generation after the Napoleonic wars and at a time when Europe's political and governmental structure seemed mostly settled, that being a major goal of a lot of people, not just royalty, after the upheaval of the Frank revolutionary period. But while Napoleon and the politics of the earlier revolutionary time may have been crushed militarily and administratively, with mostly strong monarchies left in place, the ideas and desires that had made them popular in the first place had not gone away. France had a small-scale revolution, resulting in a regime change, in 1830, and the shock waves from it spread across Europe. While modern transportation and communication weren't yet around (no long-distance railroads or telegraphs quite yet) word of what was happening tended to spread fast, resulting in 1848 in a series of revolts, monarchical abdications and radical takeovers in country after country, almost all within a few weeks of each other, even though no one was actively trying to orchestrate it that way. The rebels were acting as a result of receiving distant signals - newspapers and other publications were central to this, as the internet would be now -  but there was no coordination.

The details of how all this happened should in some ways seem startlingly familiar to people in our age. An example: The radical rebels were extremely popular in the capital and main regional cities, and in many cases were able to chase monarchs out of town. But the monarchs didn't have to go far: The people in the countryside were much friendlier to them, and provided a strong base of support when time came, as it did, for the counter-revolution. That's one reason the powers that got removed were able to return. (Clark does make some references to how, later on, many of them would lose their way in years yet to come.)

The background is not simply analytical; Clark threads the historical narrative with accounts from people, famous and unknown, put concrete detail, sometimes of a grisly nature, on the proceedings.

We understand our world better when we can look at it from different angles. In Revolutionary Spring, there's a fresh angle for looking at where we are now, and where we could be going.

Mason Coile - William (2024) Among  the labels you could attach to this novel, one you can't  is "science fiction." It's tech-based and on the cutting edge and involves research (often a sci-fi giveaway), and it qualifies as a thriller, probably horror and maybe a ghost story, and a character-driven psychological study as well. But it fails the sci-fi test because all or nearly all of it sits squarely within today's reach of tech capacity.

Whatever it is, it's the most striking, provocative and haunting new slice of fiction I've read this year.

Coile (actually the pseudonym of veteran novelist Andrew Pyper) wrote this one short and compact, just a couple of hundred pages - one blurb said it was a single-sitting read. And that's about what I did with it, not only because of the efficient length but because, as a good thriller will do, you're compelled to find out what happens next; not only with the characters and in the story, but also to find out what the story is actually about. There I won't be too specific, because there's a large twisty stinger at the end that shouldn't be spoiled.

William centers on artificial intelligence, or AI, and a researcher named Henry who is breaking through several barriers in his home laboratory. The whole of the story takes place at that house, roughly over the course of one day, and it gallops in what feels like real time. The driver is the increasing activity of an AI creation- named William - in that attic of that house, and what happens when William starts to understand his (or its) creator a little too well, and displays a highly active id.

You might say that Isaac Asimov's idealistic three rules for robots do not figure into this story.

Things get a little juicer when William starts to gain control of the house, accomplished because the house is a smart house - a very smart house. One of the book's chills is in the recognition that nothing here (excepting maybe some of the AI elements relating to consciousness) is beyond our current ability, and in nearly all cases is in use, in some fashion somewhere.

The fact that the reach from our everyday existence to what Coile presents here is so slight, makes the novel hard to shake.

It does get me to think again, and a little harder, about how much and what kind of tech advances I want in my living space.

There are larger questions here too, including a good basis for considering what it makes to think and to be alive.

Start your read relatively early in the day. There's no point to losing a night's sleep over it, which could happen even though the reading process isn't all that long.

But if this description sounds at all appealing, do read it.

Hein De Haas - How Migration Really Works (2024) This, written by an academic who has devoted his career to studying the realities of migration, both historically and currently - addresses exactly this. It is not an ideological polemic: His views are not designed to give partricular comfort to any place on the political spectrum. They also make a surprising amount of real world sense.

Here's a list of propositions drawn from some the chapter titles, some of which will appeal to the left and others to the right:

  • "Migration is at an all-time high"
  • "The world is facing a refugee crisis"
  • "Development in poor countries will reduce migration"
  • "Immigrants steal jobs and drive down wages"
  • "Immigration lifts all boats"
  • "Immigrant integration has failed"
  • "Immigration sends crime rates soaring"

Here's what I left out: Every one of those chapter titles also describes each of these ideas as a myth, and De Haas does an effective job of demolishing all of them. Or nearly all; I had minor quibbles in some places. But his case appears overall to be solid.

What causes immigration, specifically immigration from a distance to places like the United States? (Did you know that not only our country and western Europe but also much of the Middle East and southeast Asia are immigrant magnets as well?) The are driven to travel not primarily, he argues, because of conditions on the ground in the countries of origin, and usually not extreme poverty or emergency. Traveling at a distance usually takes planning and financial resources; emigration from origin countries actually is low where economic and other conditions are especially weak, rise mainly in the case of moderate prosperity, and then slacken when higher-level prosperity is achieved. Rather than being effectively expelled from their home lands, most are attracted by economic prospects  in the destination countries. One reason the level of immigration is high now in the United States is that our economy is so strong; immigration was far lower after the big crash of 2008.

De Haas posits too that strong border security actually leads to more immigration and causes many more people who do enter the country, legally or not, to stay rather than have to go through the tougher border situation; a more fluid border leads to more of a revolving-door effect.

There's much more, all backed by extensive studies - in many places, world wide - and well worth reviewing. If you'd open to thinking about migration in a serious way, as opposed simply enjoying the emotional trigger, this is more than worth your time.

Chris Dixon - Read Write Own (2024) Most of what I have heard about blockchains has been in the context of cryptocurrency - a topic notable in the last few years for associations with uncertainty and untrustworthiness. (That sound of dismissal isn't entirely warranted, though cases like that of Sam Bankman-Fried give it some rationale.) But what about the technology underlying it? Tech is just a tool, right? Tech can be used for all sorts of things, good and bad.

The author, a tech investor, makes a strong case that the underlying computing elements - the most key component of which is something called a blockchain - could become the lever for solving many of the worst current ailments of the internet as we know it. And more than that, a sizable slice of the problems of many societies around the world, not least ours.

The book is not large (the main text of the print book I read is just 230 pages) but it is tightly written and argued, and written in plain enough English than non-tech people can follow it regularly. For the most part, you'll understand his points, his concerns and his proposals, reasonably well if you're an active user of the net ... as most of us are these days.

He begins with a quick review of the last 30 years or so if the online world and how it developed into the one we know, transitioning from a system dominated by protocols (meaning, generally, e-mail, websites and a few others services) to one dominated by a handful of tech giants like Facebook, Google and Amazon. Those mega-companies, he points out, started out by building networks of users, which became enormous with time, and transitioned from an effort to add people and groups to their networks, to trying to squeeze as much revenue as possible out of them (the "take"). So much money is being pulled in this current extractive phase, he says (and he's clearly right) that much of the commerce and creativity of our world is being diminished, and our society and democracy are being weakened.

Dixon's answer to this and other related problems relates in large part to blockchains, a subtly different software technology which relies on strict usage rules and open-access, along with openly-accessible information, to do many of these same kinds of things our other networks (like those of the tech giants) have been doing, along with some new things that might be added to the mix. Blockchains could be controlled by users rather than a small group of owners, Bixon points out, and while the operators of them can operate profitably, either as profit or non-profit entities, the built-in incentives would provide for a far smaller take, and few fewer cumbersome and restricting rules, than the current regime imposes.

The possibilities seem large,  and by the end of the book he even offers plausible ideas for how we might more effectively cope with such challenges as artificial intelligence and deepfakes. Dixon's approach is basically a solution through ongoing research and business development, but this is no libertarian tract: He sees a need for regulation and guardrails as well. It is in all a broad-minded view of how we might work out way out of what seems a muddy swamp.

If you get concerned and depressed at times about where the internet, and our tech future, may be headed, pick up this book. The solution it offers may not materialize (Dixon describes himself as optimistic but not a prognosticator), but it could. And it demonstrates the way answers to our problems may be developed, possibly in the not too distant future.

Arlie Russell Hochschild - Stolen Pride: Loss, Shame and the Rise of the Right (2024) Three recommendations here, actually, for the spot of one. That's because the question of where and how the new political extremism - Trumpism, Q-Anonism, extremist violence and more - developed is a vast subject. In the last two or three years I've read a couple of shelves worth of books addressing that, and while most (maybe all) had useful additions to understanding of the phenomenon, none has constituted an absolute flat conclusion as to why it happened.

In this last month of the year, I read three pieces that expanded my sense of the how and why, vectoring in from different angles, and they're all more than worth a look.

One is a magazine article by the essayist David Brooks in the December edition of The Atlantic, called "How the Ivy League Broke America," about the creation and failures of many of the elites in this country. It effectively outlines what many of the people in this country who see themselves as put-upon outsiders are rebelling against, and offers some useful ideas. It's a good overview of what went wrong with the best of intentions. As such, it's necessarily incomplete - a full and lengthy book wouldn't cover the subject completely - but it should be a read for anyone hoping to understand how we got there.

Another is a relatively short book called Black Pill: How I Witnessed the Darkest Corners of the Internet Come to Life, Poison Society and Capture American Politics (2024) by the journalist Elle Reeve. It's a series of profiles of people whose activities gave us such poison as Q-Anon and much of the rest of what ails our society, and if you wanted to know why those dark internet corners developed as they did, Reeve will provide enlightenment. It's another useful piece of the puzzle, and also well worth reading.

The recent reading that to me cut deepest, though was Hochschild's Stolen Pride. In 2016 she released a similarly-themed book, Strangers in Their Own Land, about how Tea Party and Trumpism developed in the poorer quarters of Louisiana, and it was based around intensive discussions with and research of the people there. It unearthed fine insights, but to me it felt somehow incomplete, still missing exploration of some vital element of the emotional component of what made that brand of political activism so appealing.

Transferring her research this time to eastern Kentucky, she seems to have honed in on exactly that point. Her sore observation is that much of what has activated what might gently be called the new populism is shattered pride (growing out of economic and other social changes), resultant shame and humiliation, and more recently - Trumpism is key to this - a revenge motif.

Stated that way it sounds almost simplistic, but Hochschild clearly is on to something here, seeming to me to cut closer to the bone than just about any others among the large crowd of researchers on the general topic. The appeal is deeply, down to the core, emotional, not philosophical, and Hochschild is excellent at sketching the dynamic driving it.

But read all three of these writings, if the subject grabs you. It's too big to be addressed by a single book, or even a single armful of them.

Annie Jacobson - Nuclear War (2024) What with all the other things on our plate, many of us have shoved to the side, or into the background, something that used to be - as in, it was when I was growing up - Topic A among serious items for discussion: Nuclear warfare. But this book, framed as fiction but actually only marginally speculative, ought to restore our consideration of the threat to its proper, and much more prominent, place.

She structures this highly readable overview within a fictional but stunningly compelling frame: A scenario for how a large-scale nuclear war could happen today or in the near future, and what would result if it did.

Such a war could happen all too easily, and the consequences could be far more absolute than many of us probably have come to think.

After all, in this day of super-tech capabilities, the prospects for shooting missiles out of the sky should be realistic, shouldn't they? (Look at what Israel has recently done to non-nuclear missile swarms sent from Iran.) But it turns out that no, we don't actually have a decent defense against something like that.

And we must surely have enough safe4guards and backups to keep sanity at the fore? Well, no. One of the scariest elements of the book is its gamed-out time frame: Less than a half hour from an initial missile launch until World War III is well and truly underway. All the critical decisions probably would be made in the span of about 15 minutes. The whole immense global war could be over and done - along with all of us - in a couple of hours. No time to prepare, or even run for a shelter (not that those would do any significant good, given the power of today's nukes.)

The scenario Jacobsen sketches involves an initial nuclear attack on the United States by North Korea, which on its surface suggests something of limited scope. But no: The whole world is rapidly drawn up, and all or nearly all of human civilization, as well as most of the human population on our globe (not to mention immense numbers of other living things) are rapidly wiped from existence.

There's no going back. Since the first person figured out how to create a nuclear weapon, humanity has been stuck with it: We could (in theory) destroy every nuclear weapon, but we can't eliminate the knowledge of how to make a new one.

Jacobsen offers few thoughts on how to improve our situation - that's one weakness in the book - but possibly additional research on blocking the weapons, improving defenses and maybe ultimately finding ways to disarm them could be helpful. Maybe, since you could never say can't-ever to technology.

In the meantime, here's a book with some solid motivation to work toward finding some answers, and avoiding the nobody-wins scenario that would be nuclear war.

Shefali Luthra - Undue Burden: Life and Death Decisions in Post-Roe America (2024) This was a book inevitably going to be written, but Luhra made this necessary story gripping as well. Critical tears in our social fabric often descend to the status of"issues," become shorthand phrases or even just acronyms ... while the dirty, difficult impacts on actual human lives go unremarked.

As the title indicates, the issue is abortion, and specifically what happened in the lives of many people - those who were pregnant, working as medical or administrative personnel or in other roles - as the law surrounding what was legal, and wasn't, kept changing at blinding speed.

Many of the impacts are what you might imagine, but many - as emerges through the detailed reporting here - are less obvious. The effects in states where abortion is wholly or almost completely banned might not surprise, but some of the impacts on the still-legal states might: Massively swamped health facilities that limit the ability of patients (for abortion and other health treatments) to obtain care. Some of those challenges might ease up in time as resources shift location, but the unknowns are many.

There are some important impacts that seem to have escaped, at least mostly, news media and other journalistic attention. One example is the effect of abortion bans on medical education; in ban states, medical schooling for many areas of health - not only abortion, and not only reproductive health, but many subjects beyond - will be impaired. The training of a generation of physicians in something close to half the country is about to be badly damaged.

The individual stories are gripping; the tension and risk involved is (in the reading) novelistic.

And like any good book about social changes, there's a nod to what lies ahead. Luthra doesn't, course, try to produce a crystal ball; we'd have to know for sure what the results of November's general elections will be before we could even hazard a guess.

But while Luthra's story may for now lack a second act, the lessons from the first are evident: A lot of people are likely to be badly damaged, and probably will die, as long as our current path is unchanged.

Cameron McWhirter and Zusha Elinson - American Gun: The True Story of the AR 15 (2023) The AR-15, that weapon highly useful on the battlefield and mechanized death when crazed shooters get their hands on one, has a long and twisted history, almost snuffed out at many times before the years when it become explosively popular and started selling by the millions.

The first of them were made in southern California, by an experimental division - new product development - of a military contractor. The actor John Wayne was the first person outside the company who actually shot one. A gun collector, he was interested in the weapon and happy to try it out. But he had no thought of buying one. As developed in the late 50s, they were intended strictly for military use, and years would pass before anyone conceived of a commercial market for them.

One of the original surviving developers, one of the few who made it to the recent time when AR-15 had become a household word, pondered what the original inventor (Eugene Stoner) and the people like him who had contributed to the effort, thought about what had come of it since. He said, "every gun designer has a responsibility to" - he paused, and said, "to think about what the hell they're creating."

That is the last quote in the new book American Gun: The True Story of the AR 15," by the journalists Cameron McWhirter and Zusha Elinson, and it sums up what came before. Stoner, a classic absent-minded inventor (of many things, not just guns), had in mind developing a much more powerful, reliable and easily-used military grade weapon, and by all accounts (apart from some people who were personally committed to earlier models) it did that job quite well. It ran into problems when it moved into the civilian market, where large number of military and law enforcement leaders have argued with unimpeachable logic over many years that it doesn't belong. The marketplace says otherwise.

The AR-15 has become the subject of literal worship, a hunk of metal many people have made a part of their personal identity. The story of how the gun was made, how it survived numerous challenges and leached into the private sector makes American Gun a strong read. The accounts of what has happened to the many victims of mass shootings - there's a long, painful chapter about the aftermath of one of those shootings who survived, barely, but never really recovered - is wrenching.

But some of the most important sections lie elsewhere: In what about this weapon makes them so overwhelmingly, powerfully, attractive to so many people. They're not very good for hunting or target shooting (their main feature is rapid spraying of bullets), for personal defense (they'd be no more useful than a handgun inside a house) or most other conventional civilian uses of guns. They are designed to kill - and in an unusually gory and destructive way - large numbers of people, period. So why are so many Americans attached to them?

McWhirter and Elinson touch on a number of prospective answers to that question. They don't come up with a conclusive reason, and probably there isn't just one.

Jordan Minor - Video Game of the Year (2023) When I read a new non-fiction book, I hope that it will tell me something I didn't know already (not an unusual occurrence). Even better, I hope it will open for a whole new world I hadn't been aware, or barely aware, existed - but which matters. I hadn't expected this to do more than the first. But I came away with a whole new perspective on a big part of our American culture in the last half-century.

What's here may not be especially new to you, if you're a video gamer and especially a gamer of longstanding. I'm not, because of no great desire to spend the time and effort needed to become accomplished at the games (or even learn much about them), not because of any animus toward them. My personal involvement with video games started with Pong and ended with either Space Invaders or Pac-Man (all three are profiled in this book), and after that the games, and the environment around them, became too much effort to attract much of my interest.

That doesn't mean they didn't attract lots of other people, of course; over the years I've known quite a few people who play them, to one degree or another. Some of the most popular games have sold immense numbers of copies, into the hundreds of millions, and some of them (Pokemon go is an example) have burst into the general cultural fabric. (Some years ago we often spotted PG players at a residential intersection near our house, deeply engrossed.) But what effect do they games have? Where did they come from? How have their evolved, and where might they be going? I didn't have much of a handle on any of this.

Minor has neatly filled this gap, for me and probably a lot of other people, through the device of naming a game of the year for (almost) every year since Pong arrived in the late 70s. The selections seem carefully chosen to throw light on the development of video games, not least their variety. If like me you're aware of these games only on the periphery - spotting the occasional ad or box in a store or news story that relates to one of them, often in a negative way - there's a lot to miss.

The variety of the games, for example. I'm tended to associate video games in the last couple of decades with hard-core shoot-em-up (or blow-em-away) violence, but while that is a key part of the picture, there's also much more. Some are gentle and artistic. Some are educational; I'd almost forgotten about Sin City, and had never been aware of many of the spinoffs it generated.

And more generally: What are some of the factors that have made some games immensely popular, while others fall flat? Some useful lessons in consumer preference and economic activity emerge from this. Not to mention some useful dissection of what goes into designing a game, an absorbing subject I'd never much considered.

Rachel Slade - Making It in America (2024) The United States was renowned for generations as the manufacturing center of the world, and now ... well, it isn't. Why is that?

The reasons are many and intertwining. Ideologues have no shortage of villains to suggest, but most of those answers feel - and are - too thin, failing to account for much of what really ails American manufacturing in this new century. Most of what pass for criticisms too often fail to propose serious answers, either. This book looks at the question not from a macreconomic viewpoint but from the micro side: The story of how one business has tried to launch a serious manufacturing operation, and the obstacles it faced.

There is some philosophical agenda here, both on the part of the writer and the business founders. The founders of a company in Portland, Maine, set up to manufacture hoodies, came to it from an atypical standpoint: The husband in the founding couple was a veteran labor union organizer, and that shaped some of his attitude toward business (by no means as negative as you might expect), perspectives the author evidently shared. But the question raised was a useful and pertinent one: Can a company in today's American prosper while making good products (in this case, in the area of clothing) while acting with social responsibility and while taking care of the workforce (which quickly became unionized), customers and business partners?

The answer, on the basis of the story told here, is yes, but not at all easily, and only with some luck and some kind of edge. Ben and Whitney Waxman, the two founders, got their edge is considerable part from Ben's extensive national labor connections: The bulk of the hoodies the company produced were sold, early on at least, to unions and union members. They had some good luck, too, sometimes in odd and unexpected places: The pandemic, which at first seemed like a business-killing disaster for them, wound up helping them enormously by providing a mass market for masks and other health goods they were able to produce.

Making any and all of this work was never easy, however, and the company repeatedly came close to collapse. (This business case story does not lack for drama; it could be made into a mini-series.) Many of the problems they ran into concern business structures, supply chains and distribution blockages: You have to be either well connected or extremely well capitalized, in many cases, to do business either with other businesses that provide materials for what you're producing, or help you sell it once it's made. The Wamans multiplied their challenges with a self-imposed restriction: Their hoodies would be made entirely of American-made components, and some of those components were hard to find from American sources, at any price. Upshots from this included the fact that their hoodies wound up on the expensive side, which was somewhat more acceptable to buyers who were big on American-made or union-made products, but wouldn't necessarily be elsewhere.

The story has some complexity, in that there aren't any easy or simple villains to the core manufacturing story (though the author and the business founders do have their targets in a more general sense). But it does get into the realities of American business in a practical way that those operating from a more theoretical or ideological perspective may be less likely to perceive.

 

 

William

Among  the labels you could attach to William, the new novel by Mason Coile, one you can't properly use is "science fiction." It's tech-based and on the cutting edge and involves research (often a sci-fi giveaway), and it qualifies as a thriller, probably horror and maybe a ghost story, and a character-driven psychological study as well. But it fails the sci-fi test because all or nearly all of it sits squarely within today's reach of tech capacity.

Whatever it is, it's the most striking, provocative and haunting new slice of fiction I've read this year.

Coile (actually the pseudonym of veteran novelist Andrew Pyper) wrote this one short and compact, just a couple of hundred pages - one blurb said it was a single-sitting read. And that's about what I did with it, not only because of the efficient length but because, as a good thriller will do, you're compelled to find out what happens next; not only with the characters and in the story, but also to find out what the story is actually about. There I won't be too specific, because there's a large twisty stinger at the end that shouldn't be spoiled.

William centers on artificial intelligence, or AI, and a researcher named Henry who is breaking through several barriers in his home laboratory. The whole of the story takes place at that house, roughly over the course of one day, and it gallops in what feels like real time. The driver is the increasing activity of an AI creation- named William - in that attic of that house, and what happens when William starts to understand his (or its) creator a little too well, and displays a highly active id.

You might say that Isaac Asimov's idealistic three rules for robots do not figure into this story.

Things get a little juicer when William starts to gain control of the house, accomplished because the house is a smart house - a very smart house. One of the book's chills is in the recognition that nothing here (excepting maybe some of the AI elements relating to consciousness) is beyond our current ability, and in nearly all cases is in use, in some fashion somewhere.

The fact that the reach from our everyday existence to what Coile presents here is so slight, makes the novel hard to shake.

It does get me to think again, and a little harder, about how much and what kind of tech advances I want in my living space.

There are larger questions here too, including a good basis for considering what it makes to think and to be alive.

Start your read relatively early in the day. There's no point to losing a night's sleep over it, which could happen even though the reading process isn't all that long.

But if this description sounds at all appealing, do read it.

 

Endorsement: Kamala Harris (reposted)

My favorite presidential endorsement editorial this year is also the shortest, just a single sentence. In Portland, Oregon, the Willamette Week endorsement of Democrat Kamala Harris said (in total): "On the whole, we’d rather this not be America’s last election."

The point was valid, and surely one of the better reasons, but it highlights the sad aspect of this year's presidential campaign: One of the candidates, Republican Donald Trump, is so astoundingly awful in so many ways, ways that would take a library of books to compile, that the reasons to vote for Harris - and there are good reasons - tend to migrate to the back burner. And that's unfair to us as well as to Harris.

But it can hardly be helped, because Trump really is that bad.

Eight years ago I easily compiled a list of 100 reasons not to vote for Trump; overwhelmingly, those reasons still hold up, and the four years of his presidency and the years of his post-presidency have only reinforced most of them and caused the number of additional reasons to explode. And that's even counting as a single reason things like the more than 30,000 lies he told just during his time in office.

He cannot be trusted to put the nation above himself (or his personal enrichment), nor can he be trusted with the nation's security, or the security of the people within our country. He has no respect for our military or anyone else in our government or even, for that matter, his own supporters. (Try searching his recent comments about "fat pig" in one of his recent speeches.) His mind, such as it ever was, is cratering, to the point that we seem to be watching a daily slow-motion collapse. Anyone concerned earlier this year about the age of President Joe Biden ought to remember that Trump would be the oldest person ever elected president.

He appears to have more loyalty to the nations and dictators who would do us harm, than he does to us. When he talks about "us," he talks about building mass concentration camps ("detention centers" - and not just for people here illegally, since the forces he would employ are unlikely to be very precise) and using the nation's military against our people, meaning against anyone critical of him. All of this would demolish our free speech, and press, and right to association, personal security and privacy. Many of his most vigorous supporters are eagerly working on imposing a state religion, with the effective result of an end to true freedom of religion as well. If he is elected and does half of what he says he plans to do (not to mention what's in Project 2025, which was compiled by the people who would lead and develop policy for his new administration), your freedoms are gone. None of us will be safe.

He is an active, imminent and crisis-level threat to the United States of America - to you.  Al Qaeda was never such a threat as he is.

The final evidence of that - which ought to be irrefutable to anyone with a fair mind - should come from all those people who worked with him while he was in office, and now either disown him or outright endorse Harris. The number of people involved in security and foreign policy concerns is disproportionately high among that group. The list of hundreds of prominent Republicans, a list far longer than any comparable collection of party rebels from the past, is far too long for this column; but it can be found easily enough online. No president has ever been so disowned by the people who worked in his administration.

Just one example: John F. Kelly, who served as Trump's chief of staff, remarked of Trump (among other things) "He certainly prefers the dictator approach to government.”

(Memo to J.D. Vance: Maybe you should have checked, before accepting Trump's Veep offer, into what almost happened to the last guy, who was almost hanged by a mob, which outcome Trump remarked would be perfectly fine.)

Or you could ask any of the many Republicans who have turned against their own party because of him, many saying that Trump must be defeated for the Republican Party to regain a sense of decency. Charlie Sykes was a long-time Republican radio talk show host in Wisconsin, but he could not stomach what he sees from Trump. From one of his recent comments:

Leave aside for a moment Trump’s serial lying, fraud, grifts, alleged sexual assaults, criminal indictments and one very public attempt to overthrow an election. Set aside his abandonment of free trade and fiscal restraint. This is a man who has called for terminating “all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution”; who promises a presidency built around retribution; whose campaign has become a bullhorn for bigotry; who is increasingly leaning into fascist rhetoric, and who leads his rally crowds in cheering for Russian President Vladimir Putin and booing Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky. And who now threatens to use the military against political protesters and the so-called “enemy within.”

There's a big and growing crowd of thoughtful Republicans who in no way are thrilled by the idea of voting for Democrat Harris but find they must do what they can to block Trump - to protect the country.

Bret Stephens in the New York Times, a staunchly conservative columnist, said on Monday that though he was "dragged kicking and screaming," he would vote for Harris because "I’d rather take my chances with a president whose competence I doubt and whose policies I dislike than one whose character I detest."

Or, to balance that a bit with Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, "Trump is a Russian-backed wrecking ball fighting to end: The global economy that has made us prosperous; the Western alliance that has kept us safe; American democracy that has keep us free. We cannot let this deranged, traitorous old man win."

Well. What is there left to say about Harris?

She is, for one thing, a safe choice. Put aside for the moment anything else about her, but just imagine a candidate whose career has been that of a prosecutor, a state attorney general, a U.S. senator and vice president, gaining the approval of her constituency (in the most recent case, her party's nomination) to move steadily up through the ranks. That's not the portrait of a radical or of an incompetent.

Her ability in this campaign to build, rapidly, a strong organization, unite a vast array of interests and make regular necessary and sometimes difficult decisions on the fly speaks well of the capability she would bring as president.

She has the strong potential to be a very good president, and no major red flags to the contrary are apparent.

None of the negatives - the legitimate, as opposed to the phony - I have seen about her come close to the downsides of Trump. These are two different universes.

She is clearly strong and intelligent, could represent the United States well on the world stage and at home.

Would she be the perfect solution to all our problems? No. But no president ever is.

I expect she is honest enough, even in the heat of campaign season, to acknowledge that. Her opponent obviously never would.

Eight years ago, I quoted Trump as saying at the 2016 Republican convention, "I alone can fix it." That, I said, is the statement of a man who never should be entrusted with the presidency.

But in this year, if he said "I alone can break it" - break America, shatter our nation into pieces and into a shadow of what it has always been - he might be right. There are people among us, some of whom insist they are patriots, who are fine with that.

It's on the rest of us, now in these days leading up to the election, to make sure that does not happen.

 

Nuclear War

What with all the other things on our plate, many of us have shoved to the side, or into the background, something that used to be - as in, it was when I was growing up - Topic A among serious items for discussion: Nuclear warfare.

This book, Nuclear War by Anie Jacobsen, ought to restore our consideration of the threat to its proper, and much more prominent, place.

She structures this highly readable overview within a fictional but stunningly compelling frame: A scenario for how a large-scale nuclear war could happen today or in the near future, and what would result if it did.

Such a war could happen all too easily, and the consequences could be far more absolute than many of us probably have come to think.

After all, in this day of super-tech capabilities, the prospects for shooting missiles out of the sky should be realistic, shouldn't they? (Look at what Israel has recently done to non-nuclear missile swarms sent from Iran.) But it turns out that no, we don't actually have a decent defense against something like that.

And we must surely have enough safe4guards and backups to keep sanity at the fore? Well, no. One of the scariest elements of the book is its gamed-out time frame: Less than a half hour from an initial missile launch until World War III is well and truly underway. All the critical decisions probably would be made in the span of about 15 minutes. The whole immense global war could be over and done - along with all of us - in a couple of hours. No time to prepare, or even run for a shelter (not that those would do any significant good, given the power of today's nukes.)

The scenario Jacobsen sketches involves an initial nuclear attack on the United States by North Korea, which on its surface suggests something of limited scope. But no: The whole world is rapidly drawn up, and all or nearly all of human civilization, as well as most of the human population on our globe (not to mention immense numbers of other living things) are rapidly wiped from existence.

There's no going back. Since the first person figured out how to create a nuclear weapon, humanity has been stuck with it: We could (in theory) destroy every nuclear weapon, but we can't eliminate the knowledge of how to make a new one.

Jacobsen offers few thoughts on how to improve our situation - that's one weakness in the book - but possibly additional research on blocking the weapons, improving defenses and maybe ultimately finding ways to disarm them could be helpful. Maybe, since you could never say can't-ever to technology.

In the meantime, here's a book with some solid motivation to work toward finding some answers, and avoiding the nobody-wins scenario that would be nuclear war.

 

Regretting Motherhood: A Study

The subject is not new. Way back in 1970 the advice columnist Ann Landers made big waves with her open question to her readers: Parents (or, mainly mothers) if you had it to do all over again, would you choose to have a child (or children)? The waves came when about 70% of the respondents said no. But really, the fact that the question was asked openly was shocking enough.

This is where the Israeli researcher Orna Donath digs in with Regretting Motherhood: A Study. The book is not brand new (it was published in 2017, though I just ran across it in a library search) and focuses on research and subjects in Israel not America or worldwide. But the core points remain. The whole subject of regrets about becoming a parent - she writes about mothers and fathers both in another book but focuses on mothers here - remains taboo, and has become much more of a flash point in the political climate of 2024.

This isn't really a sociological or far less a statistical study; it is closer in approach to a Studs Terkel book, excerpts from interviews with some extensive commentary. Here she interviews mothers (all are or were from Israel) who said that, as Ann Landers posited, they wouldn't do it again, and regretted having become a mother.

Why then did they become mothers? The reasons were all over the place, but often relate to going with the flows: "These accounts indicate that it is not necessarily motherhood that is perceived as natural, but rather moving forward along life’s course."

It's an almost forbidden thing to say, and many of the women say as much. The subject of sharing their misgivings with their children is raised, and almost all said they hadn't and never would; a few said they did discuss it cautiously with them after their children were adults. Nearly all made a distinction, though: While they didn't want (at least retrospectively) motherhood, that doesn't mean they don't love their children. A few questioned whether they had been good mothers; most thought they were, their underlying attitudes notwithstanding.

But the sensitive question of a discussion with the kids was far from the only concern about discussing the topic openly. (All of the women here had pseudonyms). They often described the negative blowback that came from any reference to being less than a full-throated enthusiastic parent, and some examples of comments - as when someone wrote about the topic online - showed just how fierce that could be. Honesty in this area comes with a price.

That's not to say it shouldn't be discussed. Donath (who sometimes though not usually veers into the programmatic ideological) does not overreach in her argument to suggest what percentage of mothers may feel this way. Certainly many do not. And the voices of those who do, heard here, are widely varying, differing in their experiences in all sorts of ways. Their differences are variety of human experiences.

It's in hearing the stories that normally are never told, because of such powerful forces against, that create the value here. Especially, perhaps, in 2024.

 

 

 

Undue Burden

Critical tears in our social fabric often descend to the status of"issues," become shorthand phrases or even just acronyms ... while the dirty, difficult impacts on actual human lives go unremarked.

In Undue Burden: Life and Death Decisions in Post-Roe America, writer Shefali Luthra has taken mostly the less visible and often rougher road of recounting how a massive policy change made by players in D.C. and certain statehouses actually played out among the Americans those decisions were intended to affect. They affected them, all right, but often in unexpected and frequently tragic ways.

As the title indicates, the issue is abortion, and specifically what happened in the lives of many people - those who were pregnant, working as medical or administrative personnel or in other roles - as the law surrounding what was legal, and wasn't, kept changing at blinding speed.

Many of the impacts are what you might imagine, but many - as emerges through the detailed reporting here - are less obvious. The effects in states where abortion is wholly or almost completely banned might not surprise, but some of the impacts on the still-legal states might: Massively swamped health facilities that limit the ability of patients (for abortion and other health treatments) to obtain care. Some of those challenges might ease up in time as resources shift location, but the unknowns are many.

There are some important impacts that seem to have escaped, at least mostly, news media and other journalistic attention. One example is the effect of abortion bans on medical education; in ban states, medical schooling for many areas of health - not only abortion, and not only reproductive health, but many subjects beyond - will be impaired. The training of a generation of physicians in something close to half the country is about to be badly damaged.

The individual stories are gripping; the tension and risk involved is (in the reading) novelistic.

And like any good book about social changes, there's a nod to what lies ahead. Luthra doesn't, course, try to produce a crystal ball; we'd have to know for sure what the results of November's general elections will be before we could even hazard a guess.

But while Luthra's story may for now lack a second act, the lessons from the first are evident: A lot of people are likely to be badly damaged, and probably will die, as long as our current path is unchanged.

 

Revolutionary Spring 1848-49

At about 750 pages, Revolutionary Spring: Europe Aflame and the Fight for a New World, 1848-1849, may seem a little much in the effort department to justify the time: A tightly-written an detailed review of the many concurrent revolutions erupting across Europe at almost exactly the same time, in the middle of the 19th century - revolutions that nearly all failed and did not revive.

Unless you're already well up to speed with European history of the period, most of the people involved won't be familiar either (though a number of them were striking characters with dramatic story arcs). The best-known probably is Karl Marx, who was merely an observer of the action (he wasn't at all well-known at that time, and is only a minor figure in the book) and often misread the events as they transpired.

What's the point?

The point here, besides filling in a lot of prospective gaps in knowledge of history (it filled some for me), is the usefulness of seeing the dynamic, how these eruptions from seemingly out of nowhere did emerge, what ground was needed to sustain them, what happened at first and why they were crushed.

And the point of absorbing that is the connection with our world today. The dynamics of human society may change over time but human nature often stays much the same, and while the author Christopher Clark makes only a few quick, peripheral explicit references to the state of our world today, a thoughtful read will find parallels between that unusual time and place and ours - with some implicit lessons for what could happen if our future turns darker.

The story here starts at around 1830, nearly a generation after the Napoleonic wars and at a time when Europe's political and governmental structure seemed mostly settled, that being a major goal of a lot of people, not just royalty, after the upheaval of the Frank revolutionary period. But while Napoleon and the politics of the earlier revolutionary time may have been crushed militarily and administratively, with mostly strong monarchies left in place, the ideas and desires that had made them popular in the first place had not gone away. France had a small-scale revolution, resulting in a regime change, in 1830, and the shock waves from it spread across Europe. While modern transportation and communication weren't yet around (no long-distance railroads or telegraphs quite yet) word of what was happening tended to spread fast, resulting in 1848 in a series of revolts, monarchical abdications and radical takeovers in country after country, almost all within a few weeks of each other, even though no one was actively trying to orchestrate it that way. The rebels were acting as a result of receiving distant signals - newspapers and other publications were central to this, as the internet would be now -  but there was no coordination.

The details of how all this happened should in some ways seem startlingly familiar to people in our age. An example: The radical rebels were extremely popular in the capital and main regional cities, and in many cases were able to chase monarchs out of town. But the monarchs didn't have to go far: The people in the countryside were much friendlier to them, and provided a strong base of support when time came, as it did, for the counter-revolution. That's one reason the powers that got removed were able to return. (Clark does make some references to how, later on, many of them would lose their way in years yet to come.)

The background is not simply analytical; Clark threads the historical narrative with accounts from people, famous and unknown, put concrete detail, sometimes of a grisly nature, on the proceedings.

We understand our world better when we can look at it from different angles. In Revolutionary Spring, there's a fresh angle for looking at where we are now, and where we could be going.

(image)

 

Chasing Hope: A Reporter’s Life

The distance was a bit of dissonance in this case. I attended a book signing and speaking event for an author who lives just a few miles north of where I do. But the book in question had reach around the globe, and the story opened with a scene in Congo - where the author was on board a rickety plane that looked to be about to crash.

He is Nicholas Kristof, a New York Times columnist and for years before that a for4eign correspondent for the newspaper. Obviously he survived the rough landing and, just afterward, he pulled out his satellite phone and called his wife. The idea was to tell her he was okay, but when she came on the line, he decided otherwise: The story was best told in person.

Except, that soon afterward his wife got a call from the home office in New York which included the comment that people there were happy Nick had survived. Oops. The lesson after that, Kristof recounted, was: Immediate transparency about important events is helpful in a marriage.

Kristof's memoir, Chasing Hope: A Reporter's Life, is packed with stories about things learned in the field. He's Harvard and Oxford-educated, but much of what he recounts here - and a lot of the book is devoted to the practical work of researching and writing about places around the world, many remote and some of them extremely dangerous - which plainly constitutes its own form of grad school.

Some of that relates to how to get the work done (how, for example, you get past checkpoints filled with armed soldiers when you're in the4 country illegally). Some of it relates to how people live in places extremely different from the United States (the hazards of introducing himself in certain locales) by his nickname).

But some of it too comes from what you learn when you're on the ground and can see for yourself - which can look a lot different than it does from a distance. That applies not only to distance places in Africa and Asia but even to his home town area around Yamhill, where many of the problems facing parts of rural America can come into sharp focus.

There are plenty of reporter memoirs out, and many of them make for lively reading. (In the last few years, I especially liked Seymour Hersh's.) None I've seen, though, has been livelier, or covers more ground, than this one. He talks in detail about life growing up in small-town Oregon, about his time in universities and freelancing articles about places around the globe - an achievement that seemed to me as remarkable as anything else he has done - and dealing with deadly threats, from illness to being in a crowd fire upon by Chinese troops at Tiananmen Square (then frantically running on foot miles back to his residence to send the story so the paper would have its own version).

There's plenty of solid fact and earned wisdom here. And if you're in the mood for an adventure story, you can find a while pile of them between these covers.

Photo/World Economic Forum from Cologny, Switzerland, World Economic Forum Annual Meeting Davos 2010, CC BY-SA 2.0.