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Posts published in “Day: March 8, 2012”

OR House: Some additional math

March 8, 2012

We've just been going through the new Oregon voter registration stats (by party, for legislative districts - nearly complete numbers have just become available through the Secretary of State's office), and noticed something of interest: The over-performance of Republicans in the last general election based on voter registration.

Republicans hold 14 of the 30 seats in the Oregon Senate, and 30 of 60 in the Oregon County - very nearly half across the board. Not consider this: Registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats in just 10 of the 30 Senate districts, and in 23 of the 60 House districts. If voters voted strictly on party lines, Republicans would not be hitting close to half.

The state Democratic Party put it this way: "Democrats are poised to take back the House, with excellent candidates set to run against vulnerable Republicans in key districts. There are eight current Republican-held seats in which Democrats have a voter registration advantage, versus zero in the reverse."

On Blue Oregon, Kari Chisholm wrote, "And voter turnout will be on our side, too. As I wrote way back in 2006, Democrats almost always win Oregon House seats in presidential years (one in '88; none in '92; two in '96, '00, '04; and five in '08.) Republicans are claiming that their slate of small business owners can pick up seats, but I'm not buying it."

Although Republicans seem to have done a good job again on candidate recruitment, the Democrats seem to have the initial edge as both parties scramble for that one-plus seat needed to re-grasp control of the chamber.

Oregon’s free rides

March 8, 2012

Two years ago about this time, not many people outside the Oregon Republican Party strategic circles would have thought very likely that Republicans would pick up enough state House seats to bring that party to 30-30 parity with the Democrats. There was a foreshadowing of it, though, on the Friday night speech session at the Dorchester conference. There, Republican leaders asked the candidates for the House to stand - and announced that they represented candidacies for all but three (or was it four?) of the 60 House seats.

That statistic was a hell of a marker, and what became clearer through the campaign season is that a lot of those candidates were, in addition, solid candidates, quality contenders and no mere placeholders. Republicans last cycle had the advantage of a favorable year in 2010, but their strong recruitment effort put them in position to take advantage.

This time? Now that we have the filings before us, we know that Oregon Republicans are giving free rides to Democrats in only four of the 60 House seats - a performance, based on the statistic at least, that could put them in good shape for the fall. Oregon Democrats, on the other hand, are giving Republicans free rides in eight seats.

Starting at a 30-30 tie, such things matter.