The big picture of the Idaho Legislature is largely set in place, and has been since candidate filing (at least). Republicans, and among them people ever farther to the right, will be in charge next term.
On a more granular level, making some variable amounts of difference over time, we find legislative contests that are more up for grabs, either in final results or as indicators for the future. There are some real contests among Idaho legislative battles; not all are foreordained.
Here are some of them - not all, but enough to give you sense of some of what’s at stake.
The three races in District 6. This is the district based around Latah County, with a slice of the Lewiston area - a district moving a little more Democratic than the near-comparable district has been for the last decade, and now probably competitive to maybe even Democratic-leaning (at least from appearances). The one incumbent is a Democrat, Senator David Nelson, and his Republican opponent, Dan Foreman, is a former senator who lost re-election. Both House seats appear competitive.
District 15 Senate. This one has a high bid as the premier legislative race in Idaho this year. One reason is the swinging nature of this district in the mid-Boise/Meridian area which has been electing a hard-campaigning Democrat (Steve Berch) to the House for a while now, and likely will again. The Senate seat pits Democrat Rick Just, running a second time, against Republican Codi Galloway, a House member who defeated incumbent Fred Martin in the Republican primary. Martin has since endorsed Just as a more worthy successor, an indicator of how strong feelings are running here. After the state attorney general’s race, this will be the first set of results I’ll be watching for on election night.
District 26 House A. It’s been a shift in population trends: 20 years or even 10 years ago Blaine County, especially the Wood River Valley, was populous and growing fast enough to dominate a legislative district, but today it’s no longer dominant, just a significant factor. The Democratic Wood River Valley in this reshaped district is balanced by growing and Republican Jerome County. Of the three current Democratic legislators from Blaine just one, Representative Ned Burns, is running to hold on in the new district (against Republican Mike Pohanka). This may or may not be a competitive district in the next few years; how this race evolves may tell us a lot about that.
District 29 Senate. Democrats have managed to hold on, mostly, in the central Pocatello district where historically (back in the day when I lived there) they were dominant. The future of that may hinge a good deal on how this Senate race evolves, between James Ruchti, now a Democratic representative, and Republican David Worley, who ran unsuccessfully (but strongly) for mayor of Pocatello last year. Worley’s approach this year seems to be full-on culture war; Ruchti is a centrist attorney long active in Democratic politics. Ruchti probably wins, but keep an eye on this one.
Not every race worth watching is strictly a matter of win-loss; some are worth noting to see what levels of support develop even when a win isn’t resulting. For example, in Idaho’s far north - District 1 - Republican Scott Herndon is unopposed on the ballot, but independent Steve Johnson is trying an ambitious write-in effort. Write-ins usually fail against ballot candidates, but I’ll be watching to see how many votes Johnson does get.
Is there another future Steve Berch out there? Berch, who has developed a strong west Ada base in an area once closed to Democrats, could be a model for others around the Boise metro area (and Berch went through years of losses before he broke through). I’ve been advised to keep a look out, for example, toward Bob Solomon and Toni Ferro in a pair of Canyon County Senate races, and Natalie MacLachlan (who’s been running for more than a year and a half) for a Meridian-area House seat.
The big Idaho race a lot of people will watch this election night will be for attorney general. But there’s plenty else on the ballot to watch if you know what to look for.