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Posts published in “Day: January 18, 2007”

Early heats

January 18, 2007

So early to be doing this, but worthy as a taking of current temperature and maybe from a lookback perspective later: SurveyUSA's early polling on presidential matchups in several states, among them Washington and Oregon. (Idaho wasn't among them.)

Specifically, these are early matchups of Democratic Illinois Senator Barack Obama, who is forming an exploratory committee (which ordiarily means, he's running) with three top Republican candidates: Arizona Senator John McCain, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Of the six results (three matchups in two states), Obama wins three.

The Republican who beat Obama both in Washington 49%-45% and in Oregon 51%-41% was - surprise!, at least to us - Giuliani.

Obama-McCain was a split decision, with Obama barely taking Washington 47%-46%, and McCain prevailing in Oregon 51%-40%.

Obama scored blowouts against Romney, however: in Washington 56%-33%, and in Oregon 51%-35%.

None of the major candidates seem to have picked up a lot of public backing so far from major Northwest political figures. There's been some recent Oregon activity, though, between Senator Gordon Smith's backing of McCain and this week's announcement from the Romney campaign that three of the 16 members of his exploratory committee come from Oregon, and one of those is the state Republican chair, Vance Day.

ALSO The polls also included some approval numbers. From one of them:

bullet OREGON President George Bush 38%, Governor Ted Kulongoski 49%, Senator Ron Wyden 64%, Senator Gordon Smith 60% (an increase from earlier figures; could it reflect his Iraq speech?)

bullet WASHINGTON President George Bush 35%, Governor Chris Gregoire 51%, Senator Patty Murray 56%, Senator Maria Cantwell 61%.

Kinds of homeless

January 18, 2007

Homelesseness reportThe new report on homelessness from the National Alliance to End Homelessness has, as a number of regional news stories have indicated, state breakdowns on estimates of the homeless population.

All three Northwest states are reported to have high rates of homelessness. This has resulted in such stories as "Idaho ranks 6th in homelessness," but you get a better picture when you get into matters of definition.

State Sheltered Unsheltd Total % pop
Idaho 5,092 332 5,424 0.38%
Oregon 7,775 8,446 16,221 0.45%
Washington 14,450 9,520 23,970 0.38%

The homeless are not a monolith, certainly no more than any other group in our society, likely less than most. The report segments them in a variety of ways, among those "sheltered" as opposed to "unsheltered" - those living essentially or actually out in the open, sleeping on sidewalks or by river banks. Nationally, the report says that 56% are sheltered, 44% unsheltered.

Idaho's population is somewhat less than half Oregon's, which is barely over half of Washington's. All three states are estimated to have comparable numbers of homeless people. But in Idaho, very few - 6.1% - are living unsheltered, while in Oregon a majority are, and in Washington around 40%.

What accounts for that disparity? Climate differences could be part of it; survival would be easier outdoors in rough seasons west of the Cascades than elsewhere. Or are there other factors? Is there something about Portland, for example, architectural maybe, that makes it easier to live outside (plenty of bridges for some overhead shelter, lots of bus stops to sit down, and so on.) The study and recent news articles suggest the numbers of unsheltered homeless are not simply a factor of lack of available emergency shelter (though that may partially be the case). So what else might be done to reduce the numbers?

If you exclude the unsheltered and consider the sheltered homeless, Idaho's percentage ranked among the states shoots to near the top. Why would that be?

A notable report, for all the new questions it raises, here as elsewhere.