Amid the uproar over federal and Oregon state relations, an Oregon political deadline came and went Oct. 27 with little attention, but some implications for the political year ahead.
That was the last day for William Minnix of La Pine and other advocates under the banner of Oregon for the People to deliver at least 292,933 valid petition signatures supporting the recall of Gov. Tina Kotek., to qualify for a spot on the ballot. They hadn’t delivered any signatures to the Oregon Secretary of State’s Office by that date.
The advocates seem not to have given up entirely. Minnix had asked federal district court for a temporary restraining order to effectively push back the deadline (alleging state-generated errors in some of the forms related to the petitions), but shortly before the clock ran out the court turned him down. A filing with the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals still is pending, but it appears not to meet the standards for granting an order.
The recall attempt had been started in late July (90 days is the legal collection period), and to be sure, collecting 100,000 signatures per month was always going to be difficult. It probably could have been done, though, if the group had enough of two things: A highly energized, large, richly-financed and well-oiled organization, together with a broad statewide base of outrage large enough to catch like a wildfire.
Neither seems to have materialized.
The recall backers offered as argument that the governor “has violated her Oath of Office. She has failed in her leadership responsibilities by supporting policies that prioritize the support of illegal immigrants, over law-abiding Oregonians, including veteran, low-income families, elders and victims of crime. In addition, she has failed to abide by Presidential Executive Orders and mandates, eliminating federal funding. In doing so she continues to unfairly attempt to over tax Oregonians to make up for lost federal funding.”
Few specific complaints were offered. The Oregon for the People statement was an essentially partisan argument.
Much of the recall drive argument may reappear in the year to come as state Sen. Christine Drazan, who lost to Kotek in 2022 by 3.5% of the vote, pursues a rematch. Even at this early vantage point, the head to head looks likely, as the paths to party nomination for both Kotek and Drazan seem clear.
In putting the recall failure in the context of the gubernatorial race, a good deal of caution is warranted because they aren’t the same thing.
Recall petition shortfalls are an old story in many places and not least in Oregon, notably for major offices.
Local government recalls have a relatively successful track record. Two local recall attempts — against Prairie City Mayor Ed Clark and Unity Community Hall and Recreation District Board member Daniel Davis — have succeeded at the polls this year in Oregon. Four other successful efforts (one by virtue of leading to a resignation) were held in 2024.
But although many would-be recallers have pressed for the ouster of Oregon governors over many years — Kotek’s predecessor, Kate Brown, was the target of at least five failed recall petitions, and she was not the first — none have come close to success.
Although the option of recall has been available since 1908, no Oregon governor ever has been recalled
Nor do they fare well nationally, though many recalls have been tried. The website Ballotpedia has counted 123 recall attempts against governors since 2003. The only recent instance of a governor recalled by the voters, and one of only two ever, was Gray Davis of California in 2003.
Only two other recall tries against governors got to the voters, and in those — Democrat Gavin Newsom of California and Republican Scott Walker of Wisconsin — the incumbents not only prevailed but seemed to emerge from those recall battles stronger than before.
At the local level, recall elections once qualified for the ballot trend to succeed more often than not. Statewide, they more often fail, partly because the issues are more remote and abstract, and many voters disapprove of making changes in elected officials outside of regular elections.
Which leads to what effect if any this latest Kotek recall attempt may have over the next year, as the Kotek-Drazan rematch, which seems likely, takes shape.
Drazan, recently returned to the statewide campaign trail, will have her labors clearly marked ahead. Voters in Oregon do not lightly or often defeat incumbent governors: The last time it happened was in 1978, when Democrat Robert Straub lost to Republican Vic Atiyeh, the last Republican to have served as governor of Oregon. The failure of the recall effort, and the lack of any evident wide support for it, suggests that the case for defeating Kotek is not a readily available popular fuel needing only a match to set it ablaze.
It would take a lot more work than that, especially in a year when Republicans are likely to be tied tightly to one of the least popular presidents, in Oregon at least, of recent generations. The petition drive isn’t evidence that it can’t be done, but it does suggest the difficulty.
This column first appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.
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