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Posts published in August 2025

Oregon and its liquor stores

Along a remote and deep-sunk crook of the Deschutes River, in the small town of Maupin, you can find a state liquor store. But to find it you’ll need to make sure your vision encompasses legal theory.

The Maupin Market does indeed sell liquor, along with related products, a few steps away from groceries and other goods. Walking from the general goods side of the store to the liquor store side is just a matter of walking through a large doorway; you have to read the posted sign to tell when you’ve crossed over. It is a legal liquor store, legally separate, but it has the feel of being part of a normal retail operation.

Why Maupin’s example isn’t more the rule than the exception in Oregon could be a political question this year, as it last was in 2022.

Most Oregon liquor stores are stand-alone operations, separate from other retail operations and under strict state control.

The Oregon Liquor and Cannabis Commission describes the difference between larger and smaller operations: “There are two types of liquor stores to serve the public: exclusive and non-exclusive. Exclusive stores are generally located in metropolitan areas and are high volume businesses whose primary function is selling liquor. Exclusive stores may also sell authorized related items such as glassware, mixers and items used in preparing a drink. Non-exclusive stores are operated in conjunction with another business such as hardware, drug or grocery stores. Non-exclusive stores usually serve smaller communities and unique settings.”

It also says, “The State owns the distilled spirits in each store. The OLCC appoints liquor store operators who are responsible for the stores’ daily operations.  The liquor store operator and personnel are part of a small business operation and are not state employees.  Which seems like a strange mix of public agency and private business.

The Oregon approach is not unique. About a third of the country, most often in southern states, does something similar.

But most western states, including California, Washington and Nevada allow liquor sales in private retailers like grocery stores. Washington state made the change, after a successful initiative campaign, in 2011. Oregon’s system is more like those in Idaho and Montana. Many Oregonians, especially on the west side, might puzzle over that.

The possibility of changing this approach to broader retail sales has come up this year because two Portlanders, David John Allison and Kyle LoCascio, have filed an initiative proposal intended for the November 2026 ballot. It has gotten as far as an approved ballot title, issued by the attorney general’s office on August 8. The measure would allow liquor sales in stores which could obtain a license to do so. It is initiative proposal 43.

It probably won’t make the ballot, at least based on campaign activity so far, of which there hasn’t been much. Little or no spending on the measure has been reported by its backers, who appear to have no organized campaign or even a website. Strong organization would be needed, as it would be for any ballot measure, to gather the 117,173 petition signatures needed for a spot on the ballot.

The language on the petition is not even original: It comes from a 2022  initiative effort by the Northwest Grocery Association, whose members would like to be able to sell liquor. A spokesman said at the time “Oregonians firmly believe that we should be able to buy liquor along with beer and wine at their local grocery stores as our neighbors in Washington and California are able to do.”

The association said legal battles and delays were among the reasons the petition didn’t reach the ballot in 2022. But it didn’t try again in 2024, and its spokesmen have said it has nothing at all to do – not even giving permission to use the same initiative language as in 2022 – with the Allison and LoCascio effort this year.

Four years ago, whatever the background, the group was unable to collect the needed petition signatures, and efforts before that also fell short.

So why has active support for the idea been so much less in Oregon than in its neighboring states – excepting the one least like it politically, Idaho?

The existing stores and their operators do make up a political constituency of their own, and they may have been making their own case over time. Possibly, not so many Oregonians are displeased with the current system and simply aren’t excited about changing it.

Or maybe Oregon really isn’t so different from California or Washington. Maybe a properly organized and well-scheduled effort could succeed if it is tried again.

But that will take work, effort and money. As matters sit, that may not be until 2028. At the earliest.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

(image/Sheila Sund)

Fascism and autocracy

Breaking news late on Friday.

A federal appeals court panel by a 7-4 vote has ruled that many of Donald Trump’s tariffs were illegally imposed. The Supreme Court will almost certainly review the decision.

And Trump served notice he’s going to cancel nearly $5 billion in congressionally approved foreign aid funding. To say the least it is a legally questionable action.

Oh, a Trump cancelled Kamala Harris’ Secret Service protection because, well, I guess because he can.

And the White House fired a bunch of EPA staff Friday who had the temerity to sign a letter two months ago questioning the agency’s leadership.

Meanwhile, Happy Labor Day. The Chaos Presidency rolls into September.

In a piece I wrote for the Lewiston (Idaho) Tribune this week, I offered a sad despondent frightened pessimistic view of where we are with this administration.

Read on if you can take it.

With the exception of a similar comment Richard Nixon made after he was forced to resign the presidency – if the president does it, Nixon said, it’s not illegal – no American president, at least out loud and in public, has said anything approaching what Donald Trump said this week.

“I have the right to do anything I want to do,” Trump said. “I'm the president of the United States.”

What a totally remarkable, utterly frightening and profoundly unAmerican thing for the president of the United States to say.

Yet in another sense what Trump said is true because our now badly diminished 250-year-old system of checks and balances, designed from the beginning to constrain and even remove an imperial president, are failing by the hour.

As the historian Garrett Graff wrote recently:

“The president’s military occupation of the capital has escalated in recent days into something not seen since British troops marched the streets of colonial Boston – even though precisely nothing has happened to warrant it, the Pentagon has now armed the National Guard patrolling DC and armored vehicles, designed for the worst of combat, are patrolling the capital.”

But illegally using the military for police work, with I might add the enthusiastic support or several red state governors, actions that will almost certainly expand to other major cities, is hardly the least of our new king’s ongoing power grabs.

Check the boxes.

Consolidate control over the U.S. military.

Check.

Trump has now fired most of the top leadership at the Pentagon, always without explanation, and installed an eminently unqualified Fox News host as secretary of defense. The latest firing was of a respected three-star Air Force general – the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency – who contradicted Trump’s statements about “completely destroying” Iran’s nuclear weapons development program.

Attempt to destroy the historic independence of the Federal Reserve.

Check.

Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, the first Black woman to serve on the Fed board, vows to fight for her job after Trump “fired” her. Her job allegedly comes with Senate confirmation, a 14-year term and a mandate for independence from political pressure. Speculation holds that Trump will next target the regional Fed presidents. What could possibly go wrong?

Demand government ownership, which is to say Trump ownership, of big pieces of corporate America.

Check.

Intel’s CEO was attacked by Trump, then went to the White House and capitulated, agreeing to a 10% ownership stake in his company by the federal government. Trump demanded 15% of the sales of chip maker Nvidia and presto he seems to have gotten it. Maybe Micron is next, or Apple or Cracker Barrel. ¹

Harass critics of his policies, even ones that served in his previous administration.

Check.

John Bolton, the former Trump National Security Advisor’s home was raided, clearly at Trump’s instigation. Trump made threats to former confidante Chris Christie, and unsubstantiated charges against a U.S. senator and the attorney general of New York. All of it amplified by the Justice Department and the FBI.

Punish government whistleblowers.

Check.

More than 100 employees of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), worried that the administration has gutted the agency designed to help when natural disaster strikes, wrote an open letter to Congress voicing their concerns. Then more than 30 of those employees were suspended with no explanation, but after saying they hoped their warnings would “come in time to prevent not only another national catastrophe like Hurricane Katrina, but the effective dissolution of FEMA itself and the abandonment of the American people such an event would represent.”

Shake down major universities for alleged offenses that lack both good faith and the thinnest pretense of fact.

Check.

Harvard is fighting to maintain its research dollars under relentless pressure from Trump. Do you think the University of Idaho or Washington State or Brigham Young University are safe from such intimidation? If so, you’re smoking something – again.

Rig the midterms by demanding that Texas, Indiana and other red states redistrict congressional seats in order to gerrymander more Republicans into Congress.

Check.

Trump has reversed election security efforts taken during his first term and appointed a conspiracy theorist who has repeatedly misrepresented the 2020 election to be in charge of election “security” at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Trump also demanded that state officials turn over detailed voter information to him. “The hiring of an election conspiracy theorist with no election knowledge or expertise is the culmination of this reversal,” said David Becker who heads a non-profit working to improve public confidence in elections. “DHS now appears poised to become a primary amplifier of false election conspiracies pushed by our enemies.” For good measure, Trump attacks mail in voting.

Destroy the Centers for Disease Control by firing the top scientist.

Check.

Susan Monarez, a long-time government scientist, was sacked by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. who really didn’t have the authority to do so, but never mind. Donald Trump decided he would personally neuter the CDC. In turn a group of senior leaders quit. Pray we don’t face another pandemic.

Blatant, massive, out in the open corruption that would make Nero blush.

Check.

Reporter David D. Kirkpatrick examined the public record and calculated, conservatively, that Trump has made $3.4 billion in real estate deals, licensing deals, crypto scams, a luxury Qatari jet and much more while president. “When it comes to using his public office to amass personal profits,” says Fred Wertheimer of Common Cause, “Trump is a unicorn – no one else even comes close.”

I have the right to do anything I want to do …

All of this, every bit of this and more, is beyond what we have ever seen in American democracy, which leads to the inescapable conclusion that we have stumbled our way across a line I never thought Americans would tolerate. To again quote historian Garrett Graff, the United States “has tipped over the edge into authoritarianism and fascism.”

If you are among the 40% or so of Americans – if you believe the polls – who support Donald Trump’s approach to the presidency my recounting of his actions likely brings a smile. You like the idea of a strongman president defying the law, tradition and any constraint on his actions.

As long as Trump is going after his enemies – and yours – it’s all good, right?

“I have the right to do anything I want to do,” the man says. “I'm the president of the United States.”

But think for a moment: where does it stop? Can it be stopped now?

Political scientist Norm Ornstein has been warning of this moment for some time. And Norm asked the obvious question this week: “Who will step up and restore any sense of checks and balances?”

Surely not a Republican Congress.

Don’t delude yourself that the Supreme Court will restore some sense of balance and constrain on a runaway president. A majority of the Court made him nearly entirely immune for his “official” actions and have repeatedly allowed him to do things that other presidents didn’t dream of trying.

Can we really count on a fair and free election next year or in 2028? A plot is afoot in plain sight to make sure Trumpism never loses.

And what does it mean for you, even my Trump supporting American friends who like the strongman idea, the guy who breaks instead of building?

Do you really want so much “power” in one man’s (tiny) hands? Is “democracy” by retribution really democracy?

And what if the script flips?

What if the next unconstrained, lawless president makes you or your business or your college or your city a target? Are your mortgage documents in order? How about that business loan 20 years ago? Ever late with your taxes? All they need is a pretense. Just make the charge and charge ahead. That’s where we are.

First they came for a Fed governor, or a senator I don’t particularly like but it didn’t affect me …

Don’t think it’s possible that you or someone you care about might be a target?

Don’t kid yourself.

Today is very different than any day before. And tomorrow will be worse.

 

Multiplication

This last week Idaho bumped up to three measles cases. The latest in Bonner County has arrived alongside others in Kootenai and Bonneville counties; the first two thought to be part of a local spread and the latter “imported.”

Three is hardly an epidemic, of course - so far. But you can expect there will be more. And that will have implications for health and, inevitably these days, politics.

These Idaho cases are a small part of the first major measles outbreak nationally in decades. There may be reasons more social and political than medical that it is resurfacing now.

That’s not just speculation. The Johns Hopkins health tracker (one not hobbled by federal budget cuts, at least not yet) shows that with one outlier exception in 2019, total measles cases in the United States never reached 400 cases for any full year in this century up to 2025, but 1,388 have been reported just so far this year. The heaviest spread has been reported in Texas, but many other states have been reporting significant numbers of them, including Montana, California, Kansas and New Mexico.

Johns Hopkins concluded, “To date in 2025 measles outbreaks have been reported in multiple states, raising concerns about continued spread, increases in hospitalizations and deaths, and loss of measles elimination status, highlighting the importance of measles vaccination and rapid detection and reporting of suspected and confirmed measles cases.”

So far as health officials have been able to determine, the three Idaho cases are unrelated - which could be a bigger problem than if they were connected.

Dr. Christine Hahn, state epidemiologist, said that “Without any link between these two confirmed cases in north Idaho or travel outside of their communities, it’s reasonable to suspect that there is more measles circulating. As we’ve seen with other states around the nation, cases can begin to multiply quickly.”

Measles, which is developed from a virus which is highly contagious, has a wide range of impacts, some of them more annoying than hazardous, but ranging to life-threatening. Among young children who contract it, an estimated 21% will need a stay at a hospital.

We haven’t heard a lot about measles for a long time, because for quite awhile it seemed part of history. Measles vaccine was licensed in 1963, and vaccination rates in the United States and many other countries were overwhelming - and measles was nearly stamped out. Those vaccination rates were high enough to create herd immunity.

Idaho, however, is among the states that has thrown out a welcome mat to the measles virus, among other bad bugs.

That follows not so much a single action or piece of legislation, as the overall political and cultural atmosphere. Item: Idaho is first in the country for percentage of “kindergartners with medical or nonmedical exemptions from one or more vaccination.” Item: A new state law limits vaccination mandates in many places (which would have been more if the legislature hadn’t watered it down a little late in the process). Item: The still-active rebellion against vaccinating people against Covid-19. And much more; if you live in Idaho you can compile your own list.

And then there’s the in-migration of people from states where efforts to combat Covid-19 were stronger; as one immigrant from California put it (reflecting the view of many), “I came here in search of medical freedom.”

Here’s another way to put it: A growing number of people in Idaho want little to do with steps to protect themselves and the people around them from contagious and sometimes deadly diseases, and see public safety as something to be disregarded - or resisted.

Measles has a good chance of being the next battleground in this area. Watch for it coming to a community near you.

(image)

 

Appeasement

Donald Trump has given Vladimir Putin’s war machine a green light to continue its genocidal war against the Ukrainian people. Just days before the Alaska summit with Putin, Trump gave Ukraine and America’s other European allies assurances that he was going to get tough with Putin. He was going to demand an immediate ceasefire to stop Russia’s killing. Instead, Trump wilted and gave Putin everything he wanted. The vicious Russian war machine will continue its merciless killing of Ukrainian men, women and children until Ukraine hands over large chunks of its country to Putin’s cutthroats.

Max Boot, a well-respected, Russian-born military commentator called the meeting a “U.S. defeat.” Even Fox News reported that Trump got “steamrolled” by Putin despite having “home advantage.” All of Trump’s tough talk over the last several weeks, including his promise of ”very, very powerful and very bad” sanctions, disappeared as he slathered praise all over Putin. Trump gave in to Putin, basically adopting the long-standing Kremlin line–no peace until Ukraine capitulates. It was a pitiful performance.

Two factors likely motivated Trump’s about face on Ukraine. The first was readily apparent at the joint appearance of the two leaders as the Alaska meeting ended. Trump dwelt on what he called “the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax” in his brief remarks. He is obviously still steamed that the Ukrainian President refused his demand to announce an investigation into the Bidens during the 2019 presidential campaign. That has been a continuing source of anger against President Zelensky and has heavily influenced Trump’s uncaring attitude toward Ukraine’s fate.

The other factor is Trump’s obsessive quest to get the Nobel Peace Prize. He has repeatedly and publicly groused about failing to get that prestigious award, which he believes he richly deserves. He pathetically debased himself by begging Norwegian  Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg for the Peace Prize. He apparently believes that brokering an end to Putin’s vicious, unprovoked war against Ukraine, no matter how bad for the Ukrainians, would entitle him to the award. I have a high regard for the Norwegians but can’t understand why Trump would want an award from a country that his base claims to be “woke" simply because it has compassion for all of its people.

Appeasement of a ruthless aggressor is a fool’s errand. It merely confirms to the aggressor that he has the upper hand. It is a clear invitation to further aggression. If Trump were to study history, he might discover that British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain returned from a 1938 meeting with Adolph Hitler, proclaiming that he had achieved “peace for our time” by appeasing the monster. Just a year later, Hitler launched World War II. Putin will redouble his efforts to subjugate the Ukrainians as he pretends to negotiate a peace settlement.

I was part of another catastrophic debacle where an authoritarian government, North Vietnam, agreed to cease hostilities against a U.S. ally, South Vietnam, and later conquered our ally’s country, killing and imprisoning millions. In 1973, we forced the South Vietnamese to sign the Paris Peace Accords, using President Nixon’s false promise of security guarantees. We simply failed to honor those guarantees when the North launched a massive attack in 1975. It still makes me angry and sick at heart to think of my 58,220 comrades who died in vain in the Vietnam War, as well as my many Vietnamese friends who perished or were imprisoned because of those false guarantees. Trump is now talking of security guarantees for Ukraine as an inducement for that ally to reach a settlement with Putin. Any such guaranties would be equally worthless.

It is high time for Senator Jim Risch and the rest of Idaho’s Congressional delegation to man up, to get the courage needed to strongly support our Ukrainian allies. Risch has told us that the future of NATO, the safety of our European allies and the national security of the United States depends on stopping Putin’s takeover of Ukraine. Risch talks a good game, but he and his colleagues need to use their power of the purse to send massive military aid to Ukraine. Two US Senators recently introduced legislation to send $54.6 billion in aid to Ukraine and 85 Senators are sponsoring a bill to impose “sledgehammer” sanctions against Putin to stop his aggression. Both measures, and much more of the same, are urgently needed to prevent another national security disaster. Congress needs to assert itself and force Trump’s hand.

We used to have a Republican President who was truly tough, who understood what it meant to be an American, who would stand up against the rich and powerful, who knew that peace at any price is sheer folly. That President, Teddy Roosevelt, said: “Americanism means the virtues of courage, honor, justice, truth, sincerity, and hardihood–the virtues that made America. The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living and the get-rich-quick theory of life.” Amen!!!

 

A pivot point for the governor’s race

Aug. 29 marks the opening — and maybe closing as well — of this year’s special legislative session.

The stakes are higher than usual, not only because of the state budget issues involved but because that also may be the day the 2026 race for Oregon governor effectively kicks off.

All the raw materials for the campaign seem to be in place.

Those do not, for the most part, include the actual candidates. The field for governor as of now is far from set. Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek has not formally declared her reelection campaign — though considering the many fundraising emails her organization has been sending for many months, Kotek opting out would be a true shocker. There are several little-known candidates in the field, but so far none with major organization, funding or broad familiarity have formally announced.

This environment could change greatly before long.

One indicator was the July 28 launch of a recall effort against Kotek, by William Minnix of La Pine. To reach ballot status, he would have to collect 292,933 signatures by Oct. 27 — an immense effort, with no apparent mass organization behind it, highly unlikely to succeed. The recall campaign, even if small in actual organization, may get some attention around the state, possibly enough to affect the opening environment for candidate campaigns.

The stated reasons for recall may also get some circulation among Republicans: “Supporting policies that prioritize the support of illegal immigrants, over law-abiding Oregonians, including veteran, low-income families, elders and victims of crime. In addition, she has failed to abide by presidential executive orders and mandates, eliminating federal funding. In doing so she continues to unfairly attempt to over tax Oregonians to make up for lost federal funding.”

A second indicator of an uptick in gubernatorial politics is the special session. It will feature a rerun of one of the hottest issues of the last regular session, transportation funding. Proposals floated (and never passed) during the session were blasted statewide as becoming the biggest tax increase in Oregon history, enough at least to make a strong campaign slogan.

The non-passage of a transportation funding measure already has resulted in hundreds of announced layoffs at the Oregon Department of Transportation, but revenue plans — which mean significant increases in taxes and fees, some of which have been proposed by the governor — are sure to remain highly controversial.

Anyone thinking of challenging Kotek is surely looking at attaching that special session to her, and that could be true whether or not the legislators do what the governor wants them to do. If they rebuff her, she’d be dinged as ineffective. If she gets what she’s asking for, the fallout could be greater.

The background of a politically touchy session combined with recall efforts in the wind likely will result, not too many weeks from now, in the appearance of a major Republican contender.

In 2022, Republicans were hamstrung by an enormous field of candidates, none of them so well known as to be an obvious front-runner. That might be different this time.

That 2022 Republican nominee, Christine Drazan, turned out to be an effective candidate who came within 3.4 percentage points of beating Kotek. A former legislator and House Republican leader at the time of her last run, she has since bounced back into state politics, winning election to the Legislature last year (taking out an incumbent fellow Republican, James Hieb, in the process), and now is again House Republican leader. Any discussion of major contenders for the 2026 Republican nomination for governor has to start with her.

She has so far fended off inquiries about that, recently saying she wants to focus on the upcoming special session (which could be true from a candidate’s as well as a legislator’s perspective).

But at least one specific move toward a run has surfaced, in a report from the Oregon Journalism Project of a $55,000 polling effort paid for by Drazan (the results of which haven’t been released).

If after the special session Drazan is interested in running, the period in September or early October (before the probable failure of the recall effort in reaching ballot status), and allowing for a significant fundraising period prior to the next regular legislative session, would be optimal.

If she doesn’t want to run, patience among other Republicans is likely to evaporate soon. Anyone else would have to start from scratch and with fewer assets, and delays among Republicans in getting an early start would be a gift to Kotek. (On her part, Kotek probably will want to announce soon too, to avoid restiveness among Democrats.)

This upcoming special legislative session, then, is becoming a serious pivot in the run for governor over the year beyond it. In some ways, tension at the statehouse could run a little higher than usual.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle

The death of expertise

There was once something called the “conservative foreign policy establishment” comprised of Republicans like Henry Kissinger, the one-time secretary of state and national security advisor to Richard Nixon, and George Schultz, Ronald Reagan’s top diplomat. James Baker, a Reagan confidante, was part of the GOP establishment and served as George H.W. Bush’s secretary of state.

John McCain, the Vietnam era POW and Arizona senator, certainly enjoyed foreign policy establishment standing, as did Indiana senator Richard Lugar, general and secretary of state Colin Powell and Bob Dole, the Kansas senator and presidential candidate.

None of these guys, and I could add many more names to the list, were perfect or even often right, but they were serious people. They worked to know the world and developed policies and approaches that were, if not perfect, at least informed and again - serious.

But the “the establishment” – people with expertise, real world experience, intellectual heft and historical perspective – no longer counts in the modern MAGA GOP.

Now only loyalty to the leader translates into status and influence.

Never has the lack of actual foreign policy capability by the current president and his sycophantic gang of turd polishers been more on display than when Russia’s international war criminal landed in Anchorage last week to be greeted by a smiling, clapping Donald Trump.

Trump, or someone around him, made the decision to debase American military personnel by having them literally get on hands and knees and roll out a red carpet for the Butcher of Kiev, Vladimir Putin. It was the sorriest spectacle since Trump met Putin in Helsinki in 2018 and sided with the Russian mob boss over the U.S. intelligence community.

Trump went to Alaska without preparation, without a reasonable objective and without honor in order to fawn like a fan boy over a former KGB agent. He ended this performative foreign policy charade by reversing himself on the need for a cease fire in Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine.

Trump is back to giving away Ukrainian territory rather than confronting Putin’s desire to dominate, even eliminate Ukraine. Putin’s aim is clear: he intends to recreate the old Soviet empire and Ukraine is critical to his mission. Pretty much every serious person knows this with the exception of the president of the United States.

The sound you heard in the wake of this “summit” was John McCain rolling over in his grave.

Never has Trump, intellectually or practically, articulated what he sees as the stakes for a democratic Europe, an independent Ukraine or a retreating U.S. as he continues to fluffer and fuss over Putin, a man clearly intellectually and practically smarter than Trump.

Putin understands perfectly the president’s preoccupation, as with all narcissists, with fantasies about his success, power and brilliance. The Russians played the American president like Rostropovich once conducted the National Symphony.

For Trump, as Tom Nichols wrote in The Atlantic, “Zelensky and Ukraine are the problem, and the rest is just an ongoing tragedy that the Ukrainians can end by being ‘flexible’ and by putting their president in a room with the man conducting atrocities against them.”

A half dozen European leaders immediately rushed to Washington in the aftermath of the Alaska farce to help make sure Trump didn’t again assault Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. The Washington chapter of the summit of nothing ended with no path forward, but with the Russian’s rejecting Trump’s idea that the Putin and Zelensky get together and make a deal.

Through it all the president bloviated about his pursuit of peace while continuing to channel Kremlin talking points about the origin of Putin’s bloody war. Trump then had the gall to quote Putin on the dangers of mail in voting, as if Russia has had anything like a fair election since, what, 1917?

This is not a foreign policy; this is a deadly dangerous fantasy from a man historically ill equipped for the task at hand.

“As flaccid as a boned fish,” said that liberal squish George Will, “Donald Trump crumpled quicker than even Vladimir Putin probably anticipated. The former KGB agent currently indicted for war crimes felt no need to negotiate with the man-child.”

After World War II when (mostly) serious people governed in both political parties, Republicans who lived through the spectacle of Nazi domination of Europe, the Holocaust, the bloodiest war in human history and the dawn of the nuclear age systematically shed the head-in-the-sand isolationism that had defined the party after World War I. The Republican Party (mostly) embraced the notion of American leadership in the world.

In the post-war world the GOP “establishment,” built around real experience and serious grappling with the U.S. role in the world, eclipsed the then hard right wing of the party. The GOP turned to a legitimate war hero, Dwight Eisenhower, and largely banished the cranky kooks of the Birch Society, but the isolationist, conspiracy tinged hard right never completely went away. And now they dominate the party.

The foreign policy chops of the modern MAGA party, such as they are, reside with people like Putin and Nazi apologist Tucker Carlson, unhinged MAGA influencer Laura Loomer and Steve Wikcoff, Trump’s special envoy who came to the job without a lick of diplomatic experience.

As Foreign Policy magazine noted of the president’s “expert”, “Notoriously, Witkoff has been accused of not knowing the names of the Ukrainian provinces whose fate he is now working to decide.” ¹

Instead of a John McCain or a Bob Dole the Republican Senate features shrinking men like South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham, who clearly wakes up every day determined to slobber over the president, and Idaho’s Jim Risch, the Foreign Relations Committee chairman in name only, who takes no position without calibrating how it will play in Trump world and regularly asks “how high” when this feckless administration says “jump.”

No words from these elites as Trump, aided by his secretary of state who once called Trump a “con man,” cleans out decades of expertise at the State Department, destroys foreign aid programs and bans many foreign students from studying at American universities. The old elites knew that our nation’s “soft power” – aiding the developing world and educating young people – was often as important as another aircraft carrier.

But with our current wholesale retreat from American leadership the new GOP establishment is working overtime to make Russia and China great again.

The old GOP elite was quick to invoke the Munich analogy, the fateful and repugnant decision by Britain and France in 1938 to attempt to appease Adolf Hitler’s designs on Czechoslovakia. That appeasement only emboldened Hitler and a year later all of Europe was at war.

The Munich analogy can be overdone, but in the present case it offers a crystal clear warning.

Trump will abandon Ukraine and side with the aggressor, and in the reverse of World War II it will rest with democratic Europe, the old world, to come to the aid of a new world debased and disgraced by Trumpism and its incompetent, cultish “elites.”

This column originally appeared on Marc' substack.

 

The real housing crisis

Senator Mike Crapo last week hosted the secretary of Housing and Urban Development in Idaho and, at a round table including state and local officials, discussed a topic of big and obvious concern to many Idahoans: The high cost of housing, which also was the subject of a constituent survey Crapo conducted recently.

The survey was said to reflect (specific results were not disclosed) an evident high concern about housing affordability, and in the area of solutions HUD Secretary Scott Turner emphasized deregulation and tax incentives, evidently with the idea of building more houses.

The main round table event was behind closed doors, but it’s a fair bet that the larger drivers of high housing costs got little or no discussion.

To get an idea of what those are, you need to consider when the housing price crisis became a crisis: Not gradually over time, but rather in the course of just a few recent years.

You also have to consider that while the crisis is very bad for most people, it’s not a problem for all. If you want to buy a house priced at that median level of close to a half-million dollars or more, you either need to already own a house which you’re selling for about as much (California works for this), or you need major wealth, which could mean an income in six figures. Without one of those things, you’re probably out of luck when it comes to buying a house.That means only around a sixth of the population will qualify. And renting an apartment, as many people know, is no better.

That’s where the crisis is: Among the 75% or so of the less-wealthy people in the state (and beyond).

Classive economic supply and demand theory suggests that if you build enough houses, prices will drop as relative demand is sated. But in Idaho, as in many states - the housing cost problem is nationwide - strong amounts of home construction have failed to drive down prices, which have remained stubbornly high for the last half-decade.

Census estimates said that Idaho had 751,858 housing units in 2020, and by 2024 that rose to 832,675 - a major increase even considering Idaho’s growing population; from 2023 to 2024, in fact, Idaho’s housing stock was estimated to have grown faster than that of any other state.

There are about 740,000 households in Idaho, and in raw, overall numbers, there should be enough houses, apartments and other housing units to at least roughly balance supply and demand. .

And yet there aren’t. Zillow this year figures the average Idaho house value at $472,273 (in some high-demand places like Ada or Kootenai counties, it’s much higher), and that’s up over last year. The growth in cost has been spectacular: Zillow’s data says that as recently as 2018 that number was under $200,000.

You can easily see the truth of those numbers for yourself. Check out the house listings and see how many are available for, oh, $400,000 and up - and how many are out there suitable for the large number of people who can afford only something priced half as high.

So how can this happen in a free market, where a broad-based ability to pay should match up, at least loosely, with prices being charged? You sure couldn’t sell groceries that way.

One answer is that housing - houses mainly, but apartment complexes too - have become major investments in the past few years, especially in the last decade. Earners of average wages are competing with billionaires, hedge funds and other large-scale organizations, where residences are viewed as good places to park and invest money. And they’re willing to pay plenty, even much more than the house seems to be worth, because rising sales prices artificially boost rising prices all around - which means homeowners get more value, and investors gain as well, but houses are ever further out of reach for buyers.

Redfin News,  a home sales tracking site, said last summer that investor home buying has risen notably in recent years, about 3% annually, and “investors bought 1 of every 6 U.S. homes that sold—purchasing $43 billion worth of properties—and 1 of every 4 low-priced homes that sold.”

Ever-ratcheting home prices serve their business model just fine, but ordinary homeowners cannot easily compete in a market where they’re so heavily outpriced.

That’s a far more pertinent factor in the rise of housing prices than changes in population, housing stock or regulations relating to it - since none of those things have changed so drastically in recent years.

When Congress and an administration, any administration, begin to cope with realities such as those, we’ll know they’re actually serious about home overpricing, and not just posturing.

 

Rewind: A question, no answer

Rewind: From a Barrett Rainey column from 2014.

An old debate among journalists – and some who think they are – has begun again. Wherever some of the more serious media types are gathered in more social surroundings these days, the discussion can be heard.

Must the media present all people or issues to its audience/readers if the media knows the person/issue is wrong or false? Or words to that effect.

It's not as goofy – or as arrogant – as it sounds. It's an issue more common these days with political and philosophical divisions within media sources. It['s also more relevant because of the slide in national politics to the right.

We older media types tried to operate under a rule that, when talking strictly news events or stories, the interviewees words were the news and the media served only as messenger – not to judge or critique or interpret. Simply the conduit – unless you're talking editorials, byline columns or opinion pieces. Let the subject/facts talk. That's the news. You report the news.

As our nation has become more politically divided, so has the media. Rather than simply report, major networks have slowly integrated points of view – either by the reporter or anchor or in the way the story is presented.

By any traditional standard, Fox News is the worst offender. CNN does a bit of its own. And for those who constantly remind me that MSNBC is the liberal offset for Fox, remember this: MSNBC has never – never – referred to itself as a news organization. Fox does constantly. Even in its name.

Here's an issue that fits the problem perfectly: global warming. By nearly all scientific evidence presented by legitimate research organizations, global warming is a fact. You can argue cause. You can argue effect. You can argue how much. But the basic fact is, global warming exists and its effects are too overwhelming for thinking minds to ignore.

Here's another fact. The two committees in Congress charged with dealing with this subject – one in the House and one in the Senate – are chaired by two men who're vocal, absolute deniers of the evidence. All of it. And it's these two who have the absolute power to refuse to let either committee – and thus the full Congress – do anything in our national interest to deal with our warming world.

So, go back to the question stated before: Must the media present people or issues to its audience/readers if the media knows the person/issue is wrong or false? If Sen. Inhofe (R-OK) continues leading the deniers from his powerful pulpit, is the media acting properly by giving his distinctly minority voice a platform to proclaim his distinctly minority and distinctly untrue view? When poll after poll shows some 80% of us believe global warming not only exists but is a serious problem, is the media doing a service – or a disservice – by giving Sen. Inhofe a platform when he's factually wrong? After all, it's not the media's job to go find someone to speak for the majority side of the global warming issue every time a minority denier pops off just to keep things balanced. Should the media give him a platform?

Another example you see far too often. Say the vote on a particular bill in the U.S. Senate was 97-3. The media will always – always – identify the three but not the 97. Why? Why identify three loser votes when the overwhelming 97 ayes won? It's not practical – in time or space – to name all 97 though they were, after all, the victors. Why name the three losers?

Until Ronald Reagan, broadcast media operated under the Fairness Doctrine which required – by law – fairness/access in reporting both sides. He threw that out the window so now Faux Neus – among others – can operate with impunity by selecting only the view it wants to. Other outlets do some of the same at times, but Faux is the habitual offender. Its very foundation is one of lopsided coverage and twisted fact. Ain't it, Rupert?

Survey after survey has shown Faux Neus viewers are less informed, more poorly informed and more inaccurately informed. The only variance is by how much. There is ample empirical evidence Faux viewers score much lower when asked to compare what they've seen on Faux versus what the facts really are. But Faux Neus keeps cranking out the propaganda.

So, the question becomes what is the media's responsibility when it knows the newsmaker's position – or the media itself – disregards fact – ignores valid scientific evidence – and is contrary to overwhelming proof?

But suppose, on another issue, that minority expression is eventually proven the right one? Suppose the newsmaker in 2001 opposed our intervention in Iraq when that was a very minority view. At that time the minority was called wrong by the majority before the minority view of non-intervention became the majority opinion. What if the media ignored them then?

There's no easy answer to this conundrum. Maybe no answer at all. We used to know when fact was fact. We did our best to operate within that parameter. But divisions of media to appeal only to those holding similar views has resulted in distorted facts. Slanted facts. Too often, phony facts. If you don't believe that, spend a week reading or watching a source you don't normally see or agree with. You'll be surprised.

So, what's your answer? What's the obligation? What's the media responsibility? The honest answers ain't all that easy to come by.

 

Idaho’s MAGA delegation

After having provided unwavering support to programs that will prove harmful to our state and nation, Idaho’s top elected officials have found themselves in full-spin mode. Our Congressional delegation, although largely avoiding direct contact with voters in open town halls, have been using the Congressional recess to spin the effect of MAGA programs they supported.

Congressman Mike Simpson has been the most disappointing. As Idaho Attorney General, I supported Mike’s run for the Idaho Legislature in 1984. He served honorably and intelligently for 14 years and has served in the US House since 1989. Mike has done some good work over the years, at least until the Trump regime took over America’s government. Mike has become a loyal Trump sycophant in the House.

In an August 5 talk to the Idaho Falls Chamber of Commerce, Simpson lauded his support for the recently-passed Big Beautiful Billionaire Bill (BBBB). The bill extends forever the large tax cuts enacted in 2017, which were heavily skewed to the rich. Simpson blew off the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) calculation that the BBBB will add $3.5 trillion to America’s national debt, bringing our indebtedness to around 40 trillion dollars. Simpson claimed the “CBO is never right.” It is rather strange that Simpson placed reliance on the CBO cost estimate of the Fiscal Responsibility Act in 2023. The well-regarded Bipartisan Policy Center has verified the CBO determination.

Simpson continually wails about the ever-increasing national debt. His website says:

“The impact of an ever increasing national debt, if allowed to grow unchecked, can be disastrous for the economy. I am especially concerned that future generations of Americans will probably be the ones expected to pay down this debt.” His support for BBBB’s billionaire tax relief apparently takes priority over those future generations. Simpson bemoaned that “the biggest payment we make today is interest on the national debt, over a trillion dollars.” The BBBB will substantially increase that payment.

Simpson also wants to finance tax relief for the wealthy by cutting “wasteful Medicaid spending for illegal migrants and people who can work but refuse to.” He doesn’t seem to know that undocumented migrants cannot receive Medicaid assistance, except in limited emergency situations. And most adult Medicaid recipients are already working. According to reliable KFF research, “nearly two-thirds of adults ages 19-64 covered by Medicaid were working and nearly three in ten were not working because of caregiving responsibilities, illness or disability, or due to school attendance.”

Congressman Russ Fulcher, the most subservient member of Idaho’s MAGA delegation, enthusiastically supported the BBBB, even though his website says that America’s “escalating debt trajectory is unsustainable and poses significant risks to future generations.” Fulcher is the only member of the delegation who declined to oppose the sale of public lands in Idaho.

Senators Jim Risch and Mike Crapo almost got themselves crosswise with the great majority of Idahoans by supporting a MAGA effort to sell public lands as part of the BBBB deliberations. When they saw that both of Montana’s Republican Senators were against land sales and that most Idahoans hate the idea, they did a quick about face.

They both voted for the massive tax relief for the rich and for substantial cuts to medical care and nutrition assistance for struggling Idahoans. Senator Crapo was the person who gave Simpson and other MAGA members of Congress the preposterous idea that the BBBB would not increase the national debt. Crapo used smoke-and-mirrors economics to reach that result. Both Risch and Crapo vociferously oppose spending that increases the national debt, but that must only apply when others do it.

The other MAGA problem facing Idaho and the rest of the nation is the chaotic tariff dance being conducted by Donald Trump. Congress has the Constitutional authority for setting the country’s tariff policy, as well as controlling the nation’s purse strings. The MAGA Congress has completely abdicated its power and obligation on both counts. Trump unlawfully withholds spending on programs authorized by Congress and arbitrarily imposes tariffs that will hit American consumers in their pocketbooks. All of this goes on without a peep from our petrified MAGA delegation.

An Idaho businesswoman met with Senator Crapo to outline the damage that Trump tariffs were wreaking on her business. He told her there was little he could do to help; his hands were tied because the president was going it alone. Crapo may have forgotten that he was Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, which has jurisdiction over tax and trade policy. He certainly has the power to stop her pain.

Crapo and the rest of Idaho’s Congressional delegation lack the courage to stand up for their state and country. Rather than fulfill their sacred oath to stand up for constitutional government, they spend their time spinning the destructive MAGA program. Perhaps it’s time for voters to put them out to pasture.