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Short coattails

Political prognosticators for months have talked about the nation’s battleground states, and Oregon has not been included in the mix.

That’s because Oregonians almost certainly will vote in November for Democrat Kamala Harris for president, judging from recent election history.

Oregon was once a Republican bastion in presidential elections, but no Republican presidential candidate has taken the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Most of Oregon’s presidential elections have not been especially close since then, either. Donald Trump only pulled in 39% of the vote in 2016 and 40% in 2020, giving a landslide to Democrats. Other Republican presidential candidates in the last three decades haven’t done much better.

Presidential victories often help lower-ballot candidates from the same party, which could matter in Oregon where several key races are competitive.

The highest-profile race is in the 5th Congressional District between incumbent Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Democrat Janelle Bynum. The 6th District rematch contest, between incumbent Democrat Andrea Salinas and Republican challenger Mike Erickson, could feel the ripple effects, too, and so might a few legislative races.

But the local record of top candidates helping lower-ballot contenders win by riding on their coattails is mixed, and even nationally, research has been inconclusive.

The statistics-oriented 538 website cited studies finding an advantage from a fifth to half of a percentage point for a down-ballot candidates if their party’s candidate for president is ahead by 1 point, with the advantage growing as the lead increases. Those amounts might not be large enough to matter in most cases, but if the local race is close – as it was in the Oregon 5th and 6th districts in 2022 – it can be decisive.

After evaluating numbers from 1992 to 2016, the 538 site reported, “We found a strong correlation (0.655) between the national margins for presidential and House races.” Earlier studies have found that popular presidential candidates tend to add to the number of U.S. House seats their party wins, though results can vary depending on the local conditions.

Not all voters respond the same way. Columbia University Professor Robert Erikson has noted the impact of “balancing” when voters choose candidates across party lines – such as a president from one party and a member of Congress from another – to keep each party in check.

And, of course, different states and regions have different records. In Oregon, there’s very limited evidence of a coattail effect in congressional races. For example, in the last four general elections, Republicans continued to win by landslides in the heavily Republican 2nd Congressional District in eastern Oregon in both the 2016 presidential year and in the 2022 midyear election. Democratic wins in other congressional races also showed no coattail effect in presidential years compared with midterm elections.

And presidential races have not appeared to have much of an impact on the Legislature. From the election of 2006 to present, each general election has yielded between 22 and 30 Republican House members. The Republican high spot came with the midterm elections of 2010 and 2006, which would indicate a little advantage for the party in nonpresidential years. The Republican low spots fell in the midterm of 2018 and the presidential of 2020. Overall, the shifts have been minor and subtle over the last dozen years.

In a looser sense, if one of the parties has significantly more energy and enthusiasm – which may derive in part from national politics – that can filter down to local candidates and party organizations. Oregon Democrats may be feeling some of that with Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential candidacy in recent weeks.

But a true presidential coattail effect is likely to be short, if anything, in Oregon.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

 

Reasons and ranked choice

In November 2022, Democrat Tina Kotek was elected governor of Oregon with 47% of the vote. That was enough to win the general election, since her total was slightly higher than that of her leading opponent, Republican Christine Drazan.

She was able to win with less than a majority of support because other candidates siphoned off votes. But what might have happened if the rules said no one could be elected governor with less than half – 50% – of the vote?

What often happens in this case in places with ranked choice voting is that a runoff election is held between the top two contenders.

The runoff decision could be made in the general election if voters could select their second or third choices. That’s what Oregon Measure 117, setting up ranked-choice voting, would do. When voters pick their preferred candidate for governor or for other designated offices, they would also be able to choose a second-place choice.

The result could have been different – or not – had Oregon already had a ranked choice voting system in place when Kotek was elected. Oregon has enough close elections, which usually are won by Democrats, that you might expect Democrats to put up a brick wall against ranked choice voting. Not so: The large number of legislators who signed on in public support all are Democrats, and the large list of organizations backing it as well are Democratic-leaning, with Democratic lawmakers in the Legislature providing the votes to refer the measure to the ballot.

The measure would apply to national and statewide offices but it would exclude legislative races, which would still be won by the top vote-getter. It also would allow cities, counties, school districts and special districts to use ranked choice voting if they preferred.

Nevertheless, Oregon Republicans have generally opposed the measure.

One reason might be the situation in Idaho, where a ranked choice initiative on the ballot this year has been far more publicly controversial than it has in Oregon, causing a split within the Republican Party.

Idaho’s proposal, which made it to the ballot through grassroots organizing and signature gathering, would create ranked choice elections and also change the primary election system. Right now, only registered Republicans can vote in Republican primaries, while Democratic primaries are open to all. If the ranked choice measure were adopted, all primaries would be open.

Republicans in the Idaho Legislature oppose the proposition and so does the state party organization. Idaho Republican Chair Dorothy Moon, in arguing against the initiative, said, “Leftists have long been frustrated that Idaho is a conservative state. Having given up on changing hearts and minds with persuasive arguments, they now want to change the rules of the game. This is part of a long pattern of an insatiable thirst for power: mass mail-in ballots, gerrymandering, unmonitored drop boxes and even allowing noncitizens to vote.”

Idaho Attorney General Raúl Labrador is also against it, but this week his attempt to squash it through the courts failed with the Idaho Supreme Court dismissing his petition on procedural grounds.

Ranked choice voting – and open primaries – has become one of the hottest political issues of the year in Idaho. But it is less a battle between Republicans and Democrats and more between the Trump-oriented Republicans who lead the state party organization, and more traditional and moderate Republicans. That latter group supports ranked choice voting.

The Oregon Republican Party’s opposition to ranked choice voting has been framed more as concern about the process than about an ideological or partisan advantage. A GOP newsletter in Oregon described it as “a snake oil sales pitch that sounds reasonable until you realize too late that you have been flim-flammed out of your vote and the public has been manipulated into a computer-derived configuration of the vote.”

Its main argument is that ranked choice voting is too complex and might exhaust voters with options. But that hasn’t been reported as a significant problem in Maine, Alaska or other jurisdictions that have tried it.

Ranked choice voting does have a bias: toward candidates who are at least generally acceptable to at least half of the voters. Candidates who appeal to the extremes are disadvantaged. The same would apply, generally, to political parties: If your candidates are likely to appeal to more people in any given area, they’ll do better. If not, they won’t.

In both Oregon and Idaho, Democrats figure their candidates will appeal to a broader spectrum of voters. But the Republicans – at least the Donald Trump-based Republicans like those leading the political parties in each state – sense they need to rely on a smaller support base, at least in smaller places.

Watch the election results on the ballot issue in both Oregon and Idaho to see who prevails.

This column and photo were originally published in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

 

More than money

Oregon’s public defender problems have been getting much better and much worse at the same time.

Finding a solution that makes sense doesn’t involve doing what most people have long argued: spending more money on legal services. The answer lies in how the money is managed and spent, and how the workload is organized.

In all, it resembles any of several serious Oregon problems – drug abuse and homelessness among them – where the willingness to do the right thing, and the ability to pay for it, are not the bottleneck. The problem lies in smartly managing the problem-solving.

The problems with the public defense of people charged with a crime who cannot afford an attorney but have the right to one is not new, and legislators and the state executive branch actively have been working on it for years.

The Oregon Legislature has responded. The Oregon Public Defense Commission, which is assigned to manage and deliver public attorneys for at-need defendants, has been given a massive infusion of new money, its budget more than doubling in the past seven years.

The larger picture in defense caseloads looks better than even a couple of years ago. In January 2022, the American Bar Association produced a report called The Oregon Project: An Analysis of the Oregon Public Defense System and Attorney Workloads Standards, which found that Oregon had fewer than a third of the attorneys, or more exactly attorney work-hours, needed to meet the the demand and  and ought to have the full-time equivalent of about 1,300 more attorneys.

Since then, other states have studied exactly how much attorney time is needed in public defense, and when variations in the types of cases are factored in – a simple misdemeanor versus a knot of complex felonies, for example – it turns out Oregon’s need is far smaller than estimated by the bar association. Those studies indicate it needs about 600 attorneys.

But the problem is more complicated than that.

There’s been more focus on providing counsel for in-custody defendants, but the problem seems to have worsened among the larger group of out-of-custody defendants, with the lack of counsel problem worsening overall.

Their ranks have swelled after a federal judge last October ordered that any inmate not assigned an attorney within a week had to be released from county jails. (The legal debate about the judge’s action is ongoing.)

On top of that, the average time an out-of-custody felony defendant now is without counsel is running upward of 100 days.

This has been happening even at a time when the numbers of Oregon crimes, notably property crime, have been trending downward.

Under terms of the state-attorney contracts awarded in June 2022, the defense attorneys are limited in the number of cases they can accept. By April of 2023, however, many attorneys already had hit those ceilings and could not take on new clients as new defendants entered the system. In Multnomah County, private lawyers overall reported hitting 122% of the maximum caseload in recent months. So in the spring of 2023, the state throttled back the number of cases defense attorneys could take.

There have also been serious problems with billing by the commission. The amount of time elapsed for payment to attorneys has grown from just over a week in 2016 to more than 45 days this year – a situation bound to become unacceptable to many attorneys and other contractors, such as private investigators.

More flexible rules for attorney contracting could help, along with a sharper focus on problem-solving and less on rule-making. But there’s a larger systemic block getting in the way of solving many state problems that both agency directors and the governor, and the Legislature, should start to consider more broadly.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

Harris and the Oregon delegates

On May 21, Oregon’s Democratic-registered voters made their choice for their nominee for president. It was not close: 87% of them – about 362,500 voters – weighed in for the incumbent, President Joe Biden.

Oregon has been Biden country for some time. In the 2020 election, Biden won Oregon’s vote by 16 percentage points, well above his national average.

In all, Oregon will have 78 delegates at the 2024 national convention, 12 of which are “superdelegates” who can vote as they choose but cannot vote during the first round and will only cast votes if a candidate doesn’t receive majority support in the first round. The other 66 were chosen based on the primary election results, and Biden has been slated to receive the votes of all of them. State law requires delegates to sign a pledge to continue supporting their candidate through the first two rounds of balloting unless the candidate releases them from that pledge or receives less than 35% of the nominating votes.

Now that Biden is no longer running for president, and has thrown his backing to Vice President Kamala Harris, he has effectively released them to do as they will.

In a strict sense, the delegates, including Oregon’s, have the power. No longer bound to vote for Biden, they can choose to support at the convention anyone they like.

The old political adage in presidential politics was that Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line. Will Oregon’s Democrats turn that on its head this year?

Probably. Delegates around the country could react in different ways, but there’s reason to think Oregon’s delegates are likely – barring any new unforeseen developments – to join the Harris campaign.

In many states, Democrats are scattered, geographically and organizationally. In Oregon, they’re relatively organized, reflecting the organized labor structure that has helped them to so many wins. In some states, many delegates may be atomized, with little outreach from other nearby party members. In Oregon, that’s less likely to happen.

And what have the leaders been saying?

Some had not yet weighed in on the nomination question in the hours after Biden announced he was withdrawing. They confined themselves to praise for his leadership. Like other state party organizations, Oregon’s is  supposed to avoid weighing in on candidates for a nomination until the question is settled.

But by Monday, many of Democratic leaders in Oregon, who are also superdelegates, had voiced support for Harris. The big name is Sen. Ron Wyden, probably Oregon’s leading Democrat, who declared, “I’m all in to support Vice President Harris with all my energy.” Oregon’s other senator, Jeff Merkley, also voiced support for Harris as did Oregon’s Democratic House members, Reps. Earl Blumenauer, Suzanne Bonamici, Val Hoyle, and Andrea Salinas.

Gov. Tina Kotek, another superdelegate, also backed Harris on Monday, releasing a statement through her campaign that said she was “proud” to endorse the vice president.

“She’s tough, she’s smart and she’s ready to unite the country. Kamala Harris should be our next president,” Kotek said.

Some individual party officials expressed support for Harris as well. At least one convention delegate from Oregon, Kevin Stine of Medford, said he would vote for Harris.

Matt Keating, a member of the Democratic National Committee from Oregon who is also a member of the Eugene City Council, signed a letter including scores of names of Democratic officials around the county, declaring support for Harris.

Many delegates and party officials have not made a formal or public statement so far, but when they do, those who have are likely to play a visible role in the discussions and possibly help set its course. Some states Tennessee and South Carolina are two already have held Democratic delegate meet-ups, either in person or virtually, to discuss options, and Oregon could and probably will do something similar.

The Harris campaign has a solid beachhead in Oregon’s Democratic organization, and it probably will grow swiftly over the next week or two. There’s been no apparent pushback either from other prospective candidates or even from the alternative suggestion of arranging a competitive battle – a gladiatorial “thunderdome” approach.

Oregon’s role in deciding the nomination is not among the largest – bigger states have many more delegates but it could be on the front end of deciding on a nominee. That might make Oregon a more important state in the Democratic presidential nominating process than anyone would have thought early this year, or even when the party’s primary voters were casting their ballots.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

Homelessness help starts in the cities

The widespread take on the June 28 U.S. Supreme Court decision sustaining Grants Pass restrictions on public camping was widely interpreted as kicking the issue, as it did with abortion in the Dobbs decision, to the states.

In many states, few of which have state laws on the subject, that may be the effect. Oregon, which does have a state law on the subject, may be different. Here, the effect of the decision, which simply said the Grants Pass rules were not “cruel or unusual,” was to place the subject back before individual communities.

Oregon’s state law, House Bill 3115, was passed in 2021 following an earlier court decision about the Grants Pass rules. Its lead sponsor was then-speaker and now-Gov. Tina Kotek, and it sets some limits on city and county action on homeless camping, saying that communities cannot pass any unreasonable restrictions.

Following the Supreme Court decision, the next steps are likely to be – and should be – taken by local governments. As they act, they may run into the walls of state law and regulation.

That should make it clearer what action the Oregon Legislature ought to take.

HB 3115’s core provision says: “Any city or county law that regulates the acts of sitting, lying, sleeping or keeping warm and dry outdoors on public property that is open to the public must be objectively reasonable as to time, place and manner with regards to persons experiencing homelessness.”

Some of those terms are defined in the bill, but that’s about it. Local ordinances have to be “objectively reasonable,” but it doesn’t define “reasonable,” only saying that the availability of local shelters should be borne in mind in any restrictions. The anti-camping rules in Grants Pass that sparked the decision barred people from sleeping publicly with “bedding,” set fines of $295 and much more if not paid. Orders to stay away from parks could follow. As a last step, jail time was possible. The Supreme Court decision allows all that.

Would that necessarily violate the Oregon state law? We may have to wait for an Oregon court to say.

That may be the way it goes around the state, because many local communities have been moving ahead on the subject, and may move faster now.

Not all communities in Oregon have a problem with homelessness; most smaller towns do not. But larger cities, especially where more extensive social and other services are located, tend to have larger numbers, and the pressures to regulate, if not resolve, homelessness have been growing there.

Salem, Bend, Medford, Corvallis and McMinnville are among the cities that have passed rules relating to camping areas where homeless people have congregated. With the new Grants Pass ruling in hand, pressure locally likely will increase to do more.

Portland has a new revised camping ordinance, effective July 1, which Mayor Ted Wheeler said would be enforced at first on camps around the city that “present the greatest health and safety risks.” The plan is to develop a series of assessments and then refer them to city agencies, including the police.

Portland’s approach seems likely to shift and change in the months ahead, not least because the planned assessments may uncover information and ideas that change views of what should be done. Some of the same may happen in other cities, too, as they try policies to meet area concerns about homeless health and safety issues, and advocates for the homeless push back.

Although Kotek said she wants to keep the current law on the subject in place, a number of Oregon legislators are likely to weigh in as well. Two Democrats, Sen. Mark Meek of Gladstone and Rep. Paul Evans of Monmouth, have said they would like to see more specificity in the state law so that cities have clearer guidance about what they can do.

That’s true. But the way to get there probably is to allow the cities to experiment – and they should start on that promptly – and see where the problems, legal, practical or moral, turn out to be. As they discover more, legislators probably will be able to better figure out what they should do next.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

(image/public domain, George Hodan)

 

 

A MAGA tilt but not a lockdown

Conservative southern Oregon, often an afterthought for many other Oregonians, may be the most politically dynamic large area in Oregon.

Few other areas show as much potential for political change.

Consider a couple of large Medford-area events just a few miles apart and on the same day, June 22.

The Jackson County Fairgrounds was dominated by the Republican political rally called MOGA 2024, the acronym standing for “Make Oregon Great Again.” Its headliners included national figures, including Mike Lindell, the MyPillow founder and advocate for Donald Trump. This may be the only really large-scale Oregon event on this year’s Republican calendar, presented as “Come help us take back southern Oregon.” It was heavily promoted by the local Republican organization, by other groups around the region, and around the dial on area radio stations.

From a pro-Trump perspective, you might wonder if there’s much to take back in the southern Oregon area. Most of this large sector of the state already votes Republican.

But it may not be as locked-down some may think. The Jackson-Josephine counties seem to be on the cusp of something subtle that events like MOGA could be critical in influencing: Deciding if the area becomes MAGA-dominated enough that other points of view are swamped, which hasn’t happened yet.

One piece of evidence in that argument is the second event held only a few miles from the MOGA event, over in Pear Blossom Park in Medford, where organizers were holding the well-attended 3rd annual Medford Pride event. One participant said, “It gives a space for young people to be free to express themselves however they want. And an opportunity in an area that’s not always the most accepting to really give an opportunity for our community to be queer.”

These two events may fit into the larger picture of conservative southern Oregon as pieces of a puzzle shifting and developing.

The two big counties in the area are Jackson (where Medford is the county seat) and Josephine (Grants Pass).

Jackson leans Republican, but not by a great deal. In the last two decades, it has voted Democratic for president just once, in 2008, but no one has won its presidential vote by as much as 51% since 2004. Its legislative delegation has included mostly Republicans, and Republicans hold county government, but Democrats as well, including state Sen.Jeff Golden and state Rep. Pam Marsh, who represent a large share of the county’s voters. There are some indicators it has been moving gently away from hard right positions. It is one of 11 counties in Oregon to legalize therapeutic psilocybin. Hard-line positions on property taxes seem to have eased a little in recent years. Jackson shows no signs of becoming a blue county, but its tint seems to be shading gradually purple.

Josephine County is more solidly Republican. No Democrat has won its vote for the presidency since 1936, the longest such run of any Oregon county, and Trump just cleared 60% in both of his runs. Its state and local officials are Republicans, and there are no indications that will change in the near future.

Still, there are indicators of attitude shifts. Josephine has been one of the most rigorous anti-tax counties in Oregon, along with neighbors such as Curry and Douglas. Having experienced some deep austerity in local services, however, voters seem to have recentered on the subject.

Libraries are a good example. All libraries in the county were closed in May 2007 for lack of county funding, but since then libraries have been reopened, and a library funding measure was passed in 2017 with 53% of the vote. Law enforcement is another useful case study. Severely crunched funding during several years for the sheriff’s office was addressed in this decade with creation of a law enforcement taxing district, also approved by voters.

Both counties seem to have developed stronger tourism, recreation and wine industry sectors, which over time usually lead to a moderation in politics, and some of that seems to be playing out. That’s especially true in the well-known cultural and tourism centers at Ashland and Jacksonville, both growing and prospering, but also to a degree in both Medford and Grants Pass and several smaller communities.

Most of the more rural areas remain hard-right conservative, and the traditional “Don’t Tread on Me” and other similar signage is not hard to find outside the cities. These areas are a MAGA redoubt, and few people outside their tribe make themselves visible. That absence of a contrary culture allows for more sweeping adoption of the MAGA message.

But increasingly, alternative messages are becoming visible in some of the cities. They are not near changing the partisan lean of the area. But they may be enough to slow an overwhelming adoption in the region of support for Trump and his allies. Much depends on whether people are exposed more to one message or the other.

The margins are close. That is why events like the MOGA event and the Medford Pride activity, in their different ways, may have some real rippling effects.

 

The state of Oregon journalism

Two big slices of news about Oregon newspapers fell shortly after Memorial Day, sending shock waves across the state.

One was the sale of one of the largest Oregon newspaper groups, Portland-based Pamplin Media, and the other was the announcement of major cutbacks in another, EO Media Group, which owns the Bend Bulletin and other newspapers. Both show the immediate urgency for finding a way to rescue community news in Oregon – sooner, not later. Among other things, the Oregon Legislature urgently needs to take up the subject in its next session.

Consider where Oregon newspapers were just 12 years ago, when Steve Bagwell of the McMinnville News-Register and I co-wrote a book, called “New Editions,” about the recent history and prospects for newspapers in the Northwest. We counted 82 paid-subscription, general circulation newspapers, 16 of them dailies, in Portland, Eugene, Salem, Bend, Medford, Albany, Corvallis, Pendleton, Astoria, Ashland, Ontario, Coos Bay, The Dalles, La Grande, Roseburg and Baker City.

Since then an economic hurricane, a perfect storm, swept through the ranks of those newspapers. Many of the dailies which published six or seven days a week now publish three or four days a week if they’re not gone completely. The large business office buildings they occupied nearly all have been sold, along with nearly all newspaper presses, and increasing numbers of newspapers now consist of one or two reporters working out of their homes, with no office support at all. Some Oregon newspapers have been sold to investor groups, and where the papers still are actual print papers, they’re far smaller.

That has largely been the case with Pamplin Media Group, which owned 22 newspapers from Prineville to Forest Grove and Madras to Portland, more than any other owner in the state. Their operations and staff have diminished, But they have continued to publish on regular weekly schedules with reports about their communities.

On June 1, all of those papers were sold to Carpenter Media Group of Natchez, Mississippi, which, until recently, mainly had focused on southern-state newspapers. Pamplin is not its only major recent purchase, even in the Northwest, however. Last year, with backing from two Canadian investment companies, it bought 150 newspapers and other media from Black Press Media of Surrey in British Columbia, and included dozens of Washington state newspapers. Carpenter is now by far the largest newspaper owner in the Northwest.

It appears to be operated by former executives of Boone Newsmedia, which owns dozens of papers in the southern U.S. But other than reports about Carpenter’s many purchases there’s little public information about it – or where the money for all these massive buys is coming from. Carpenter has been buying large papers as well as small, including the dailies in Honolulu, Hawaii and Everett, Washington. What that means for Oregon’s largest collection of newspapers is far from clear.

The development with EO Media Group didn’t involve change of ownership, but it did mark a drastic change of operations.

EO Media Group, named for one of its papers, the East Oregonian of Pendleton, publishes a dozen newspapers in the state, most east of the Cascades. Operated by the Forrester family of Astoria, it has been a rescuer in recent years of community newspapers. In 2019, it bought The (Bend) Bulletin out of bankruptcy and kept it running. When the daily Mail Tribune of Medford shut down, EO started a new paper there, Rogue Valley Times.

EO said on June 3 that it will cut its 185 employees by 28, end print editions at the papers in La Grande, Hermiston, Baker City, John Day and Enterprise, and reduce the number of editions per week at Medford, Bend and Pendleton.

The areas in Oregon that are news deserts – or at least extremely arid regions – are expanding rapidly. And considering the scope of these recent large developments, the collapse of Oregon’s newspapers seems to be picking up speed rather than slowing.

Oregonians need news reports to decide how to vote and participate in their communities, and the businesses that have made that possible are dissolving rapidly. This amounts to a real, immediate crisis for the government and society in Oregon, as it does in many other places.

The answers are far from clear.

The Oregon Legislature did devote some attention to the problem last year with House Bill 2605. The proposal would have prompted a study of the situation but it never had a floor vote. Still, that was a good start. Next year, it ought to mark out serious time and attention to figuring out how to help Oregon citizens keep up with the news around them, so the system of self-governance we have had for generations can continue to function.

Corrections: An earlier version of this article misidentified Boone Newsmedia Inc. and misspelled EO Media Group. It also misstated when the Oregon Legislature considered grants for local media. 

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

Easing up on the ideology

Oregon’s highest-profile primary elections did not appear to carry strong messages: Voters sporadically showed what they wanted or didn’t.

But there were exceptions. Two examples in particular, both on the county level in Multnomah and Yamhill counties, were notably clear in demanding a change of direction from what had been endorsed before. The message in both was unmistakable: Extremes in experiments and ideological projects are unwelcome, and what’s wanted is a government that works.

The race for Multnomah County district attorney concerned maybe the most embattled political figure in Oregon so far this decade: Mike Schmidt.

Schmidt had prosecutor and policy experience when he was elected Multnomah DA in 2020 in a landslide. He ran clearly as one of several “reform” big-city prosecutors around the country. On election night that year, he said: “The message from Multnomah County voters was loud and clear: They are ready for major reform in our criminal justice system.”

Problems multiplied fast even before he started and by the time his predecessor resigned. That was the summer of George Floyd demonstrations in Portland, of long-running rioting and vandalism, and in the months to come of increased homelessness and open drug usage in the wake of passage of Initiative 110. Schmidt’s professed approach, moving away from harsh enforcement, became much less popular. Several eventual statements from Schmidt calling for a crackdown on violence and vandalism didn’t land well.

His standing was damaged, too, by accusations of weak management. But the core complaint against Schmidt, reflecting widespread polling in Portland over the last four years, is that public safety conditions needed strong improvement, quickly and decisively.

Schmidt’s opponent this year, Nathan Vasquez, who has been a prosecutor for 25 years, ran with the implicit call for a return to something like what Portlanders grew to expect during the three decades it was run by Mike Schrunk, who made gradual reforms along the way but operated in a mostly quiet and non-controversial but professionally effective, and politically popular way.

The law and order message was so clear that it reached the White House. The website Politico reported, “The defeat of a liberal Portland prosecutor at the hands of a tough-on-crime challenger has hardened a view among top White House officials that Democrats need to further distance themselves from their left flank on law-and-order issues.”

Local Republicans may take notice, too, especially of the areas of Multnomah that voted most strongly for Vasquez, on the east side around Gresham but also in parts of the west Portland area.

A comparable message on competence and professionalism, with a very different background, emerged a few miles to the west in Yamhill County, in a race for county commissioner.

The incumbent was Lindsay Berschauer, a media consultant who was elected to the Yamhill County Commission in 2020. With close ties to the county’s effective Republican organization, she won a four-year term and aligned on the commission, generally, with Mary Starrett, a former Constitution Party candidate for governor in 2006.

Berschauer, now chair of the commission, became contentious enough to become the target of a recall attempt just two years later; she won that by about the same percentage she had in 2020, around 52% to 48%. Berschauer did not adopt a cautious approach, however. She faced more controversy, with culture war issues and the commission’s rejection of a proposed rail to trail project that cost the county $2 million.

An editorial in the McMinnville News-Register said this year, “Berschauer seems to relish being a lightning rod. A professional political consultant by trade, primarily in the Portland metro area, she publicly ripped members of the county staff in her first meeting.”

Her main opponent this year, David “Bubba” King, presented himself as an unaligned and nonpartisan contender, in opposition to ideologically driven anger and roiling local government battles. He engaged in efforts to tamp down some of those activities in his home Newberg area, such as in his local school district, and turned his attention to Berschauer late in 2023.

In a three-person primary race, King fell short by only a handful of votes from winning outright, but Bertschauer’s take of the vote dropped to about 44%. She is likely to fall short in the November runoff.

The result was widely seen as a shift on what a majority of Yamhill’s voters are willing to tolerate. The county is well to the right of Multnomah, but the core message from the voters was similar: Pay attention to the county’s work and put ideology to the side.

If there’s any similarity in attitude around the country this fall, that message could be meaningful in the upcoming general elections.

This column appeared originally in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

Opting for the familiar

After all the primary campaign season drama this year, most of the Oregon results tended toward the familiar in both parties.

And most races weren’t even close.

On Tuesday, Oregon had two relatively critical Democratic primary contests, in ways important both locally and nationally that  collected plenty of attention in the state and beyond. Both were resolved sharply, by strong margins that reflected the sensibilities of Oregon’s – and the nation’s – Democratic leadership.

In Oregon’s 3rd House District, seven candidates were competing to replace veteran U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer, but the race clearly was going to come down to two: state Rep. Maxine Dexter and former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal. Dexter has been a productive legislator working smoothly with Democratic leadership, while Jayapal was perhaps best known as the sister of a member of Congress from Seattle, U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who is one of the most visible and sometimes controversial progressives in the House.

Dexter got the mass of support from contributors and Democratic-leaning organizations, and her lopsided win – about twice the number of votes Jayapal received – looked like a clear demonstration of Democratic organization clout.

In Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, one of the half-dozen top battleground districts nationally this year, the Democratic nominee from two years ago, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, faced state legislator Janelle Bynum, each seeking to take on first-term Republican incumbent Lori Chavez-DeRemer. McLeod-Skinner only narrowly lost to Chavez-DeRemer last time, and the primary contest was widely described as competitive, with the sole public poll giving Bynum a slight lead.

On election day, Bynum’s lead wasn’t slight at all. In results on Tuesday night, she led McLeod-Skinner in five of the six counties, with only one vote reported in that race in Jefferson County, and that was for McLeod-Skinner. Overall, Bynum led by more than two to one. Some of that probably had to do with negative headlines for McLeod-Skinner in the last few months, and reports that Republican-backed money was supporting her in an effort to elect a weaker candidate in November. But the larger factor may have been a solid weighing-in of the Democratic establishment, from Gov. Tina Kotek on down, on Bynum’s behalf.

If one trend line ran through most of the notable Oregon primary results on Tuesday, it might have been the absence of revolt against the powers that be.

In the top statewide race, for Secretary of State, speculation had run in favor of the well-established Treasurer Tobias Read, who two years ago had experience running for governor. On Tuesday, he drew a stunningly wide lead, winning about 70% of the vote in the Democratic primary over his chief opponent, Democratic state Sen. James Manning. The margin of the Democratic legislator seeking to replace him, state Sen. Elizabeth Steiner, against a candidate who had run for the office twice before, Jeff Gudman, was even larger – 77%.

The familiar and the established mostly did well on the Republican side, too. In the 1st Senate District on the southern Oregon coast, a determined effort to take out incumbent Sen. David Brock Smith fell far short as he received twice the vote of the nearest of his three competitors. In the 2nd Senate District in Josephine and parts of Douglas and Jackson counties, Noah Robinson, the son of incumbent Art Robinson, decisively won the nomination for the seat there. And in the 28th Senate District in Klamath County, Diane Linthicum, the wife of Dennis Linthicum, the incumbent and the Republican secretary of state nominee, was winning easily.

The most striking but not surprising result in the whole state may have been in the 12th House District in rural Lane County, where incumbent Rep. Charlie Conrad, a Dexter Republican who split from his party on a vote concerning abortion and gender care, was getting only about a fifth of the vote against Darin Harbick, a challenger opposing him mainly on that issue.

There, as elsewhere, the message seemed to be: Stick with the party line or it may line up against you.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.