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Posts published in May 2025

Art of the Grift

Article I, Section 9, Clause 8 of the U.S. Constitution - the emoluments clause:

No Title of Nobility shall be granted by the United States: And no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust under them, shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State.

What the CIA World Factbook says about Qatar, the country reportedly ready to gift President Donald Trump a $400 million luxuriously tricked out Boeing 747:

absolute monarchy

That’s pithy.

Those pesky Founding Fathers did not leave much wiggle room in the Constitution for bribes. The emoluments clause is just about as clear as it gets.

any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State.

Any kind whatever …

When a person - even the president, or especially the president - can so obviously violate the law and the plain language of the Constitution it can only mean one thing: the United States has ceased to be a nation of laws, indeed ceased to be a functioning republic.

Full stop.

The brain splitting corruption involved in Donald Trump saying he will accept the gift (or maybe grift) of a fancy aircraft that (reportedly) will then be handed over to his eventual presidential library is so far out the Overton window of political normalcy to be, well, wildly unprecedented doesn’t really cover it. ¹

“It’s not a gift to me, it’s a gift to the Department of Defense,” Trump said, telling a reporter they should be “embarrassed” for asking what his response is to people who view the jet as a personal gift to him.

Right.

Just consider the chain of corruption that leads to that kind of comment:

Trump started complaining in his first term about what he considered the sorry state of Air Force One, and has regularly thrown verbal spit balls at Boeing for being years behind in producing two new presidential aircraft.

Trump inspects the plane

“The motorcade of U.S. President Donald Trump is parked next to a 12-year old Qatari-owned Boeing 747-8 that Trump was touring in West Palm Beach, Florida, February 15, 2025.”

Qatar invests in Kushner private equity firm

“Wealth funds in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have invested hundreds of millions of dollars with Jared Kushner’s [Trump’s son-in-law] private equity firm, according to people with knowledge of the transactions, joining Saudi Arabia in backing the venture launched by former President Donald J. Trump’s son-in-law as he left the White House.” ³

Trump announces first foreign trip of second term to Middle East

“President Donald Trump will travel to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates next month, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday. ?

Trump family business cuts Qatar deals

“The Trump family company struck a deal Wednesday to build a luxury golf resort in Qatar in a sign it has no plans to hold back from foreign dealmaking during a second Trump administration, despite the danger of a president shaping U.S. public policy for personal financial gain.?

ABC breaks story of Qatar airplane gift

“In what may be the most valuable gift ever extended to the United States from a foreign government, the Trump administration is preparing to accept a super luxury Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet from the royal family of Qatar -- a gift that is to be available for use by President Donald Trump as the new Air Force One until shortly before he leaves office, at which time ownership of the plane will be transferred to the Trump presidential library foundation, sources familiar with the proposed arrangement told ABC News.” ?

"They're giving us a gift," Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday, adding that he would be "a stupid person" if he did not accept it. ?

I probably should add that Qatar, whose government is an absolute monarchy, has apparently been funding the Hamas terrorist organization for years, news that prompted a scathing report last year from former Israeli and US intelligence professionals.

The Times of Israel said the funding from Qatar directly led to the gruesome October 7 terror attack in Israel.

A confidential report by a team of veteran US and Israeli intelligence professionals working on behalf of lawyers for the families of October 7 victims contends that Qatar should not be allowed to continue to serve as a key mediator in the Gaza conflict, notably in negotiations for the release of hostages.

Compiled on the basis of research in English, Arabic, and French in the Middle East, Europe and the US, as well as public sourcing, the report concludes that Qatar is a fundamentally disingenuous actor, falsely presenting itself as an honest broker, moderating influence in the region, and “friend of the West.”

Oh, another wrinkle. The attorney general of the United States, Pam Bondi, before she assumed the job of Justice Department facilitator for White House and general government corruption, was - wait, wait - a $115,000 a month lobbyist for … Qatar.

If this were an episode of Veep we’d demand that the writer’s room work harder.

Sources told ABC that Bondi and Trump’s top White House lawyer, David Warrington, have already smoothed the legal details [on the 747 gift]. They concluded that the gift is “legally permissible” because it is being handed to the United States Air Force and will then be transferred to Trump’s presidential library foundation. They also determined it does not constitute a bribe because the gift does not hinge on an official act.

Right.

Hard not to imagine what the absolute monarchy is getting out of this “legally permissible” very public and transparent deal. Let your imagination run wild. ?

So, back in the almost Before Times Donald Trump did a deal with the federal government to lease a hotel in Washington, DC. You might remember.

The hotel, where Trump ended up as both the lessee and the person supervising the lease, became a magnet for foreign visitors and MAGA political types who stayed in the tacky suites, drank in the tacky bar and ate in the tacky restaurant. By one account foreign guests at the Trump hotel alone spent $3.7 million there, the functional equivalent of putting cash in the pocket of the American president.

The DC hotel should have been a much bigger story, in part, as NBC reported in 2021, because the federal agency that should have been raising red flags instead struck it’s colors.

The House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure's report, obtained exclusively by NBC News, found that the General Services Administration did not track foreign government payments to the hotel or identify the origins of more than $75 million in loans made by Trump and his family to shore up its troubled finances.

Right.

A government agency under control of the president didn’t track.

That Trump skated on the DC hotel deal, and skated on his attempt to shakedown the Ukrainian president for dirt on Joe Biden and skated again when then-Vice President Mike Pence went miles out of his way to stay at a Trump property in Ireland in 2019 and skated again on his massive crypto grifts is why we’re now talking about a Qatar airplane being gifted to Donald Trump.

Corruption reminds me of the wild blackberries that grow everywhere here on the Oregon coast. Unless you root them out and kill them off they comes back bigger and nastier year after year.

If this airplane deal goes through - and given the parties in play that seems more likely than not - the next mountain of corruption from this administration will be worse, much worse.

There is a fix for this level of putrid wrongdoing, but the fact that presidential corruption on this vast scale is not worth even a thought bubble among congressional Republicans is all the proof we need that the United States is no longer a functioning republic.

Those impressive oaths of office promising to uphold the Constitution. Piffle. No longer operative these days. The absolute monarchy has come to America.

Dr. Franklin was right. If we could keep it, he said, the republic that is. And it doesn’t appear we have.

 

Tony Park

Tony Park, who died earlier this month at 90, through his long public life came across as cheerful, friendly, almost easy going; watch him over time and you saw someone who could laugh without strain and accept setbacks as they came.

Not, you might say, the kind of personality type you’d usually expect as a stereotype state attorney general. Which he was, in fact, at the time when I first came to Idaho about a half-century ago.

He managed to reach that high office, and lost it, in part because of another quality, a willingness to walk headfirst into a hurricane, to jump into a political contest even when the timing was off and the environment was not favorable. Adverse circumstances did not seem to throw him.

That might be the side of him you’d most guess at from the title of his memoir, An Idaho Democrat. (Disclosure here: I published it in 2021.) He subtitled the book, “A political memoir of a political life,” and though he had a full life in other areas - including a law career long prominent in Idaho - that told you something about his priorities and concerns.

He spoke to that too, directly: “My purpose in this endeavor [writing the memoir] is to demonstrate through my personal experiences and progression how the Idaho political landscape—particularly regarding Democrats—has changed in the latter half of the twentieth century and early twenty-first century, despite the fact that many issues so important to Democrats, such as taking care of working people, the environment, the problems with one-party rule, etc., are as urgent now as they were when I got my start.”

Looking back, we often forget the losses and the downsides of political and government careers; the successes get the celebrations. Park learned from both ups and down, and he didn’t shy away from them.

As a young Boise attorney, he ran for the Idaho Legislature twice in the 60s, losing both times. (Boise, now Democratic, was a solidly Republican city then, more so than the state overall.) That didn’t stop him from taking on a bigger race, for attorney general, in 1970, and winning. Persistence was one of the lessons he learned.

Timing cut the other direction in 1972, when not halfway through his statewide term he ran for an open U.S. Senate seat: The lure was irresistible, as open Senate seats don’t come along often. But he wasn’t well enough established - “It was simply too soon for me to run,” he would write later -  and he didn’t make it through the primary. The timing, which also involved the successful candidacy of Republican James McClure, who was the front runner in the contest from start to finish, was bad this time.

Another lesson came when he agreed (on request from Governor Cecil Andrus) to take over the state investigative unit on illegal drugs, a group that famously became known as “Park’s Narcs.” It did not go well; the group became the subject of a number of scandalous headlines that damaged the new attorney general, even as he made well-received moves on other subjects.

But Park never avoided the subject - he devoted a chapter of his memoir to it - and learned from it the need to properly control, manage and situate sensitive government operations. Had he stayed in government -  he lost his bid for reelection in 1974 - the lessons he absorbed might have resulted in some useful government management.

When Park died, some of the comments about him suggest an artifact from a bygone, and in many ways a politically better, era.

I suspect he would see it a little differently.

Conditions and timing and hurricanes be damned: Walk into the whirlwind. Sometimes you can win and make a difference. Not always, but maybe enough.

 

Stand up

I’m all for cutting fraud out of our healthcare system. From huge corporations more interested in the shareholder than the patients, to schemers who defraud the government, to individuals who misrepresent their qualifications. Show me the wrongdoers and let’s go after them.

Our government has done a weak job of doing this. There have been some prosecutions on the federal level. Indeed, a clinic I know faced a Medicare audit. It was an eye opener.

Sometimes the codes submitted for payment are wrong. This is not fraud, it’s a mistake. And it should be corrected.

Knowingly taking the taxpayers money for false services is fraud. It’s difficult to prove in court, but it happens. Sometimes, the government can make it stick.

In 2019, Philip Esformes from South Florida was finally convicted of Medicare and Medicaid fraud to the tune of $1.3 BILLION dollars. It was a slog, but the Feds got him.

At the end of his first term, our President Trump commuted his sentence.

About that time Trump also commuted the sentence of John Estin Davis. He had been convicted of taking illegal kickbacks to the tune of $4M. At the same time Trump commuted his sentence, his own Justice department was investigating other allegations in the $10M range.

More recently, just days ago, Trump pardoned another nursing home magnate who falsified workers tax records. It appears the convict’s mom was a strong Trump supporter.

Now before you go all Hunter Biden on me, let’s be straight with each other.

Do you want to clean up the mess we’re in?

It took me a bit, but after the anatomy and physiology, I learned how to bill for my services. And, while driving home from a long day, I could imagine how to game the system. It was tempting.

I’m willing to bet some docs and more clinic administrators has such insight.

But I didn’t set up an LLC and get Medicare and Medicaid billing numbers and start the fraud. Nor did anyone I know. But I’ve now read about the big fish in the papers. I’m glad somebody brought down the hammer.

Now I’ve read about how our President has let them off.

I’m confused.

These Medicaid cuts proposed are based on the claims that some of the folks getting these benefits are fraudsters.

All while Congressional Republicans are making these claims, they are supporting a President who gives convicted big time Medicaid and Medicare fraudsters a get out of jail free card?

What about you Republicans out there? Does this make sense to you? Help me out. I can’t really understand this.

Well, that’s not true. I can understand it, but it doesn’t make you look good.

Speak up if I’ve got this wrong.

And, honestly, I understand the sentiment. I have had it. When my dollars were dear, taxes rubbed me wrong.

Some of us think that everybody should just go out and work for, earn, what they need to survive.

I thought that after a summer of fighting fires and filling out my 1040.

I thought that when I owed six times my annual income in debt, and I had to pay.

I resented taxes.

But I paid them. And it worked out.

The system I lived under back then when I was starting had interest rates you can’t imagine. But I had conviction, that if I did the work, lots, I could pay it off.

I didn’t scheme an LLC medical device to defraud my fellow citizens. I could have.

I guess it comes down to our values.

Can we accept that some folks need our help?

Can we accept that we can all help?

Isn’t this the more perfect Union?

 

One very cool cat

By Crash

(As told to Chuck Malloy)

Pssst! My name is Crash and I am the owner of Simply Cats, Boise’s premier cageless, no-kill, feline adoption center.

OK, I don’t own the facility. That would require money, and I have no idea what money is – unless it’s measured in catnip. But I do run the place, with staff people and a medical team responding to my every Meow. For my hard work, I get regular meals, a soft place to sleep and my litter box scooped daily.

That’s the least they can do for someone of my stature.

Yes, I am a celebrity – and I’m sure you have heard of me. Two years ago, I received the coveted Cadbury Bunny, which in my world is akin to sweeping a half a dozen Oscars in one night. Maybe I can get my paw prints on the Walk of Fame. Some of my friends have nicknamed me “Hollywood,” but I’m not sure I like that. “Hollywood Crash” sounds like a box-office flop, and I don’t want anything to do with flops – unless I’m about to get a belly rub.

But my life hasn’t always been about fame and glory. In 2018, when I was not even a year old, I was hit by a car and left on the side of a road. The director of Simply Cats saw me there, not knowing if I was even alive. I wasn’t sure myself. I lost my right eye and suffered a broken jaw and right arm. Thank goodness for nine lives! And good doctors, too.

Today, I’m as fit as a cat on a hot tin roof. I found my forever home at Simply Cats and my winning personality promotes all the good things that we do.

Every kitty here has a story, and some are sad. Buddy’s owner moved away and left him abandoned on a neighborhood street. Gerald was found near the foothills, tired and hungry. Nobody knows where he came from. Chum’s owner moved to a long-term care facility. Strix’s loving mom died unexpectedly, turning his life upside-down.

Simply Cats shelters about 50 cats at one time, and more when kitten season is in full bloom. The younger ones are sent to one of our many loving foster homes until they are old enough to be spayed or neutered. Foster care is kind of like a boot camp for kitties, without a drill instructor yelling, “I CAN’T HEEAAR YOU!”

We have the adoption process down to a science, at least as scientific as herding cats can get. It’s not a matter of coming in, picking out a cat and taking it home. We do our best to match a cat with the customer’s personality, and there are several categories (get it?) to choose from. With a “personal assistant,” it’s all paws on deck. They’ll be with you when you are watching TV, working on the computer, or reading a book.

If you don’t want that kind of attention, then you could look for a “sidekick” or “secret admirer.” There’s also “the leader of the band,” which means laughter and fun for everyone. If you really want something special, then take a look at the “love bugs.” Those cats must have fur made from Velcro.

But don’t take those designations too seriously. A sidekick or secret admirer can turn into a personal assistant with the drop of a whisker. After all, we are cats, and we do have minds of our own.

The staff also is there to help with whatever problems might occur with the adopted felines. I’m always available for consultation, and the quality of my advice gets better if you feed me a few treats.

As you can see, I do work hard, and some folks think I should be taking a vacation once in a while. I’ve looked at brochures for Catalina Island and the Catskills, and they look like nice places to visit. Maui might be fun for a few days (I like the name). I’ve also thought about taking a 12-day cruise on a catamaran, where I could have catnip on demand.

But it’s probably best that I stay here, since that crash took away most of my nine lives. Besides, they need me here at Simply Cats, where I have a purrfect life.

Chuck Malloy, a long-time Idaho journalist and columnist, is a writer with the Idaho Nonprofit Center/Idaho Community Foundation. He may be reached at ctmalloy@outlook.com

 

Rewind 2012: Lay of the land

From time to time, I've used this space to describe the unique nature of the several counties of Southwest Oregon. Politically, socially, economically - they don't resemble any other section of the state. Now, because of some of our "differences" folks here are starting to feel a lot of hurt. In several ways, that hurt is - and will be - self-inflicted. It's already begun.

First, some background. Geographically, we're isolated. Only Interstate 5 and Highway 101 on the coast run north and south through several counties. Some communities have no direct east/west access. Several are large but most land is owned by one level of government or another. Most communities are small. Timber cutting/processing is big. But - because of limited access to those government trees and given today's sluggish economy worldwide - unemployment is high and the standard of living for many is pretty low. The economic importance of commercial fishing is not near what it used to be and likely won't ever be again.

Population in several counties is older than typical. Several regional Vet's Administration hospitals account for a lot of that. Retirement, too. Not much here to keep lots of young folks. So, with many older people on fixed incomes - and without the usual liberalism balance of youth - politics hereabouts is very conservative. From right-of-center to edge-of-earth. Seceding from Oregon is not uncommon talk in our neighborhood.

A lot or our county commissions, city councils, boards and the like often have people who've served 10-20-30 years or more. Because of that - and the fact our county-city populations are mostly small, the folks that serve and folks that elect often have close relationships. Which - in some ways - has added to our problems.

Example: a multi-county electric cooperative nearby had a member who had been on the board more than 40 years. The co-op board prided itself on almost never raising electric rates, regardless of increases in costs of power it bought. It just didn't pay all the bills each month. The situation got so out-of-hand the federal agency that loaned the millions for all the system improvements over the years demanded a new repayment plan. Now! Or the Bonneville plug gets pulled! Rate increases - sizeable rate increases - hit the mailboxes and restructuring of the board of directors soon followed.

Another problem. Several counties have been receiving sizeable federal checks annually for years. The millions are supposed to support schools and other services because (a) the feds own so much land here and (b) the feds don't pay taxes. So "in lieu” monies were paid under a special program - a program that's now going away. Most everyone knew it would.

So - in the midst of our national economic troubles - these counties have been hit double. The hurting has begun. But only begun.

Our little burg is a one example of the problem, even though details here are better than most. Consider this: every dime of property tax raised here goes for county law enforcement. Every dime. All other county expenses come from various fees, the state and other sources. Like those federal timber payments. The ones ending. Our commissioners created a savings fund several years ago and it has helped. But when it's gone soon - then what?

For the last few months, the sheriff and some leading Republicans in Josephine County have been pushing hard for a small tax increase dedicated entirely to law enforcement. No increase, the sheriff said, and he'd have to reduce the number of jail prisoners from 90 to 30 and fire 70 deputies and staff. He'd have three contract deputies to patrol an entire county. No court security - no detectives - fewer prosecutors. A few weeks ago, voters said "NO INCREASE” at the polls by a large margin. The pink slips have gone out. Property and other "minor” crime lawbreakers are getting tickets and a pass. Permit applications for concealed weapons permits are skyrocketing. What now, Josephine County?
Lane County is hurting. Jail and court operations curtailed. Dozens of prisoners turned loose. Lane D.A. Alex Gardner says "It'll really be the Wild West here” meaning more lawbreakers on the street. Lane, Jackson and Coos Counties are cutting in all areas.

Curry County planned to go to voters for a local sales tax in a few months and had already told the State of Oregon it would go broke without it. But remember that consumer-surprise delayed electric rate story? And the vote in Josephine County? Curry has no savings account. In a county with a population of about 25,000 or so, who's gonna pay? And how much? And now this. NEWS FLASH: In the primary election a few weeks back, the two commissioners who proposed the local tax vote earlier this year - just proposed a vote - were defeated in their primaries this month. Defeated badly!

It is no overstatement to say the conservative nature of politics in SW Oregon, the isolation, the end of a long-standing federal support program and local dependence on what are now more limited natural resources have combined in something of a "perfect storm.” And all of that is playing out around a sizeable population of people who live here just for that isolation and who want to be "off the radar.” They are not highly sociable - not joiners - not part of the folks who do the volunteer and other tasks necessary to make a community close. And they hate taxes of any kind!

Though sprouts of green are showing up in the nation's economy, we're hurting here in SW Oregon. A unique set of circumstances - combined with an isolationist mind-set of far too many folks - is creating more problems than solutions. I don't hear a lot of "let's-get-our-shoulders-to-the wheel-and-get-back-on-the-road” talk. We're seeing more folks at local food distribution centers even though things may be getting better in Seattle and Omaha and Cleveland. Too many people who should be in jail around here are not. And some of the laid-off people responsible for putting them there are leaving.

If none of this applies to conditions where you are, I'm happy for you. But these are the conditions in our neighborhood. And it's gonna get worse.

 

Lady Liberty shudders

Ever since the Statue of Liberty raised her torch in New York Harbor, America has welcomed the “homeless, tempest-tossed” masses from foreign shores. Those seeking safety and opportunity in the United States have played a central role in making this country the leading world power it has been and the moral beacon it was. Unfortunately, our current government has decided to turn the page by pulling up the welcome mat and relinquishing its role as moral leader of the planet.

Just after being sworn in, Trump signed an executive order suspending refugee resettlement in the United States, which threw refugees waiting at foreign airports into limbo. He also suspended America’s asylum system, causing chaos amongst asylum seekers who faced danger in their home countries. Both programs were highly regarded around the world, reflecting great credit upon America. Now, both suspensions are being challenged in court actions.

In just over a hundred days in office, Donald Trump has empowered a substantial army of federal agents to track down and speedily deport any foreign-looking U.S. residents. Most Americans support the removal of dangerous foreigners, so long as they receive a fair hearing. But most of us believe it is counterproductive to toss out farm, construction and home care workers who are long-time residents that abide by the law and contribute to society.

Trump announced in February that Temporary Protected Status (TPS) would soon be revoked for about 530,000 Cubans, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans and Haitians. That means they would no longer be able to legally work in the U.S. and could be deported. Foreigners can be legally admitted with TPS when their home country suffers natural disaster or political upheaval. Trump has never been too keen on Haitians. During his first term he famously questioned why we should allow people from Haiti and African “sh_hole countries” to come to America. Presumably, his revocation of TPS would include the Haitians in Springfield, Ohio, who he falsely accused of eating the town’s cats and dogs. The Haitians were merely doing tough jobs that locals refused to do. Thankfully, a federal judge temporarily blocked the revocation order on April 14.

Inexplicably, Trump announced the cancellation of TPS for about 11,700 Afghans in the country, effective July 12. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem made the ludicrous claim that, “Afghanistan has had an improved security situation, and its stabilizing economy no longer prevent them from returning to their home country.”

However, a military veteran who heads an organization dedicated to saving the lives of Afghans who put their necks on the line to help and protect American troops, gave the Military Times an informed assessment: “Afghanistan remains under the control of the Taliban. There is no functioning asylum system. There are still assassinations, arbitrary arrests, and ongoing human rights abuses, especially against women and ethnic minorities.” We owe those folks big time and the administration should be ashamed for trying to send them back to almost certain death.

Rather than throwing our Afghan partners to the wolves, America should be using its best efforts to bring many more of those good friends to safety in the United States. We could take a page from the book of Idaho’s former Governor and Senator, Dirk Kempthorne. He teamed up with two Army officers and a young Afghan American, Nawid Mousa, to raise $1 Million to rescue 395 Afghan helpers and their families from Taliban clutches in 2021.

What kind of nation could live with the infamy of abandoning its allies to the savage retribution of an enemy? Of all people, Trump should be helping these beleaguered Afghans, because his so-called peacemaking effort contributed greatly to the Taliban victory. By excluding the Afghan government from the negotiations and giving a definite U.S. withdrawal date, while obtaining no enforceable commitments from the Taliban, Trump created the problem that caused these helpers to have to flee their country.

Despite all of Trump’s efforts to prevent refugees, asylees and other immigrants from reaching America’s protective shores, Trump has bypassed all of the time-tested vetting procedures to grant unfettered entry to nearly 60 white South Africans. The decision was apparently made without the many months of vetting that previous refugees have had to undergo. Trump claimed these folks were fleeing genocide in their country but there is absolutely no credible evidence to support that claim.

Regardless of Trump’s reasons for greenlighting the South African “refugees”, Idaho’s nationally-recognized refugee settlement program will give those coming to Idaho a warm reception, as should we all. Two families with a total of 9 members are settling in Twin Falls. I wish them a warm welcome to the Gem State.

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Budgeting into the unknown

The switch has flipped on the last stretch of this year’s Oregon legislative session and the central dynamic for the last and busiest phase ahead has been set. So, possibly, has the campaign dynamic for next year’s legislative elections.

Part of it involves a raucous economic debate over the administration of Donald Trump.

Most of the rest concerns how little predictability exists for conditions going forward.

The kickoff was a standard trigger of the Oregon legislative schedule, the release of the May Economic and Revenue Forecast from the Office of Economic Analysis. The last such report during this year’s session, it will form the basis for the legislature’s decisions on how much to spend and how much income should be brought in — through existing or new taxes. Normally, it can provide a clear direction for inking in policies and budgeting plans evolving up to this point.

The headline from this new report does say that less money is likely to be wrung out of existing state taxes than had been expected in previous estimates — a decrease not in revenue but in what was previously expected.

But it also emphasized a deep well of unknowns.

The report’s summary said it “comes at a time of exceptionally heightened uncertainty. Not only is it too soon to understand how the economy is responding to actions already taken — but, more broadly, the ultimate scope of critical policy decisions remains unknown. For example, even preliminary economic impacts from tariffs are unlikely to materialize in vital statistics such as employment or consumer prices for another month or two. Further, final details on tax reforms and budget reductions are only vaguely coming into view, and the eventual effective tariff rate will depend on the success of negotiations which have not yet occurred.”

The report did not specifically say a recession is likely — it even included a number of reasons it may not happen — but figured chances of a downturn at 25%, a possibility higher than usual.

The uncertainty is key. One forecaster said, “I can’t remember more tumultuous circumstances just going into producing this particular forecast.”

Government budgeters typically respond to uncertainty by budgeting lower amounts, to protect against revenue shortfalls.

Here is how the Hillsboro School District described the fallout: “What this means is that the Legislature has less discretionary revenue with which to make new investments in the 2025-27 biennium. That, coupled with ongoing uncertainty about federal funding to states for a variety of initiatives and programs, will likely limit additional support being directed to K-12 education.”

Coming weeks will be a budgeting session for gamblers: How confident are you of what conditions will apply at the end of this year and a year from now? Do you cut state spending, or raise taxes, when one or both may not be necessary? Those concerns may come against a background in which the state may be called on to help backfill long-expected federal help which is being withdrawn.

The Republican take on the budget appears to position this year’s budgeting cycle essentially like any other, with problems a function of the majority party’s inability to budget well enough. Senator Bruce Starr, R-Dundee, said for example, “This should be a wake-up call. With a half-billion-dollar shortfall, lawmakers must focus on core services and cut the waste.”

Representative E. Werner Reschke, R-Malin, said in a constituent newsletter, “Democrats need a doom and gloom message so that they can justify their plans for tax increases. If the headlines had been ‘State to receive record revenues for upcoming biennium’ do you think their new taxes message would be accepted by Oregonians? Of course not.”

The problem with those approaches is the unusual level of uncertainty in the latest estimates, something sharply different from past cycles. But they are likely to emerge in next year’s campaigns.

Democrats argued the circumstances are unusual, pointing to the Trump Administration, and especially its tariffs and spending actions, as the prime mover of uncertainty. House Speaker Julie Fahey, for example, said, “today’s revenue forecast confirms what economists have been telling us: the Trump administration’s reckless decisions are damaging our economy. … Oregon is particularly sensitive to the fallout from federal trade policies that have been changing on a whim since Trump’s inauguration.”

Look for the remaining month-plus of the legislative session to turn into a debate over the effect the Trump administration is having on Oregon. The contours of that discussion will likely shape politics in Oregon and beyond all the way to next November.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

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Anatomy of a kiss-up

I’m writing about Idaho - again.

I’ve long had a love-hate relationship with the state where I spent 40 years, and like some old (mostly) pleasant memory tinged with regret I just can’t shake the place - the mountains, the rivers, the old and good friends. Mostly the memories.

Idaho has also become for me a petrie dish through which to observe the growth of a kind of political bacteria that exposes just how far off the rails an already very conservative state has gone in the Time of Trump.

So, here goes.

An enduring feature of the Trump Era, in addition to the illegal executive orders, the senseless gutting of national health and science research, the chaotic and feckless approach to national security and the wildly corrupt behavior of the president, is the consistent and cringeworthy groveling by Republican elected officials seeking the favor of our would-be king.

Incredible news for Idaho’s farmers and ranchers! This trade agreement with the U.K. will open exciting new opportunities for Idaho agriculture. Thank you President Donald J. Trump for your leadership!

You come to expect that level of obsequious fawning from a Cabinet secretary or Fox News or Russian television host, but that quote came on May 8 from the two-term governor of Idaho, Brad Little.

Little, as in there is nothing too belittling for him to do in order to kiss up to Donald Trump, once had a discerning and practical political mind. That mind has now been infested, RFK, Jr.-style, with Trumpian brain worms.

Earlier this week Little posted a short video of himself standing in front of the White House with “Made in Idaho” products spread on a White House driveway. He was positively giddy.

I just dropped off some of our Great Idaho commodities at the White House to thank President @realDonaldTrump for his incredible trade deal with the UK!

I am excited to announce Idaho is headed to the UK this fall to build off @POTUS’ great work and promote Idaho agriculture!

As a general rule governors should refrain – we should all refrain – from excessive exclamation point usage, but four !!!! in two short messages !

Wow! Good thing no tariffs were imposed on (!) points.

Did the governor of Idaho really fly all the way across the country to make a 24 second Facebook video simply to curry favor with his king? You betcha he did.

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He’s apparently running for re-election next year and needs the “total and complete” blessing of the American Sun King to ward off a challenge from the even farther right. ¹

These cuddle up, ego stroking, fulsome praise and fawn over messages have, of course, only an audience of one. Trump was in Qatar at the time Little was preening in front of the White House this week, arranging, no doubt, the details of his wildly !!! unconstitutional luxury Boeing 747 gift (or grift) from the absolute monarch of that terrorist supporting Middle East country.

But the governor knows a Facebook post lasts forever and surely the White House Office of Sycophantic Governors Who Support the Great Man is keeping track of such things. If so, it was a good week for the shrinking governor from Idaho.

But here’s the thing: this great UK – US trade deal is a sham when it comes to Idaho and most other states. The announcement of the “deal” was a press release mascaraing as trade policy.

Since UK prime minister Sir Kier Starmer needed a “deal” as badly as the president both men hyped the agreement for all it was worth, which isn’t much since the specifics for agriculture producers were, well, mostly non-existent.

As the BBC reported:

The US has agreed to reduce import taxes on a set number of British cars and allow some steel and aluminum into the country tariff-free, as part of a new agreement between the US and UK.

Great news for the Idaho market for Bentleys and Jaguars and the state’s vast import market for metals. But, you may ask, what about those Idaho agricultural products that are now going to flow so freely toward the Brits? ²

There does appear to be some potential upside for the U.S. beef exports to the U.K. – the governor is a rancher – but the fine print details are rather foggy, as in we have a concept of an agreement and nothing more.

The American Farm Bureau Federation called it an "important first step", while noting “more work is needed.”

“This is a good deal for American farmers ... but it is at the end of the day a fairly narrowly-focused framework,” said Lewis Lukens, former acting US Ambassador to the UK and deputy chief of mission to the US embassy in London during part of Trump's first term.

“It gives Trump a political victory with not too much really to show behind it.”

As Reuter’s reported: “Both sides have agreed to new reciprocal market access on beef, with UK farmers given a first-ever tariff-free quota for 13,000 metric tons.”

In other words: U.K. beef coming to the U.S.

But there is more “incredible news for Idaho farmers.”

“There will be no weakening of UK food standards on imports, despite repeated entreaties by the U.S. side.

“Crucially there will be no weakening of UK food standards on U.S. beef imports, which was an election manifesto pledge for the Labour government. That means U.S. beef bred with growth hormones still won't be allowed in.

“U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the deal would ‘exponentially increase’ U.S. beef exports to Britain. But much depends on whether American beef could compete with the British beef on price and find favor with British consumers.

“Currently 100% of the fresh beef sold by Britain's two biggest supermarket chains Tesco and Sainsbury’s is British and Irish.”

A concept of a deal with a thousand loose ends. That is what the governor is touting with all those exclamation points.

But the fact-based world is just a concept for Republican governors whose political future depends on the art of the kiss up. The reality, as the Washington Post noted, is the UK’s trade future, given the chaos and unpredictability of the Trump Era, is with Europe, not with Idaho.

“Starmer is trying to placate Trump even as the British prime minister seeks a new post-Brexit relationship with Europe,” the Post reported, “which is a far more important farm market than the United States. Britain and the E.U. are expected to announce their trade deal as soon as next week.

“Starmer will host E.U. leaders in London on May 19 in what is being dubbed a major Brexit ‘reset’ summit, where leaders are expected to discuss ways to further trade and cooperation between the U.K. and the trading bloc.”

The governor might want to reconsider his trade mission to the UK this fall and book a ticket – maybe take some Idaho spuds or peas and lentils along – and head for Brussels, or Ottawa.

One follower of Brad Little on Facebook posted the only possibly appropriate comment to his servile Trumpian fabulism about trade and so much more.

“Weird,” she said.

 

Expansion

In the northern Idaho university city of Moscow, Christ Church, a Christian nationalist center of national note, is an ongoing controversy. A few miles away at the town of Troy, it has become a federal case.

Like many communities anchored by higher education, Moscow long has leaned blue (usually voting Democratic for major offices), and the growing Christ Church community and its leader Doug Wilson have been a counterweight to that. More than that, really.

It is much more than just a church where people gather to worship, though that is part of it. The entities associated with it include a small religious college (St. Andrews), a private school, a publishing house and more. Its philosophical stance is distinctive, its focus on “traditional” family and gender roles is on the cultural edge. In 2004 Wilson set up a conference arguing that slavery created “a genuine affection between the races.” And so on.

But that is not all either. One analyst, Heath Druzin, who has examined the church extensively, said that “What Doug Wilson wants to do, according to Doug Wilson, is change society; create an American theocracy.”

It is a force in the community. It may have been a decisive factor in local legislative races, and has been active in city politics. A significant part of downtown is now owned by the church or its allies. Wilson’s view of its future clearly is not that of being just one element of the community among many. When his church proclaims (as it does on its website) “our desire is to make Moscow a Christian town,” it means their kind of Christian, not anyone else’s, and dominated by their church.

This hasn’t gone unnoticed. Last December about 200 people gathered in Moscow to consider how to respond to the growing group, prompted in part by a recent podcast about it that has had more than a million downloads.

Christ Church also proclaims on its website “a regular series of church plants on the Palouse.” Troy, presumably, would be one of them.

One University of Idaho wag famously remarked that without the university, Moscow would be known as “the gateway to Troy,” but Troy is nothing like Moscow, and is much like most of the smaller communities in northern Idaho and in Latah County. With a population of about 900, it is conservative and Republican in its voting. In 2024 Donald Trump won its precinct 546-230, Republican Representative Russ Fulcher 532-226 and Republican state Senator Dan  Foreman (who has had harsh things to say about Moscow) 478-330. That’s a pattern consistent over recent years.

So you might think a proposal to plant an outpost of Christ Church in Troy would go over well. It has not. That city’s government, reacting to public attitudes, has blocked an attempt by a Christ Church member to set up a regular Sunday morning meeting in a downtown Troy location (a building owned by the church member).

It hasn’t. And it’s now literally a federal case - a lawsuit filed by the U.S. Department of Justice., alleging that the city’s action has blocked Christ Church’s freedom of religion, a violation of federal law. DOJ said: “The lawsuit alleges that Christ Church had outgrown the space where it had been worshipping and was unable to find a space to rent. It then sought a CUP [conditional use permit] to operate a church in the City’s C-1 [commercial industrial] zoning district, where nonreligious assembly uses such as clubs, museums, auditoriums, and art galleries were allowed. Local residents vociferously opposed the Church’s CUP application, and many of their written and verbal comments reflected animus against Christ Church’s beliefs. In its denial of the Church’s CUP application, the City cited the fact that the public was ‘heavily against’ it and that the ‘great majority of the city residents’ opposed granting the CUP.”

Put aside for a moment the regulatory and legal details, which seem a little murky in places. Consider instead the attitudes being uncovered here.

Motivations are hard to assess conclusively. But, was the opposition in Troy really about the church and its doctrine and spiritual beliefs or about the larger political and social picture of what Christ Church locally is seeking to be and do?

Put another way: Might it be that the people of Troy aren’t too keen on the idea of being taken over?