Press "Enter" to skip to content

Posts tagged as “Greg Walden”

Second string on deck

We've suspected for a while that the top-tier Republican possibilities for governor, former Senator Gordon Smith and current Representative Greg Walden, wouldn't go for it.

From an Oregonian story on the Republican Dorchester Conference, held this weekend at Seaside, come growing indications that seems about right.

About Smith, close associate Dan Lavey is quoted, "He's focused on the future, but the future has more to do with pea picking and the law firm than it does with politics." That sounds pretty clear.

And the story says, "Walden says the seniority he's built up in Congress and the lopsided voter registration edge Democrats hold over Republicans give him pause as he looks at a run for governor. He says he won't decide right away." You don't have to parse that too hard to get the drift.

No real specific indications from the Dorchester - this said from a distance, but with such information as is available - of active efforts as yet underway for GOP candidates for governor. Our best guess, for the moment, remains state Senator Jason Atkinson, R-Central Point. But the field is looking fairly open.

Alley’s space

Allen Alley

Allen Alley

The initial up-front question, in looking at businessman Allen Alley's entry into the 2010 Oregon gubernatorial field, is - how does he expect to win the Republican primary?

It wasn't hard when he ran last year for state treasurer; he was the only Republican who filed for the job. In the general, he did respectably (45.2% to Democrat Ben Westlund's 51.1%), but one reason was that his campaign ramped up unexpectedly at the end, taking the Democrats by somewhat by surprise. Nothing wrong with that strategy, but it likely wouldn't do as well in a higher profile governor's race. Alley did, as well, come across as an energetic candidate.

The primary issue comes up because Alley doesn't seem to have a large, easily definable constituency within the Republican voting base, or a really strong organization. It's hard to imagine him staying in the race should former Senator Gordon Smith or Representative Greg Walden enter (as we're guessing they won't, but which they could). The best guess here for a Republican gubernatorial nominee next year - assuming he runs - would be state Senator Jason Atkinson, who has a strong and enthusiastic support base, and has developed very strong campaign skills; he may have been the best natural campaigner for the governorship in 2006 in Oregon.

But who knows, yet, who will or won't enter - on either side? Alley's entry is demonstration of just that unpredictability.