The Boise State University public policy survey has been undertaken, in one name or another, going back into the last century, and one question often seems to be the cornerstone of it: Is the state heading in the right or wrong direction?
The easy and typical take on the opinion poll is to point out how different the views of Idahoans are as reported in the polls compared with those of their legislators. For example, in a column in January 2017 I asked how the views of the polled would match with those of the people on the third floor of the Statehouse during the legislative session. (The spoiler is: They don’t match up well at all.)
This year, the venerable survey (it’s almost a surprising the legislature hasn’t tried to ban it) got a little extra attention because, in contrast to every year previous, the prevailing answer to the standard right direction/wrong direction question was – 43 percent to 40.7 percent – leaning to the the wrong direction.
But what does that mean?
Based on recent statements, both a hard-line Republican like party Chair Dorothy Moon and, for example, an abortion choice activist realistically might say “wrong direction,†but what each of them intends by that would be completely different.
Why did that 43 percent contend Idaho was headed the wrong way? About 15% of them blamed Republicans and conservatives (this accounted for 23.2 percent of Democratic respondents), but 7.9 percent pointed to liberals and Democrats (20.4 percent of Republicans chose this). (I’m not sure how that second problem area is supposed to work as a practical matter in the context of Idaho.)
Another 11.8 percent blame politicians and the legislature, apparently indiscriminately; and 6.7 percent took issue with “abortion issues/women’s right,†but without a specific indication of which side was right and which wrong. Another 12.1 percent didn’t like Californians and other immigrants arriving, but that could represent a mix of negative attitudes aimed at conservatives, liberals, people from another country or something else.
And so on. So what we get is that a lot of Idahoans are dissatisfied, but there’s not a lot of clarity as to why.
We do get a little more clarity in other areas.
The survey asked what the top legislative priorities should be – not exactly what the answers are, but where action is needed. Education came in first, followed by jobs and the economy, housing, health, taxes, and the environment. Tht roster held more or less evenly across partisan ranks, which doesn’t offer a lot of explanation for the legislation that has dominated attention at this year’s session so far.
The closest thing to a clear through line here may come from another attitude question: “Over the next two years, do you expect the economic condition in Idaho to get better, worse, or stay about the same?
Put aside that what better or worse may mean to various Idahoans is likely to vary, and consider this: While the largest portion (37.8 percent) figured things will stay about the same, that was closely followed (36.2 percent) by those who estimate things will get worse. A paltry 19 percent think economic conditions in Idaho will be improving.
And here’s something that ought to be notable: Republicans were the bears on the upcoming economy, while Democrats were the bulls. The people who have controlled the state are a lot more pessimistic than the people complaining from the outside. Not only that, while the Democratic take on optimism/pessimism has been relatively stable in recent years, Republicans have cratered in their optimism in the last two to three years.
A majority of Idahoans evidently have taken their stands on one side in the political-culture wars. But there remain plenty of others who aren’t joining them there. The divisions within Idaho – as demonstrated by feelings – remain real.
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