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Posts published in “Day: August 6, 2013”

Murray-McGinn

August 6, 2013
oregon
RANDY STAPILUS / Washington

Yeah, there were plenty of people saying incumbent Seattle Mike McGinn might not even make the runoff in today's primary election. You can understand why, given the history: Four years ago, incumbent Mayor Greg Nickels, who was a much more experienced and seemingly stronger candidate, ran in third place behind McGinn (who came in a narrow first) and Joe Mallahan (second).

McGinn just hasn't seemed like a strong, dominant leader. the narrative since before he took office was that this guy was running the city. When Governor Chris Gregoire had to meet with a Seattle leader on transportation issues, she met with people from the Council. Nickels, at least, had been a forceful presence.

But maybe that matter of personality shouldn't be read, as a matter of popularity with the voters, quite so simplistically. McGinn has been underestimated over and over.

Okay. Some context, then.

Political calculus is that an incumbent forced into a runoff - in other words, an incumbent (whether that's Mayor of Seattle or a council member at Baker City) who fails to get 50% of the vote in the primary, is in trouble for the general election. Incumbents usually pull their full weight first time around; they don't usually pick up many votes from voters who already have opted to change the occupant of the office. That's true even if you come in first, but under 50%, in the primary. And McGinn came in second, with only 27% of the vote, to Ed Murray's 30%.

The odds have to favor Murray for the November faceoff.

But don't be too quick to write this off. A great deal will depend on what kind of face Murray presents to the Seattle electorate. As he puts that effort together, he may want to reflect on the particular personal qualities that voters have found appealing so far in McGinn. There are reasons, after all, why he's the mayor and, say, Greg Nickels is not. Even under these conditions, he should be underestimated at risk.

Problem? What problem?

August 6, 2013
rainey BARRETT
RAINEY
 
Second
Thoughts

In every recovery program, the first step is always to admit you have a problem, then proceed. Without that admission, any improvement will be temporary. No use continuing. First recognition. Then work can begin.

While both national political parties can fairly shoulder blame for the mess in Congress, Republicans have far longer to go to “recovery.” Neither party is willing to admit blame, but GOP minions keep adding to the stalemate with constant attacks. The political chattering class has repeatedly used the word “gridlock” to describe the stalemate. I beg to differ. It’s not gridlock.

Rather than seeking to tie things up – gridlock as it were – about 60 cretins in the two houses are waging direct assaults on government, trying to seriously cripple it – gut it – to tear down every thing they find onerous. To some of them, that means almost everything governmental. A friend noted recently that, if this were wartime, what some of these people are doing would be considered treasonous. And Limbaugh, Beck and cohorts would be nothing more than Tokyo Roses with male plumbing. Propagandists.

Recent polling repeatedly shows most Americans – way most – are looking at 2014 elections to change things. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll even shows six in ten want to replace every member of Congress. But that – despite media claims of “proof of voter anger” – is very, very misleading.

Further down in the numbers, you’ll find 44% of Democrats want their party running Congress – 44% of Republicans want their party in charge. In Democrat districts, 56% approve what the President is doing – 58% of Republicans disapprove. Throw in successful 2011 GOP gerrymandering in many large states to protect incumbents and you have a recipe for what? No change. Now, THAT’S gridlock.

I call it the “good guy – bad guy” syndrome. “My guy in Congress is the good guy,” sez I. “Your guy’s the bad guy.” While I’d like to erase the entire Texas delegation, near total domination in their home state obviously means they’re thought of as “good guys” down there. I’d throw out John Boehner and Harry Reid. But Boehner’s been in the House for 22 years: Reid in House and Senate since 1987. So a voting majority back home(s) considers both guys “good guys.”

Americans are mad at Congress. Damned mad! That NBC/WSJ poll found 83% – 83% – disapprove of what’s going on there. But, while those same respondents hold the absolute power to change things at the ballot box, change they won’t. Not as long as those other numbers show each side sees the blame for our political mess as the fault of the other side. No admission like “I’ve got a problem.” So no “recovery.” (more…)