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On Sali ’08

Those following the political track of Idaho 1st District Representative Bill Sali may want to take note of a Congressional Quarterly piece appearing today, centering on an interview with a man planning to try to take him out next election.

Rand Lewis
Rand Lewis

That would be Rand Lewis, a retired Army colonel who lives at Moscow who appears to be leaving no doubt he plans to run, as a Democrat. (This is not entirely new; his name was floated around the blogosphere floated in 2006.) He says that Larry Grant, who lost to Sali last year 50%-45%, plans to run as well, though Grant has not said so publicly.

Lewis is talking about the need to prepare and fund-raise early, and that's no doubt true. In this district which has chosen Republicans for the U.S. House in every election there since 1966 (save two), Sali starts the 2008 run with a distinct advantage. And it may as well be said now too: To this point, he's done nothing since taking office in Washington that seems likely to hurt him politically back in the district, and at least some of what he's done seems likely to improve his standing. Anyone thinking him an easy target in 2008 will need to do a rethink.

Notes: Link to CQ article revised; blogosphere link noted from 2006.

Opposition options

Two recent opinion pieces about this year's legislative session, and its new House leadership, merit attention. They take off from two entirely different angles; and their implicit suggestions are quite different.

One is by Dennis Mansfield, the conservative Republican activist in Idaho, is currently touring around Israel, and has been blogging about it (interesting stuff too), but before he left he delivered a provocative Idaho political post.

It takes off from a March 18 article in the Idaho Statesman about how this has been a session of discontent for the dwindling number of moderate Republicans in the Idaho House, and about how several of the members (moderates among them) who supported the losing candidate for House speaker have had rough sledding in the House this year. At one point in it, House Democratic Leader Wendy Jaquet is quoted as saying, “I feel sorry for the moderates in the majority party of the House that they’re having to vote the way they don’t want to . . . At some point, the folks that are moderates are going to have to stand up and say, ‘We won’t support that.’ ”

Mansfield has an alternative suggestion:

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The Oregon trail

Noted here for calendar purposes (and via the Oregon Democrats site) a string of Democratic presidential types and campaigns are headed to Oregon in near future. So noted:

bullet The Barack Obama campaign is doing a mass of home events, and Oregon has a slew of them; Washington a large number as well, and smaller number in Idaho. They're scheduled variously on Saturday, but generally aim at taking advantage of a webcast planned for that time.

bullet Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards has slated an Oregon trip for May 2, though without indication so far of exactly where that will be.

bullet Ohio Representative Dennis Kucinich, who spent so much time in Oregon in 2004 (a month or more, getting good press though few votes), plans an April 2 visit to Eugene and Corvallis.

bullet Former President Bill Clinton (with a hand in the current campaign) has a speech set for April 17 at the World Affairs Council of Oregon International Speakers Series in Portland.

Chat . . . next week

One of those schedule conflicts deals has arisen . . . with the result that our regular Wednesday night chat is off this week. We'll return for another next Wednesday.

Meanwhile, of course, posts continue . . .

Work patterns

Lonnie Roberts
Lonnie Roberts

If you hang round government long enough, you'll see cases like this: The elected official who got there and stays there because he's liked, but not because he does much work. In relatively fortunate cases (like this one), there's at least an energetic staff that helps make up for it. But still . . . these are guys not really earning their keep.

Cases like that often become local political lore and not much beyond, because they reflect patterns of behavior that can be hard to document. Except that in this cases, the Oregonian's Arthur Gregg Sulzberger did just that in the case of Multnomah County Commissioner Lonnie Roberts.

Sulzberger's story begins: "When Lonnie Roberts shows up to work -- after a 7 a.m. wake-up call from his top aide -- he plays computer solitaire, listens to conservative talk radio and banters with staff. But Roberts, who earns $80,000 a year as a Multnomah County commissioner, doesn't even set foot in his office on nearly half of work days, records show. One door down, [his chief of staff] Gary Walker, who arrives each morning about 6 a.m., reads Roberts' e-mails, returns his phone calls, writes his speeches, deals with other commissioners and pushes pet projects forward."

And so it goes on, interspersed with occasional and pathetic-sounding defenses from Roberts. (An on-line report is headed, "Powerful chief of staff pulls county commissioner's dead weight.") But which does help explain the recent and controversial $35,000 bonus Roberts recently awarded to Walker.

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Stopping Teton growth

Teton County
Teton County density (red, orange, yellow high density)

Little Teton County, one of Idaho's smaller both geographically and in population, is about to teach itself some lessons about growth. And we'll all be interested to find out what those lessons are.

The county may be small but, owing to its location a few miles from fast-growing Jackson, Wyoming, it has been growing, as fast as more celebrated parts of the state. That growth has been causing increasing pressures, to the point that the county lost (by resignation) its third deputy planner in three years, a result of overwork - a doubling of work load in the last year. Two of the county's commissioners, Alice Stevenson and Larry Young, responded to that and other pressures by proposing a sweeping six-month moratorium on growth in the county.

They and the third commissioner, Mark Trupp, who opposes the moratorium, held a hearing on it Monday night. The hearing drew about 100 people (a big crowd for Driggs) was so intense it went on until 2 a.m. today, finally resulting in a 2-1 passage of the proposal.

Opinions are bitterly divided over it. One news post commenter who was there remarked, "The discussion was fired up- definitely some very pragmatic and concerned new comers were pitted against some of the most pissed off ranchers I’ve ever seen. A few ranchers got up and flat out threatened the commissioners for bankrupting their family and trashing their retirement(overstated!). One old timer’s sale tanked as a result of the proposal. He was angry. It’s a well intentioned issue and development in Idaho is definitely disfunctional, but the way it was handled is pretty backwards."

Next up, apparently, is a recall effort against Stevenson and Young.

Tibbs v. Bieter

Jim Tibbs
Jim Tibbs

The battle for mayor of Boise is joined today: Council member Jim Tibbs is in the race to try to take out incumbent Mayor David Bieter. (He is preparing to announce as this is posted.)

Tibbs is a serious candidate with real political assets to bring to the table. He won a city council seat two years ago, showing some political capability and support. He has a significant base of personal support. And a lot of all that grew out of his community roots, decades serving on the city police force (quite visibly, in the later years), and his and his wife's other varied community activities.

He might win; but we think (and we know this will draw rebuttals) his remains an uphill attempt.

Incumbency is a hard thing to beat, and incumbents ordinarily lose only when some sweeping move or series of bad mistakes work against them. Neither seems to be the case with Bieter. The political mood of the city seems to be moving more in his direction than otherwise; and while we won't argue he's run a perfect city hall, we get no sense that Boiseans have a compelling reason to fire him - which is what you usually need to oust an incumbent.

For his part, Tibbs' statement on his web site is all positive and about himself. It makes a plausible case for Tibbs as mayor, highlighting his depth of background locally and his range of experience. But there's no indication of why the incumbent needs to be fired, and that's almost always a prerequisite for defeating an incumbent.

Of course, the race can take on new colors as it goes on. (And there's no guarantee the race will be limited to these two.) It'll be worth a watch, and it may have something to say about where Boise is headed in the next few years.

UPDATE Idaho Statesman editorial page editor Kevin Richert links to this post on his blog: "Northwest political writer Randy Stapilus offers a good early take on a Bieter-Tibbs race, making a good argument for why Tibbs faces an uphill struggle. I agree with Stapilus: the burden of proof is on the challenger to make the case to fire the incumbent, and that's the essence of what Tibbs will have to do. I'd add one more proviso: I think Boise's politics are evolving more to the left, and this favors Bieter, who served in the Legislatuire as a Democrat. Bieter is always the first guy to point out that city races are nonpartisan — and they are. But those voters who swung last fall to elect five Boise Democrats to the House are likely Bieter voters."

We'd agree with that last point (and would note that we've made it ourselves on earlier occasions).

Will Gonzales envelope Rossi?

By way of David Postman's blog, some blogosphere speculation is arising that the firestorm around Attorney General Alberto Gonzales could do some long-range damage to gubernatorial prospects for Republican Dino Rossi.

During the endless aftermath of the 2004 Washington gubernatorial election, the time of the count and the recount and the re-recount, no one on the Republican side was more doggedly energetic than Sound Politics writer Stefan Sharkansky in pursuing theories of election counting malfeasance. His posts hit the point over and over, and he was an activist on the subject as well. Probably at least as much as anyone on radio or in the party structure, he kept pushing the idea that something was seriously wrong in the King County elections office.

So how does that tie in to Gonzales and Rossi?

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Bad numbers

We'll start by suggesting not only the "appropriate grain of salt," but also a real-world reality filter: We're talking here about a partisan poll measuring something that seems unlikely to ever happen.

Okay? It still may be worth some consideration, at least to chew over, as what we think is the first head to head (sort of) for the next Senate race in Oregon.

This concerns a poll conducted last month by Rove Insight for the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, aimed at Oregon Republican Senator Gordon Smith. (Information about it has begun popping around the web; the most detailed posting we've seen on it was the post at Daily Kos.) The question asked was, "If the November 4th, 2008 general election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were: Peter DeFazio, Democrat or Gordon Smith, Republican, for whom would you vote or are you undecided?"

The results: Smith 38%, DeFazio 42%.

It also did a right track-wrong track measure, with wrong track prevailing 61%-27%.

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