Across much of the nation, as much of the nation prepares to buckle in for a rough ride in what may be a ferocious presidential election year, Oregon will be watching a lot of the action from balcony.
It just doesn't have the look of a powerhouse election year in the Beaver State.
Certainly not at the presidential level. As has been true for some decades (remember when Oregon was actually closely watched in 1968 and 1976?), Oregon won't be pivotal in the presidential nomination process because its primary elections are toward the back end of the cycle; both parties are almost sure to have nailed down their presidential nominees well before then. If either of them hasn't, it'll be an even wilder election year than most of us think.
And as for the presidential election, there's little room to doubt that the Democrat - Joe Biden, presumably - will get the state's electoral votes. That's been the result every time out since 1984, when Ronald Reagan was the last Republican to score there.
Oregon has no U.S. Senate races in 2024. The last few have been so noncompetitive as to be almost unnoticeable, but even that bit of notoriety will be absent.
There will be at least one very hot U.S. House race, and maybe more. The clear competitive spot will be District 5, where Republican Representative Lori Chavez-DeRemer will be playing defense in a tough district - which leans sightly Democratic - in a year when the top of the ticket is unlikely to give her much help. (The management of the U.S. House this year, and maybe next, likely won't help much either.) District 6, held by Democrat Andrea Salinas, probably won't be quite as hotly contested, but this too is a competitive district and the potential is there if Republicans organize well and produce the right nominee.
The legislature, notably the state Senate, is likely to be less up for grabs than it was two years ago. All of the House seats are up, but early indications seem to suggest not a lot of change there. And in the Senate, Republicans had their best shot at a majority last time. This cycle's batch of Senate seats (they serve four-year terms, with different districts alternating on the ballot) are more likely to favor Democrats, and Republicans will have to scramble to hold on to their present margin, with odds that they may lose a seat or two. (That may be true whatever happens with the current lawsuit over whether the walkout Republicans may, against the intended reading of a new constitutional amendment, will be allowed to serve another term.)
The governor's office won't be up, but other major state offices - attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer - will be. The most interesting of these so far (and probably the most interesting contest in the state apart from the 5th congressional district) looks to be secretary of state, where incumbent Treasurer Tobias Read (who ran for governor in 2022) faces off against state Senate James Manning of Eugene. It doesn't look like an easily predictable race, and both candidate bring some real strengths to the contest.
When a primary contest for secretary of state may be the most interesting Oregon political contest of the year ... well, that may tell you something. Oregon just isn't looking like a hotbed of political excitement for 2024.
Barring the unexpected. So stay tuned.
(image/Wikimedia Commons, Thad Roan)
