How can you tell when a candidate really thinks he's demonstrably ahead? One of the best measuring sticks is an unwillingness to debate, or at least to cut the number of debates as far as possible.
In the two major contests in Idaho, gubernatorial - between Republican incumbent C.L. "Butch" Otter and Democrat Keith Allred - and the 1st District U.S. House - between incumbent Democrat Walt Minnick and challenger Raul Labrador - debates have or will occur. (The gubernatorial candidates already had one faceoff in Idaho Falls.)
But ... in this last week, we've seen Otter, who's favored in polls for re-election, back off from a Lewiston debate. And Minnick, who has similarly seen some good poll numbers, easing back from a debate set up by KTVB-TV. Both candidates apparently had earlier given tentative approvals to appearing in both events.
The internal polling must be looking good, too.