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Posts published in “Day: November 18, 2008”

Remapping already (congressional)

Yes of course - congressional (and legislative) reapportionment won't happen until after 2010, and after the next general election. But now, with this 2008 election under out belts, we actually have enough raw material to work with to evaluate how congressional-level reapportionment might play out in another two and a half years or so.

For one thing, we have what looks like a stabilizing political picture in most places around the Northwest - after some years of change, the partisan balances for most races changed less this election than in the last, or even the election before that. That's no guarantee of the future, of course, but some reason to be believe that areas running generally Democratic or Republican now may not change enormously in the near term.

The economic slowdown is a relevant factor too, since population growth is likely to slow, relatively locking into place a number of existing patterns.

So what might we be looking at?

First, mostly the number of congressional seats we have now. Idaho is almost certain to stay at two seats after 2010 (though if growth picks back up, a third in the round after that may be realistic). Washington is closer to a gain of one seat, though the odds look less than even. Oregon is a close call, though, and various studies have estimated it just within or just outside the margin for a one-seat pickup. It's close enough that we probably can't know with any certainty until after the census is in.

Given all that, what might the legislatures and governors in the three states do about divvying the districts? (more…)