When Boise attorney Terri Pickens this week outlined her plans to seek the Democratic nomination for governor, the shape of her discussion of the Republican opposition should have drawn a little attention.
The shape of both her campaign and of Idaho politics, though, have gone through a significant change in the last few months.
Her recent blasts across the partisan aisle were directed straight to Governor Brad Little, on subjects ranging from ICE raids, school vouchers and abortion. One of her campaign press releases from earlier this year is headlined, “Lies, damned lies and Governor Brad Little.”
Nothing unusual or surprising there. But it merits comment for three reasons, one minor and the other two more important.
The minor one: Little, now serving his second elective term as governor, has not announced his candidacy for a third. The expectation that he will is near universal (and won’t be contested here), not least given the attention he’s paid to making nice with the Trump White House. In return for that effort, President Donald Trump gave him an early endorsement - again, well in advance of Little or anyone else of note formally declaring for the office. But then, the fact that it happened in itself constitutes reason for thinking Little in fact will run.
One major reason for noting the directness of the Democratic attack is that ever since the last round of elections for statewide offices, in 2022, there’s also been a widespread expectation that Attorney General Raul Labrador would run for governor, against Little if he filed again, in this coming election.
And such a challenge has been taken highly seriously. Up to a few months ago, conventional Idaho political wisdom seemed to picture Labrador with the upper hand in a primary battle. Labrador did after all in 2022 oust a 20-year well-respected Republican attorney general. The activist wing of the Republican Party, including the state party organization and many of the party’s legislators, have seemed more aligned with Labrador than Little, who has drawn criticism from some Republicans about as often as from Democrats.
In 2018, when Little and Labrador both ran for governor, Little prevailed by a narrow 4.7% during a Republican primary contest. Many Idaho analysts concluded Labrador would have won had not a third major candidate, Tommy Ahlquist, also been on the ballot. And in that year Trump, then president, apparently was close to endorsing Labrador but in the end stayed out.
Then came June 3 of this year, when Trump made his announcement on social media that “Brad Little has my complete and total endorsement for re-election” (capital letters removed from the original).
Since then, the prospect of a Labrador run for governor has been living in a cone of silence, and nothing about his recent statements or actions seem to indicate any plans for such a race.
Which leads to the third reason the whole subject merits some consideration: Does the Trump endorsement of Little heal some of the intra-Republican conflicts in Idaho - or just rearrange them?
From one angle, a Labrador governor candidacy effectively in opposition to Trump seemingly would have nowhere to go. Labrador’s term as AG has been highly MAGA-friendly, and he would have a hard time building support from other directions. He can still, of course, run for re-election as attorney general (with good odds of winning), without crossing Trump, and the smart money seems to be that’s what he’ll do.
That would remove from Little a major primary season dark cloud, maybe the only one.
From another angle … Trump’s approval numbers have been dropping rapidly nationally, and while he doubtless still scores well in Idaho, he may not even there have quite the popularity he had a year ago. The close Little-Trump relationship might have an effect on some of Little’s past constituency.
Few people in the last generation or more would have won a bet against Idaho’s Republican core proceeding on through the next election the way it had been. But people like Pickens may be watching closely to see if the environment is rattling a little more in the coming year than it usually has.









