President George W. Bush famously branded Iraq, Iran and North Korea as the “Axis of Evil” during his 2002 inaugural address. He claimed the three rogue nations were developing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that would be used to carry out terrorist attacks against the United States and its allies. Bush vowed to use our military to stop that from happening.
When Bush followed through with his ill-advised war against Iraq, which did not actually have any WMD, it sent a resounding shockwave through the other two regimes. Both obviously concluded that a working atomic weapon was essential to their survival. As one North Korean official put it: “We are a part of the axis of evil….If we disarm ourselves because of U.S. pressure, then we will…be beaten to death.”
The North Koreans, already developing a nuclear deterrent with the help of Russian scientists, moved aggressively ahead with their program after the fall of Iraq’s dictator. They soon had a variety of nuclear warheads and the means to deliver them. Donald Trump told the United Nations in November 2017 that he would “totally destroy” North Korea if it did not halt its nuclear program. Yet, he failed to carry through with that and other threats. Instead, he began a love affair with its vicious dictator, Kim Jong Un.
The Iranian regime was watching and learning. It had entered into a comprehensive nuclear agreement with the Obama Administration in July 2015 that effectively blocked its path to a nuclear weapon. However, Trump abrogated the agreement in his first term, even though the Iranians were certified by inspectors to be in compliance with its requirements. The Iranians obviously concluded that the only way to preserve their cruel regime was to resume their quest for a nuclear weapon.
That brings us to the present day. Trump began his war against Iran on February 28, claiming it was in the final stages of developing a nuclear device. He said that the device could be used against Israel or other US allies. Let’s just stop right there. US intelligence did not and does not support those claims. Even if Iran could have enriched sufficient fissile material to weapons grade, it would have taken many months to actually weaponize it. Even then, Iran’s desire to obtain such a weapon was totally for defensive purposes–to ward off an attack by the United States.
It would be insane for Iran to attack another country with a nuclear weapon, if it actually possessed one. It would be one and done. The regime would be incinerated in response and that would be that. The whole point of seeking to have a bomb is to ensure the preservation of the country’s rulers. It might be different for a stateless terrorist organization, but a country with an established government is not likely to choose suicide.
The war has opened the eyes of Iran’s rulers to a weapon of self preservation more powerful than a nuclear device. It has always been a theoretical possibility that being able to choke off about 20% of the world’s petroleum supply would cause world wide agony. Trump has managed to demonstrate to Iran’s leaders the tremendous pain they can inflict on the US and other nations by simply closing off the Strait of Hormuz. There is practically nothing Trump can do, short of sending in legions of ground troops to secure a wide swath along Iran’s shoreline, to open the way for passage of oil tankers.
Iran is a ruthless regime that cares little about the welfare of its citizens. It can hold out much longer than the Trump regime. It is obvious that Trump is caught in a dilemma of his own rash making. If he does not come out with some sort of deal better than before his shots were fired, he will suffer a great loss of face. The Iranians know they have him over the barrel. The same realization has dawned upon Trump’s supporters.
With every passing day, the high cost of petroleum products creates economic havoc around the world, as well as political pain for Trump’s compliant GOP Congress. Iran now has a sixty-day ceasefire that will not likely end with a deal Trump can live with politically. The Iranians can merely feint constructive negotiations and extend the talks further down the road. Trump dares not resume his bombing campaign because its results will not be any more positive than before and the economic pain suffered in the US, along with rising inflation, will only get worse. The Iranians are fully aware that they are in control. The Iranian regime no longer needs a nuclear deterrent. Trump has shown it a much more effective means of ensuring its survival.