Never too soon

As this is written, opposition party candidates for governor have stirred and semi-announced for office in both Oregon and Washington, and jockeyng for position in the U.S. Senate race in Washingtonhas gotten underway. Seems not a bit too early to keep some tabs on developments in the three states.

While our primary focus, as always, is less on the personalities and candidates than on the on-ground development of politics and public affairs in the region, the two are ever connected. So we'll maintain our status report - which will be periodically updated as conditions change, which they will - here, and on the pages linked to this one.

Senate, and ...

Almost certainly the big political action in Washington in 2006 will be the race for the U.S. Senate. But that's not a certainty, for at least a couple of reasons. First, the level of incumbent strength Democrat Maria Cantwell will bring to bear is far from clear. She only barely won office in 2000, defeating Republican Slade Gorton in a contest that set the standard for close in the state (until, of course, last year). Cantwell has not been especially controversial, and she has carved out some popular niches for herself, notably the investigation into Enron abuses. But how might she stand up against, say, a Republican candidate who brought to the campaign table what Dino Rossi did in 2004? Neither polling nor other indicators are clear as yet.

The likelihood as matters stand is that Democrat Christine Gregoire will hold the office of governor for a four-year term, and that no new election for that office will be held in the interim. Such are the indicators, anyway, but the matter is not yet fully settled, and if a special election for the office is held in the meantime - and that might be either in late 2005 or 2006 - politics in Washington would take on a decidedly different dimension.

Elsewhere, no serious contests for the U.S. House seats are evident at this point, and the odds tentatively favor a state legislature changed little after the next election. But the margins remain close, and we'll keep watching.

U.S. Senate |

U.S. House 1
U.S. House 2
U.S. House 3
U.S. House 4
U.S. House 5
U.S. House 6
U.S. House 7
U.S. House 8
U.S. House 9

State Senate

State House

Quietude

Oregon will have a contest for governor in 2006, but what kind of contest will it be?

Indicators so far are that Governor Ted Kulongoski is in good shape for re-election. His personality may be low key, but it wears well, and a growing number of Republicans, some of them quite conservative, count themselves among his fans. His long years of experience in the trenches of Oregon politics seem to have paid off, and he may benefit from the same kind of middle-ground feel that Washington Governor Gary Locke took to the electoral bank so many years. He will of course be contested, and three Republicans are semi-announced to run against him. Early on, their odds do not look good.

Elsewhere, there is no U.S. Senate contest, and the best-effort tries at ousting the two most vulnerable incumbents in 2004 fell dramatically short; there may be less interest this time in trying that again. The state legislature may be a focus of interest, though. The incumbency numbers that helped Democrats to Senate control in 2004 will reverse in 2006, and the numbers will look better to Republicans; Democrats will have to scramble to stay in charge. In the House, on the other hand, Democrats are only an inch shy of control now, and Republicans will have to work hard to keep that chamber.

Governor race |

U.S. House 1
U.S. House 2
U.S. House 3
U.S. House 4
U.S. House 5

State Senate 3 | State Senate 4 | State Senate 6 | State Senate 7 |
State Senate 8 | State Senate 10 | State Senate 11 | State Senate 13 |
State Senate 15 | State Senate 16 | State Senate 17 | State Senate 19 |
State Senate 20 | State Senate 24 | State Senate 26 |

State House

The next Republican

There are a couple of issues in Idaho politics in 2006, but they do not have to do with partisan control: The odds against Republican wins for just about anything important are microscopic. But the primary does look interesting in one case, and could possibly be in another.

The wide-open field is in the race for the 1st District U.S. House seat, at this point the only likely open House seat in the region, as Republican C.L. "Butch" Otter, who could have re-election for the asking, opts out to run for governor. When the seat last was open, in 2000, Otter was the whale in the race, the man to beat, after his 14 years as lieutenant governor. This time, so far at least, there is no whale, though a bunch of people are talking about running.

The possibly interesting contest could be that for governor, where Otter isthe presumptive favorite, but a wild card is in the mix: Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch. In a conventional matchup, the odds seem to strongly favor Otter. But as incumbent Governor Dirk Kempthorne ponders life after the Statehouse, he may consider the option of leaving early. If Risch were running as an incumbent governor, a series of recalculations would be in order, and Otter would no longer be a presumptive favorite.

Not much else looks to be in play in 2006. The partisan numbers in the legislature are unlikely to change much. One prospect: The possible retirement of the one Democratic stateside office holder, Superintendent of Public Instruction Marilyn Howard. She might be hard pressed to keep the seat (depending on who the Republicans nominate) even if she runs again; but if she does not, that office likely will go to the Republicans.

U.S. House 1
U.S. House 2

Governor

Lieutenant Governor

- Randy Stapilus