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Posts published in “Day: April 7, 2008”

Gregoire at the launch

Jeff Kropf

Chris Gregoire campaigning at Vancouver/Stapilus

The lasting impression, watching Washington Governor Chris Gregoire working a crowd at Vancouver on day one of her first major campaign swing of the year, was that she's gotten better at this than she was four years ago.

She should have, of course. Candidate Gregoire in 2004 was Christine, with the proper name and the litigator's manner. Intelligence and competence came across clearly enough, but she could be a little hard to warm to. 2008's candidate Chris seemed more relaxed and easy, at least as energetic (maybe more so) but less wired. The crowd at Vancouver, where we watched her in action, was a group of Democratic activists, officials and supporters and so primed to support her, but the interaction seemed warmer than would have been obligatory. Every so often the lawyer flashed an appearance, and some of her pushes for enthusiasm were a little forced. She's still not a natural at this, but nonetheless a stronger candidate than last time around.

(We look forward to running a comparison between Republican Dino Rossi 2004 and 2008 - sorry, no name change in his case.)

The stump speech was basic - no very striking twists - but fully functional. Job one for an incumbent seeking re-election is to make the case that things are better than they were when the term began, or at least that the incumbent did the best they could. Gregoire addressed all that thoroughly. Unemployment was highest in the nation then, and much lower now, she argued; the job market is much improved; the state has won kudos for capable management; and so on. It's a case Rossi will necessarily attack, of course, but Gregoire is not neglecting her role in making it. Over-modesty will not be her undoing in this campaign. (Go ahead and laugh; but any number of incumbents over the years have neglected to make the case for themselves only to wonder why the voters didn't award them another term.)

Her references to Rossi - who she didn't mention by name, only by implication - were brief but sharp: He is "critical and fearmongering to the state of Washington . . . who in tough times cuts education, cuts public safety . . . indecisive and puts up their finger and asks how the political winds blow . . ." The lines of attack seem clearly mapped out as well.

This was, as noted, an early stop on Gregoire's bus tour around the state: "She’s traveling to 10 cities in four days on a biodiesel bus." The Vancouver event was located at a firefighters union hall, and drew a substantial labor contingent, along with what looked like most of the Democratic candidates and legislators from the area. If four years ago large sectors of the state seemed a little underserved by the Gregoire campaign, the sense was that won't be true this time around.

OR: Obama up by 10

There will be many more, but we do now have some early polling results on what the Obama-Clinton race looks like in Oregon. It isn't much of a surprise: The assumption here (as broadly elsewhere) has been that Barack Obama probably could count Oregon among his wins.

Of 597 likely voters: "In a Democratic Primary in Oregon today, 04/07/08, six weeks to the 05/20/08 primary, Barack Obama defeats Hillary Clinton 52% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV Portland. Obama leads by 30 points among men. Clinton leads by 7 among women. A 37-point Gender Gap. Clinton leads among voters age 65+. Obama leads among voters younger than 65. Among Oregon Democrats focused on the economy, the candidates tie. Obama leads among voters focused on Iraq. Clinton leads, ever so slightly, among voters focused on health care. Clinton trails by 8 in greater Portland, trails by 16 in the rest of Oregon."

It indicated just 3% undecided.

MORE THOUGHTS on this - especially on the Senate race numbers, noted in comments here too - at Daily Kos, including lots of comments.

Ellen Craswell

Ellen Craswell, who served 16 years in the Washington legislature and in 1996 ran for governor, got a chance to do something only but a few people do: She tested, on a statewide level, the proposition that her world view could win support statewide.

It didn't. In that test, the 1996 gubernatorial campaign, she took 42% of the vote to 58% for Democrat Gary Locke. Ever since, her race has stood as a kind of benchmark, and reasonably, because Craswell was totally straight-up about who she was and what she thought. Her message was unalloyed conservatism growing out of conservative Christian beliefs. (Gay rights, in her view, were "special rights for sodomites.") She did not try to soften or blur the message; it was what it was. And so were the voting results.

She was similarly clear and focused in the legislature, and her path there was hardly easier. Of her six general election results in legislative races, just two (in 1978 ad 1980) marked really strong wins; after that, she took 54% in 1984 (a strong Republican year), and 51.1% in 1988; she lost her last legislative race in 1992 (44.6%). Her message, finally, wasn't one most voters wanted to sign up with.

But there was never any doubt what it was.

She has maintained a lower profile since, but in a 2005 Seattle Times Magazine interview she said of politics, "We [her husband was highly active too] enjoyed it while we were in it, but now it's time for another generation to carry the torch. It's another season in our lives." She said she had no regrets; the interviewer described her as having "gracious serenity."

She died Saturday at Poulsbo.