NORTHWEST ELECTION PREVIEW 2006

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State Senate 10

Senator Jackie Winters, R-Salem

Interim email: sen.jackiewinters@state.or.us
Website: http://www.leg.state.or.us/winters

District: Marion and Polk counties. Commonly described as a Salem district, the reality here is a little more subtle. It does include most of southern Salem, plus downtown and West Salem (the Polk County part). But it als includes a lot of rural territory that adds a significant component to the district's base: All of the Monmouth, Independence and Rickreall area (which takes in about 25,000 people) to the west, and the Turner and Aumsville areas to the southeast.

Background: If Salem as a whole can no longer be taken to be as Republican as it once was, this district – with an assist from the small-town pieces – still looks to be reliably Republican. But, as in the rest of Marion, not longer quite so dependably. Senator Jackie Winters is an engaging candidate and has been popular here, enough to run strongly for the Republican nomination for the U.S. House in 2004. (She won Marion County in that race while losing overall.) Still, she won in 2002 in this theoretically favorable district with a modest 54.5%. Republicans did win the House seats here in 2004, but again not by big numbers. And Winters and one of those Republicans, Vicki Berger, have come across as relatively moderate – possibly vulnerable to a primary challenge.

Bottom line: Continues to lean Republican, but should not be taken for granted. The margins have gotten slim, and the scenario is not hard to imagine: A strong primary challenge either defeats or weakens Winters, and a sufficiently strong Democrat could compete in the fall. Winters would continue as a strong general election candidate here and would be hard to defeat. But no one has filed here yet, and there's potential for heat in primary and general.

- Randy Stapilus