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Posts published in “Oregon column”

In Curry

8. Pistol River Beach 2011

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RANDY STAPILUS / Oregon

The big result in the limited elections in Oregon on Tuesday - there weren't many of major consequence - came in the far southwest corner of the state, in Curry County.

Curry can too easily be forgotten in the rest of the state, located well away from any metro centers, out on a lightly-populated reach of the coast. Most of its people are more than an hour from the largest city, Coos Bay (which is not exactly enormous) and over a mountain range from the Medford and Grants Pass area. Curry has more or less had to manage its own affairs.

For quite a while it did that without much difficulty. A formula developed. Declines in the timber industry were countered for a time with federal payments, and other elements of the economy could draw from the rising number of seniors who had sold more expensive homes elsewhere and moved to live in Brookings or Gold Beach. Then the federal money dwindled and the seniors who had insistently kept the county's property tax rate second-lowest in the state (a quarter of that in many other counties) were simply resisting an increase. Period. Even if the county government shut down.

The seniors really do seem to be the key. A ballot issue on whether to build a new hospital did pass - that one seemed to catch senior attention. But a three-year operating levy to help support a local law enforcement structure that's become as much theory as fact was opposed by close to 60% of the voters.

They may get their tax increase anyway, courtesy of a new state law that, under such circumstances, allows the governor and the county commission to unilaterally impose taxes needed to pay for basic county services - taxes Curry isn't raising at present.

It would be a rough vote for those commissioners, and it would take some real fortitude. This would be a true case of voting against the will of the electorate. They've also been left with little choice if they want to protect the basic safety of their constituents, who seem less than concerned about it.

Some real drama is on the way in Curry County.

Among the accumulants

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RANDY STAPILUS / Oregon

Not long ago the talk here was that hardly any names had surfaced – other than the incumbent's – for the 2014 U.S. Senate contest in Oregon. That incumbent, Democrat Jeff Merkley, is widely assumed to be planning a re-election campaign, though he hasn't formally announced.

Considering that Senate seat was held before Merkley's election in 2008 by Republicans (actually, two Republicans) going back to 1966, you might think on the surface that plenty of prominent names would rise up to run. Hasn't been the case.

There were no such contenders at all on the Republican side until mid-august, when Albany financial planner (and a former Republican chair in Linn county) Jo Rae Perkins said on Facebook that she plannned to run. Maybe that was a signal that experience getting elected to, well, anything, wasn't needed to run for the U.S. Senate. A neurosurgeon from Portland, Monica Wehby, sais she would enter too, last week. On October 7 a businessman from Bend named Sam Carpenter said he too may run.

There is, among the various prospects, one with actual elective experience who appears likely to announce soon, he being Republican state Representative Jason Conger of Bend. He is planning a series of announcements on October 15, at Bend and Oregon City, the sort of setup that usually indicates an actual announcement for major office. (It did for Merkley six years ago.)

Conger, who actually is an experienced candidate and has done such things as raise money, would seem to be the likely frontrunner among the Republicans at this point. His history doesn't suggest any special obstacles (or unusual advantages either) for the race. As he is no doubt aware, of course, he's running in an uphill situation, in a state which has been moving in a gentle but clear pattern favoring blue rather than red candidates.

But he may want to take care. If the gaggle of Republican candidates stays in, and some others of them get more attention – maybe not the helpful kind – than Conger gets, his nomination may not be assured. And if that attention is really not good, it could do his nomination some damage even assuming he gets it.

Table-clearing

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RANDY STAPILUS / Oregon

UPDATE: Reflecting on the difference between Congress and the Oregon Legislature - well, it's night and day. As for the Oregon Legislature, Governor John Kitzhaber said, "This is what working government and leadership look like, with people from across the state finding balanced solutions to real problems." Washington could learn from Salem. ...

Only a couple of days ago, this Oregon near-miracle was widely described as falling apart: A grand bargain including ideas (tax law changes) Democrats wanted, others (PERS adjustments substantially beyond last session's) sought by Republicans, and other pieces not terribly popular anywhere. Pieces in all, though, much sought after by many.

It was the great white whale of the regular legislation session this year. For months, legislative leaders met with Governor John Kitzhaber, who had proposed something resembling (though not exactly the same as) this in his state of the state address, and it was a revolving exercise in frustration. Repeatedly, the details of a deal that would collect enough votes in both chamber seemed to be just about there; just as repeatedly, it kept falling short.

Kitzhaber did not give up, however, and took his case for a grand bargain on state finances around the state, and into ongoing legislative negotiations. Calling the session was no done deal, and even after it was called reports kept leaking out that it might fall short enough votes, Last weekend, after initial hearings on the pieces (on "legislative concepts") things seemed about to fall apart again.

That they did not this time is remarkable, and it may have some significant political effects down the road.

One involves Kitzhaber, who was the favorite for a fourth term - if he wants it - from the beginning. But success on this special session was thought likely to be a nudge toward another term, and could make him all but impregnable. This PERS/tax deal is - recognizing that the work on taxes and retirement isn't done yet - something sought after for more than a decade, and many people had wondered if it was even possible. Turns out it is. Kitzhaber's third term has been an astonishingly productive gubernatorial term, and the reality of that should not be a hard sell.

Linked to that are two other elements: The removal from the table, as hot political issues, two matters which looked to be big deals on the legislative stump.

Those are the PERS structuring and tax increases that afford more money to the public schools. Republicans were set to go to war on the first, and Democrats on the second. This special session does not remove those topics from discussion, but it takes the heat, and the air, out of them. PERS now has been substantially revised, not as much as many Republicans would like but probably to a point most Oregonians overall would find reasonable. Similarly, attempts to raise taxes on the Democratic side should at least be paused; the largest needs (if not, to be sure, all of them) now are addressed.

Oregon is a politically different place than it was a couple of days ago. And 2014 is likely to be different, too, as a result.

Perspective in the woods

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RANDY STAPILUS / Oregon

Roseburg, Oregon, called by one Ridenbaugh Press writer (who lives there) “our little village in the woods,” would seem to be an unlikely locus for a regional financial powerhouse.

And yet here we are. Umpqua Bank, which (surely with some amusement) calls its “The World's Greatest Bank,” is becoming one of the Northwest's largest. It already is the largest bank based in Oregon, and with the acquisition of Sterling Bank of Spokane is poised to become the largest or second-largest locally-owned bank in the Northwest.

It may do well to remember how it got there.

If it sloganeers its greatness, it seems to have remembered in recent years that it stayed standing, and prospered, while others faltered, in large part because it stuck to the knitting. By many accounts, including a number of regional best-of lists, it is widely considered one of the best places to bank and even one of the best places to work. (A note: We have no connection to Umpqua.)

Umpqua has grown steadily over the years, and now seems to be taking major leaps. It recently opened a store in downtown San Francisco – was that a purely business-based decision or was there some ego in it? – and now prepares to absorb Sterling, which has many branches, many in small towns, around the Northwest. The combination will include some but not massive overlap; the end result will great extend Umpqua's reach.

Already a substantial regional player, it is about to get much bigger and move onto a new level. Now a new challenge will emerge: Will it be able to hand on to the positive qualities that got it to this point? It's a point at which many businesses stumble.

Perhaps Umpqua can learn from their lessons. It can be calm and contemplative in Roseburg.

Complexity in the resignation

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RANDY STAPILUS / Oregon

There's something about Multnomah County's process of replacing members of its commission that, it would seem, could use some work.

The county's top office holder is its commission chair, a position specifically elected by the public and not chosen from among the commission members or rotated around. (In that, there's some similarity with Portland's mayoral job.) But what happens when that person leaves?
For most elective positions, the idea would be that other elective office holders would make the decision about filling it until the voters do. In many instances, in many states, governors do a lot of that sort of thing, and Oregon does it in some cases (most often, judges). But not in this case.

In the case of Jeff Cogen, the chair leaving under heavily embattled conditions (people in Portland know about the infamous affair with a county employee), the replacement will be – his chief of staff, a person unknown to most people in the county and not named by anyone external.

Then the job will be filled in two steps. An elected replacement will be picked after the primary election next May (yes, that's the better part of a year away). But that will be for a temporary term. Coinciding with that, campaigns and elections will go on to fill the job for a regular four-year term; the election to settle that will be held in November 2014. So there could be four county chairs (starting with Cogen) over the next year and four months.

You'd think there'd be a more logical system than this. But then, Portland Multnomah County do like their peculiar systems in governmental organization.

Radio silence

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RANDY STAPILUS / Oregon

You can get the point behind the decision by the Eugene Police to quit running their radio transmissions over open air, available to all – including, of course, available to the transgressors they're trying to catch.

Presumably, though, you would think there are ways around the real issues without going totally silent.

There are legitimate concerns. Cops would understandably not want to broadcast (literally) their moves when they're trying to accomplish something by stealth. Private information, including such data as Social Security numbers, sometimes go out over those signals, as well as the names of people who may be guilty of nothing but become involved in something the police are doing.

And the Eugene Police apparently are providing a mechanism for news organizations to continue to track their signals.

Still. Putting aside the hobbyists, the people who simply enjoy being plugged in to whatever the police do, there are other reasons for allowing open air here. Foremost among them is allowing the public to keep tabs on their employees, employees who are given license to use force and violence on occasion. (That's one reason among others why the growth in police video has some real merit.) What are these enforcers doing out there? Tune in and you can find out.

It may make a difference too for the officers themselves. People tend to act a little differently when they know they're, as it were, on stage.

This circle should be squarable. There ought to be ways to allow much of the transmission to go public – surely most of it can be heard any anyone with no harm done – and then encrypt whenever there's good reason to do that.

Technology should allow this to be not entirely an either-or situation.

How not to win them over

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It was an expression of attitude, sure. A clear expression, and one in keeping with many active parts of the base. It was intended to raise money, and it evidently has.

But it showed too the tone-deafness that offers one reason Oregon Republicans aren't doing better. It's an automatic Facebook post and direct mail people for anyone not part of the gun advocacy crowd, which in Oregon includes a whole lot of swing voters.

 

gun raffle

 

The Multnomah County Republican Party is holding an auction: "AR-15 Raffle! Get Your Tickets NOW! The MCRP is raffling off a DPMS AR-15 - $10 per ticket or 12 for $100. Maximum tickets sold is 500. This is the PERFECT gift to slip into a father's day card!"

A KATU-TV news story about it quoted Jeff Reynolds, the county chair, as saying, "It's been very popular. To be frank, we could not make as much money with a TV as we could with an AR-15." Significant parts of the base, he suggested, are worried their guns may be taken away.

He's probaby right about all that.

Some miles to the south in Salem, Republican legislators have been stepping rather more carefully, in general, sticking to their ideas (and, generally, their base) while making the case for their points to others, especially people in the middle. They get some backing from the middle on PERS (the very costly Oregon public employee system), some traction in places on taxes and fees. Their recognizing that control of both chambers, now in Democratic hands, is very nearly on the bubble, and a modest breeze could give them control in 2014. (The Democrats seem, uneasily, to understand that too.)

But while the legislators move with some caution, other local party people seem not to.

Word of the raffle of an AR-15 - the same kind of weapon unleashed to deadly effect by a suicidal gunman at Clackamas Mall last winter - will appall people in Portland and the rest of Multnommah County. Okay, that's overwhelmingly Democratic to begin with. But it's not likely to play well either in the swing counties, notably very swingy Clackamas, where Republicans can easily get tagged as the gun nut party.

This wasn't a brilliant media maneuver by Oregon Democrats. This was a gift to them.