On May 21, Oregon’s Democratic-registered voters made their choice for their nominee for president. It was not close: 87% of them – about 362,500 voters – weighed in for the incumbent, President Joe Biden.
Oregon has been Biden country for some time. In the 2020 election, Biden won Oregon’s vote by 16 percentage points, well above his national average.
In all, Oregon will have 78 delegates at the 2024 national convention, 12 of which are “superdelegates” who can vote as they choose but cannot vote during the first round and will only cast votes if a candidate doesn’t receive majority support in the first round. The other 66 were chosen based on the primary election results, and Biden has been slated to receive the votes of all of them. State law requires delegates to sign a pledge to continue supporting their candidate through the first two rounds of balloting unless the candidate releases them from that pledge or receives less than 35% of the nominating votes.
Now that Biden is no longer running for president, and has thrown his backing to Vice President Kamala Harris, he has effectively released them to do as they will.
In a strict sense, the delegates, including Oregon’s, have the power. No longer bound to vote for Biden, they can choose to support at the convention anyone they like.
The old political adage in presidential politics was that Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line. Will Oregon’s Democrats turn that on its head this year?
Probably. Delegates around the country could react in different ways, but there’s reason to think Oregon’s delegates are likely – barring any new unforeseen developments – to join the Harris campaign.
In many states, Democrats are scattered, geographically and organizationally. In Oregon, they’re relatively organized, reflecting the organized labor structure that has helped them to so many wins. In some states, many delegates may be atomized, with little outreach from other nearby party members. In Oregon, that’s less likely to happen.
And what have the leaders been saying?
Some had not yet weighed in on the nomination question in the hours after Biden announced he was withdrawing. They confined themselves to praise for his leadership. Like other state party organizations, Oregon’s is supposed to avoid weighing in on candidates for a nomination until the question is settled.
But by Monday, many of Democratic leaders in Oregon, who are also superdelegates, had voiced support for Harris. The big name is Sen. Ron Wyden, probably Oregon’s leading Democrat, who declared, “I’m all in to support Vice President Harris with all my energy.” Oregon’s other senator, Jeff Merkley, also voiced support for Harris as did Oregon’s Democratic House members, Reps. Earl Blumenauer, Suzanne Bonamici, Val Hoyle, and Andrea Salinas.
Gov. Tina Kotek, another superdelegate, also backed Harris on Monday, releasing a statement through her campaign that said she was “proud” to endorse the vice president.
“She’s tough, she’s smart and she’s ready to unite the country. Kamala Harris should be our next president,” Kotek said.
Some individual party officials expressed support for Harris as well. At least one convention delegate from Oregon, Kevin Stine of Medford, said he would vote for Harris.
Matt Keating, a member of the Democratic National Committee from Oregon who is also a member of the Eugene City Council, signed a letter including scores of names of Democratic officials around the county, declaring support for Harris.
Many delegates and party officials have not made a formal or public statement so far, but when they do, those who have are likely to play a visible role in the discussions and possibly help set its course. Some states – Tennessee and South Carolina are two – already have held Democratic delegate meet-ups, either in person or virtually, to discuss options, and Oregon could and probably will do something similar.
The Harris campaign has a solid beachhead in Oregon’s Democratic organization, and it probably will grow swiftly over the next week or two. There’s been no apparent pushback either from other prospective candidates or even from the alternative suggestion of arranging a competitive battle – a gladiatorial “thunderdome” approach.
Oregon’s role in deciding the nomination is not among the largest – bigger states have many more delegates – but it could be on the front end of deciding on a nominee. That might make Oregon a more important state in the Democratic presidential nominating process than anyone would have thought early this year, or even when the party’s primary voters were casting their ballots.
This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.
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