Let’s start with what we think we know: 1) Governor C.L. “Butch” Otter has said he is running for a third term; 2) First District Congressman Raul Labrador appears to be backing away from challenging the governor because some pundits are making much out of the little amount of fund-raising he has done lately.
Here are some other pertinent “facts”: 1) When in the Legislature then State Rep. Labrador took on the governor twice, and beat him on the issue of increased fuel taxes to further upgrade badly decaying highways and bridges; and, succeeded in replacing the governor’s hand-picked state chairman with Norm Semanko, head of the Idaho Water Users Association.
2) Supposedly this has made the two men political enemies with each hoping he has the chance metaphorically to knife the other.
3) The First Lady, Lori Otter, so enjoys her role that she is the driving force behind the governor seeking a third term.
Then there is the fact that Rep. Labrador is responsible for recruiting the Club for Growth to underwrite Idaho Falls attorney and Tea Partyite Bryan Smith’s primary challenge against long-time Second District congressman Mike Simpson. The former Blackfoot dentist is a close ally of current House Speaker John Boehner.
Now here’s what we don’t know: 1) Congressman Labrador’s longterm goal; 2) What Governor Otter’s real goal is; 3) What Governor Otter may have said to his loyal Lt. Governor, Brad Little, and 4) Whether any scientific polling has been done by anyone.
So, anyone’s guess is as good as anyone else’. Here’s my educated guess.
There is a huge bluff game being played and at this point it appears Governor Otter has bluffed Congressman Labrador into thinking he really is running for a third term. Furthermore, the governor appears to have convinced Labrador that in a head-to-head primary he would kick Labrador’s rear.
To that end there are rumors Governor Otter is quietly preparing a huge north Idaho fund-raiser that will feature - no, not Tea Party darling and the new Senator from Texas, Ted Cruz - but rather the charismatic governor from New Jersey, Chris Christie. Governor Christie is clearly no favorite of the Tea Party so this has about it an “in your face” message to Labrador.
Neither does holding a fund-raiser remove all doubt about the governor’s intentions. He does in fact have a hold-over campaign debt (a loan from himself to his campaign) and the proceeds all could go to paying off the debt to himself. (more…)