From an outside point of view, you can understand how this will look, which may be a little strange.
After all, the 27 delegates Idaho will send to the National Democratic Convention – the number isn’t especially large, partly because Idaho is a small-population state and partly because it doesn’t elect a lot of Democrats – who were chosen at the state party’s convention, were prepared to vote for incumbent President Joe Biden.
Until he withdrew from the race. Within only a day or so, they shifted as if in a military drill, in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Hours after that was locked into place, Idaho Democratic Party Chair Lauren Necochea released a statement saying: “Idaho Democrats are united in our support of Kamala Harris as the next President of the United States.”
All this in a state where, in contrast to a number of blue states where the Democratic organization is tightly constructed, Democrats tend to be, shall we say, a bit less precision-drill.
It has the appearance of puppetry and of behind the scenes management. .
But you don’t have to wade into very deep weeds to see how this change in presidential candidate support – in Idaho as in other states – almost had to play out more or less as it has.
The Democratic delegates were united behind Biden up until earlier this month in part because he was the only real choice in the party by the time the party’s delegate-selection process kicked in. Two or three minor names were out there, but Biden nearly had the Democratic field to himself. (It was quite a contrast even to the Republican field this year, where Donald Trump was the clearly dominant figure but opponents like Ron DeSantis and Nikky Haley, though losing decisively, were much more than minor or unknown contenders.)
The single-dominant candidate scenario is the way it works, typically the rule and not the exception, with incumbent presidents and their parties. That’s how it happened with Donald Trump in 2020.
What’s new this year is the Biden dropout, so late in the campaign season, the kind of late campaign development that has never happened before in the nation’s history.
So how to select a replacement nominee, at such a late stage?
Much of the national punditry seemed enamored of some kind of mini-primary or contest – the “thunderdome” scenario, in which a bunch of leading national figures from the Democratic party might rise up and campaign, albeit briefly, for the nomination. But that would only ever happen if multiple major candidates emerged to participate. As a matter of practical reality, it couldn’t happen, because no one but Kamala Harris would have available the organization and money and background of campaigning around the country, needed to make it work. No other candidate could possibly put together a national presidential campaign in the time available. A year ago, yes; at this point only weeks ahead of the general election, no.
In the hours and days after Biden’s announcement, Harris simply was the only contender to join in, and the only one with the practical resources to make a candidacy work.
In fact, even now others could try entering the race if they really wanted to. All they’d have to do would be to line up support from at least 300 delegates – a reasonable measure of some serious support within the convention. But absolutely no one has made any move toward doing that, other than Harris. Don’t hold your breath waiting for someone to do it.
So with Biden out, where else other than Harris were those Idaho delegates – and others around the country – going to go?
This may sound as if they were backed unwillingly into a corner, and I don’t mean to suggest that. The support for Harris within the party overall seems genuine and specifically within Democratic circles in Idaho (and yes, they do exist) as well. I talked with a number of Idaho Democrats in the days after the Biden-Harris switch, and all seemed pleased with the change and optimistic about it.
Yes it looked a little odd. But that doesn’t mean it was.
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