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Posts published in “Oregon”

U.S. House vulnerabilities?

The opening piece of analysis from this site about the 2004 U.S. House races in the Northwest is a default to status quo. Even the one House seat we know will be open (the Idaho 1st) probably will stay with its current party. For every other House seat in the Northwest, barring unexpected retirements or something else out of the blue, the larger probability is that the incumbent will be returned in 2006 for another term.

Probable but not a lock, of couse - these things never are a lock until election day, and sometimes even then. Still, you have to look hard for many chinks in the armor. Probably only two members of the House delegation are representing districts whose partisan leanings are just a bit at odds with the incumbent's situation. And neither of those - Republican Dave Reichert in the Washington 8th, and Peter DeFazio in Oregon's 4th - look weak. Both won decisively in 2004.

Analysts over at the Democratic Daily Kos site, however, do list a few Northwest seats - three altogether, those two and one more - on their roster to watch, of potentially vulnerable Republican and Democratic seats. (more…)

Sad cases

These two cases of Oregon state representatives, Democrat Kelly Wirth and Republican Dan Doyle, are more than instances of private failure: Both dragged over into the public sphere. That does not make them less sad. But it mens the rest of us have an understandable stake.

Dan DoyleDoyle was the legislator who started the year at a political high - as the top House budget writer, one of the most influential people in the state - and will end it in prison, serving a 10-month term. He resigned from the Oregon House on January 31.

His offense was lying on his campaign finance reports, hiding the way he shifted money from campaign coffers to cover his personal expenses. His may have been the first case ever of an Oregon legislator serving time for a campaign offense.

Kelly WirthWirth's case, still in process, is more complex, but suggests no less moral culpablity. During a police inquiry of an assault against her - the background of which is still murky - a small amount of methamphetimine was found in her vehicle; she then resigned effective October 15. One could consider the matter serious legally but semi-private in nature up to that point. But then came reports about Wirth drastically increasing pay for some of her aides - most notably her mother, a woman now receiving about $6,000 a month, who according to news reports seldom was seem in Wirth's statehouse office.

The question: What effect do these cases have on public affairs and politics in Oregon? (more…)

The state of abortion

There's no huge shock, but some food for thought, in the latest Survey USA state-by-state poll on abortion.

The question asked was whether the respondent considered himself or herself "pro-life" or "pro-choice." There are loads of objections to this approach, not least that attitudes on abortion in this country tend to be far more nuanced than that. But the effort to deliver a clean dividing line as a tool for political analysis.

Natonwide, SUSA said, 38% call themselves "pro-life," and 56% "pro-choice." In ranking the states, in just 13 states did the "pro-life" percentage outnumber "pro-choice." Utah came in first, which is no surprise.

Idaho was fourth, decisively so, 55% pro-life, 41% pro-choice. So decisive a pro-life lead is a little surprising, since the issue has not been a decisive winner at the polls. The last time it was a truly driving issue was in 1990, when the Idaho Legislature passed what would have been the strongest anti-abortion legislation in the country, only to see itself rebuked first by Governor Cecil Andrus' veto and then by Idaho voters, who gave the state's Democrats a sohrt moment of sunshine before the Republican lock set in two years later.

But - on the other hand - that was 15 years ago, and Idaho has changed a lot since. Has it become so much more socially conservative that the legislature's action, rejected in 1990, would be decisively upheld today? Maybe so.

Oregon and Washington scored almost identically in the SUSA survey, with 33% and 32% respectively calling themselves "pro-life," and 62% and 63% respectively self-described "pro-choice." Makes clear why the issue doesn't often come up in these states as a wedge; it wouldn't work very well.

In Tuesday's balloting, California voters rejected a proposal to require parental notification for abortion for a minor. (California's numbers: 28% pro-life, 65% pro-choice.) There has been talk about putting such an issue on the Oregon ballot in 2006. One suspects that after a review of the California results, and of polling information, that idea may go by the boards.

Missoula to Corvallis

Newspaper alert: The editor of the Missoula Missoulian newspaper has been transferred, within Lee Enterprises, to the chain's daily in Corvallis, the Gazette-Times, as its publisher.

Corvallis Gazette-Times logoThis constitutes a promotion, but it must be tough for the transferee, Mike McInally, who has spent decades in Montana and has been deeply invested in that state. The change may be of use to Corvallis, though; the Missoulian has (and has had for quite a few years) a good reputation, better in general than the daily in Corvallis.

Snow!

This time last year Northwesterns were remarking on the dry autumn and the slow start to the snowpack. We lucked out then; the snowpack grew somewhat later in the season. But that was indeed getting lucky.

ODOT Siskiyou PassWe're off to a better start this season, although drivers are having to struggle. Siskiyou pass on the Oregon-California line has turned snowy and is turning icy; it may be a difficult drive the next few days. And until earlier today, Snoqualmie Pass in the Cascades east of Seattle was no pass at all - closed completely owing to a rockslide combined with heavy snowfall. Even now, only one lane each way is open, and it may stay that way for a while.

Still, as the saying goes, we need the water. Or certainly will next summer.

Falling papers

Dark days for newspapers have been here so long it's hard to remember when they were a growing, thriving medium. When was that? A century ago, when most mid-sized to large communities still had two or three? A half-century ago, when all but a few communities were monopoly markets but the papers still had strong penetration into their communities?

Circulation reports for daily newspapers, according to the new FAS-FAX reports, are down almost everywhere, large papers and small alike.
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