Press "Enter" to skip to content

Posts published in “Oregon column”

Oregon’s drought ahead

On March 26, Gov. Tina Kotek declared a drought emergency in Deschutes, Umatilla and Baker counties at the request of county governments. Call that the first drop of what may soon be a flood of drought-related actions.

This may be the most challenging large-scale drought year Oregon has seen in decades.

Kotek’s executive order hinted at that. It also said “forecasts suggest that below normal precipitation and streamflow conditions are likely to continue through summer in all counties following an extended period with precipitation and temperature conditions that contributed to well below normal snowpack.”

The deliberate language may understate the situation given what’s developed in recent months. And that’s without considering Wallowa and Jefferson counties, which didn’t make the emergency cut for Kotek’s recent order but may before long.

For all that Oregon has a reputation as water-soaked, most of it is arid. Even most of the western region is less moist than many people believe, and water supply has trended to the low side for some years. This year something close to a perfect non-storm hit: Light precipitation plus unseasonably warm weather (such as now, as this is written). Much of Oregon got little or no snow last winter, in places where at least some snowfall is or has been more the norm.

Unseasonal warmth probably has been the bigger factor. Across nearly all of Oregon, since the current “water year” (as marked by federal agencies) started Oct. 1, precipitation mainly as rainfall across nearly all the state has been between between 70% and 90% of normal, meaning compared to the measurements from 1991 to 2020. (Two areas, the Hood-Sandy-Lower Deschutes and the Umatilla-Walla Walla, are slightly higher.) You can see all of this mapped on a federal Oregon snow survey web page.

The federal website drought.gov reported a month ago “Stations in the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington are reporting the greatest snowpack deficits in the West. Some states, such as California, are already experiencing an early melt out of snow.”

And it said, “Every major river basin in the West experienced its first or second warmest winter (December, January and February) on record. The Great Basin, Rio Grande, Arkansas-White-Red, and Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins experienced their warmest winter on record, while the Missouri and Columbia River Basins recorded their second warmest.”

If that were being stored in snowpack in the mountain ranges, which is what normally happens, that wouldn’t be a great problem.

But the “snow water equivalent” map from the National Resources Conservation Service shows Oregon’s basins (excepting the coast, which isn’t counted the same way) are in hot red coloring — extremely low snow water percentages. Those numbers run as low as 0% in the John Day and the Malheur areas, but are down to 9% even in the Willamette.

As Larry O’Neill, Oregon’s state climatologist, told the Oregon Capital Chronicle, “It’s a very worrying trend. Because it was so warm, our snowpack just really failed to build. Snowpack functionally acts as a reservoir for water. Basically, our largest reservoir of water is nearly empty at this point in time.”

Here’s a comparison: Go back to April 2025, and you’ll see Oregon basins almost all bathed in blue, with nearly all percentages well above 100%.

Oregon hasn’t looked nearly this dry, headed into spring and summer, since 2015, and even that wasn’t quite as bad as our current readings. (The maps suggest Oregon’s drought may be on a level — adjusted for normal precipitation — with Nevada and Arizona.) That year, more than two-thirds of Oregon’s counties had drought declarations.

In the years since then, only 2022 has come close for dryness.

Put another way, if you’re hearing that this looks like a drought year, think of conditions likely to affect you personally. If you’re a farmer depending on irrigation, of course, the situation is much more extreme. Wildfires become higher risk in drought times too.

So what can be done?

Drought declarations by the governor — and you can expect to see many more before the year is out — can help with access to some government programs and speeding reviews and funding, but they can do only so much. Conservation measures probably should get underway now.

Maybe the best thing we can do is use this year as an object lesson in what to prepare for, because the trend lines suggest we’re going to be seeing more of this, not less.

This column first appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

 

Time to talk UGBs

Sooner or later, the Oregon Legislature will have to face up to redesigning a state creation that now looks like two icebergs on a collision course.

One iceberg is the wildly high cost of housing along with other living costs including electric power and water; the other, the need to grow the state’s economy and shore up its softening base in the technology sector.

The locus for this conflict: Urban growth boundaries.

UGBs are one of those Oregon peculiarities, dating from the Tom McCall era and the 1973 enactment of Senate Bill 100, which framed the state’s land use system. Under its terms, urban areas in the state have to periodically estimate their needed growth for the coming 20 years and draw growth boundaries outside of city limits. The process is overseen by the Land Conservation and Development Commission.

The Oregon Encyclopedia says that generally, “Housing tracts, shopping malls, and other kinds of urban development are not allowed to sprawl past that boundary, while agricultural lands and open space outside a UGB are preserved.” The idea was partly to preserve open and farm spaces and partly to curb suburban sprawl, encouraging compact development to reduce infrastructure and other costs.

They have succeeded to a great degree, but bugs have begun to multiply in the system. Some of those were hinted at in one national study noting that critics say UGBs “can stifle economic growth and development within the designated areas. Restricting the amount of land available for businesses and industries to expand can limit job growth and economic opportunities.”

Hillsboro, in central Washington County, offers the best current case study.

That city has been growing as tech businesses like (most notably) Intel have sometimes expanded and more recently struggled. Hillsboro also has become a major center, even from a national perspective, for large data centers; as many as 20 are located in the area. These are heavy consumers of resources like electricity and water. Available space for ongoing expansion within the UGB has been limited.

The process for expanding a UGB is complex and difficult, and requires demonstration of a need for growth and evidence it can’t be met within existing limits. Cities are supposed to review them every five years. But the DLCD reports that “Since 2016, when the Land Conservation and Development Commission adopted revised rules regarding urban growth boundary expansions, cities and counties in Oregon have successfully approved 46?expansions or adjustments to their urban growth boundaries.” That’s not a lot.

One academic study suggested UGBs began to have a “binding impact” on growth starting in the 1990s.

Hillsboro Mayor Beach Pace and area legislators in recent years have pressed what was called the Oregon Jobs Act, sponsored by Senator Janeen Sollman of Hillsboro, which sought to expand local growth areas by about 1,700 acres, to allow for industrial growth. But opposition became so fierce the measure died in the legislature this session. Much of that pushback focused on data centers and other developments; one report even highlighted a “spider’s web” of links between corporate and local government officials.

Nellie McAdams, executive director of Oregon Agricultural Trust, opined Sollman “heard loud and clear not only from her constituents but from people all over the state that we’re not interested in poorly planned economic development that doesn’t result in jobs and destroys farmland.”

UGBs, then, have become a brake point for many Oregonians concerned about data centers. But limitations on them have other impacts as well.

One study of UGBs said a key criticism was that they “can lead to increased housing costs within the boundary area. By restricting the amount of land available for development, the law of supply and demand can come into play, driving up property prices and making housing less affordable for residents.”

Many Oregon communities have hit, or are approaching, that wall. Some smaller cities are surrounded, or nearly so, by farm and other open lands, and expanding UGBs into those areas involves clearing hurdles.

The Legislature has acted on some of this. It passed in 2024 a measure planned to help communities where rents were especially high to make a one-time expansion of its boundaries. But at least one poster child city for the effort, Woodburn, still was unable to accomplish its hoped-for expansion. In this year’s session a follow up bill was passed which may help with Woodburn’s issues.

The problem for the legislature, however, is larger than these local small-bore efforts suggest. So far the question of how to treat UGBs and who uses them and for what, has been dealt with piecemeal. A larger frame for the subject needs to be developed.

This could turn into a battle of more than housing versus economic growth, if only because those two things are related. Oregonians are going to face some hard choices if they’re going to untangle the web.

This article originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

 

The trail and the nut

On March 19, the Yamhill County Board of Commissioners voted to remove from county transportation plans a rail-to-trail corridor stretching 17 miles near Highway 47 from McMinnville to Gaston.

What comes next could be worthy of note.

But the backdrop of this decision also makes a telling story about the how and why of a political battle. This local conflict over creating a pedestrian and biking trail, a central flashpoint in local county elections this year, may have emerged from an entirely different kind of decision: To grow hazelnuts.

Rail travel from the St. Joe area on the northeast side of McMinnville north to the Forest Grove area dates from 1872, when tracks were laid and Westside system trains began running. Cities including Carlton and Gaston were founded as farm service stops along the way and named for people associated with those stops. After a brief go at passenger trolley service, the line was taken over by Union Pacific Railroad, which decades later, now decades ago, abandoned it. The tracks are long gone, the land mostly weed infested and barely passable if at all.

In 2017, Yamhill County bought the portion of the rail right of way from Union Pacific, the plan being to clear it and turn it into a rail-to-trail project similar to the Banks-Vernonia State Trail a few miles north. The idea had broad support in the area, and the county commission, dominated then as now by a two to one conservative majority, enthusiastically moved the project along.

Public support for it has persisted. A 2021 survey, taken after political pushback began, still found 64% of area respondents in favor of the trail, the number rising to 70% after more information was provided to those surveyed.

Yamhill County at one point received $1.7 million from the Oregon Department of Transportation toward trail development. (That money now has to be repaid to the state.)

In this decade, the project has sunk into quagmire. Opposition developed primarily among farmers operating near the trail, some of whom were closely allied with the commission majority. They challenged the county’s move for trail development to the Land Use Board of Appeals, from where it was returned to the county for action. The commission’s new majority turned sharply against trail development, and currently the property sits mostly neglected as the new commission struggles with dueling use suggestions.

Pieces of the old rail right of way may be sold mainly to adjacent landowners. Once that happens, prospects for a public walking or biking trail in the area probably will vanish forever.

Why the change in official attitude?

No one answer probably accounts for everything, but the key seems to be hazelnuts.

Tristin Shell Spurling, a longtime resident of the Cove Orchard area near the old rail line and a trail advocate, observed changes in farming activity near the rail line that matched with changes from support toward opposition to it. He wrote local government officials last fall with a detailed report.

Spurling noted that until about 2015, many of the farmers and conservative members of the county commission were either neutral or supportive of the trail proposal. At that time, most farmers in the adjacent areas were growing grass seed, a low-impact crop with low costs.

Hazelnut development, a higher cost (and higher risk and reward) crop became a larger factor in the area around 2016 and 2017, which is when opposition to the trail began to materialize, though commissioners remained at first largely supportive.

In the years since, the hazelnut developments expanded and some of the earlier planted orchards began to mature. As those became a larger component of the farm picture, the trail opposition began to coalesce along with it, taking legal action and pressing politically at the commission level to reject the plan altogether.

“The hazelnut conversion boom is well documented in Yamhill County during these years. This aligns with the sudden shift in hostility toward the trail,” Spurling wrote. “It often starts with one or two high-value agricultural conversions that change the perceived risk environment.”

Spurling’s wife and fellow trail supporter, Neyssa Hays, is this year a candidate for the Yamhill County Commission, for one of the seats now held by a trail opponent. (The lone commissioner who supported the public trail in the 2-1 vote is not up for election this year.)

Little of this was mentioned by the commission. Commissioner Mary Starrett said, “The county tried for many years to get this project done. The Land Use Board of Appeals said it’s not passing muster and it just kept costing us more and more money and more and more people filling these rooms and being angry and blaming commissioners.”

The battle may continue. A group called Trails PAC has filed petitions seeking a public vote before disposal of trail land. A referendum petition seeking to overturn the commission decision also is possible.

Politics grows out of many things. Sometimes political battles come out of unexpected places, like that hazelnut orchard you drive past on your next trip into the wine country.

This column originally appeared in Oregon Capital Chronicle.

An evolving field

Last August, I wrote of the upcoming contest for the Republican nomination for governor that legislator Christine Drazan, the party’s 2022 nominee, started in the preeminent position and that “any discussion of major contenders for the 2026 Republican nomination for governor has to start with her.”

In the last couple of months the field has changed, to the point that another legislator who last summer wasn’t even on the radar appears to be claiming front-runner status.

As of the end of candidate filing, 15 Republicans have filed for governor. It’s an echo of the even larger crowd of 19 four years ago. When I wrote, “The race has no obvious frontrunner, only a few names familiar to people who follow Oregon politics, and no statewide election winners and or incumbent officeholders above the county level.”

This year, most have no statewide visibility or organization or financing, and almost certainly will generate few votes. But several of them do, which gives the race more structure at least.

And in one case, an unexpected — to put it one way — survey result.

Rep. Ed Diehl of Scio on March 15 released a poll (which he said was conducted independently, not by his campaign) that showed him with 66.4% of the vote among the 10 Republican candidates for governor. The poll is credited to Predict Oregon, and it was said to have surveyed 1,022 Oregon Republicans from March 3 to 8.

It’s not a traditional poll, by any means. While traditional pollsters call or text to gather a statistically representative sample of the electorate, Predict Oregon instead solicited responses online.

David Medina, a social media influencer from Tualatin who has never won office, was said to have come in a distant second (8.7%), with Drazan (7.7%) and 2010 GOP governor nominee Chris Dudley fourth (7.6%).

Diehl’s campaign statement said “Voters want bold action on the economy, public safety, homelessness, and affordability, and this poll shows I’m the clear choice to deliver it.”

Diehl does have one claim to some statewide fame, as an organizer (as head of the Oregon Freedom Coalition) behind the referendum measure which recently pulled 250,000 petition signatures toward overturning last year’s state law increasing transportation taxes and fees.

Initiative and referendum actions can bring statewide organizational support, but it’s no guarantee of ballot success. While he did lead the referendum effort, many of its supporters also plausibly could support one of the other Republican contenders who also have opposed the transportation finance plan.

Ask Bill Sizemore, a true veteran of the initiative process who lost a governor race in a landslide in 1998, and finished fourth in 2010 and eighth in the 2022 in those Republican gubernatorial primaries.

Apart from that, Diehl is a two-term state representative who until recently had little statewide visibility.

The two former governor Republican nominees currently in the race, Dudley and Drazan, hardly look like pushovers in the primary.

Dudley can point to at least two good data points. First, since the Democrats started their current string of gubernatorial races in 1986, no Republican has come closer to winning (in 2010) than Dudley, when he got within a percent and a half of Democrat John Kitzhaber. Second, he already has significant money, roughly matching the longer-running Drazan, and including a million dollars from Nike co-founder Phil Knight.

Still, Dudley hasn’t been very visible in Oregon since his last run for governor 16 years ago, his fame-making days with the Trail Blazers are far in the rear view mirror, and questions about how grounded in Oregon he is are likely to develop. In 2010 he declared his residence was in Camas, Wash., apparently to cut payment of Oregon taxes. After his close loss for governor in 2010, he moved to California (in 2012) and stayed there until 2020. He reports he now lives in Sisters.

Too, there’s always the possibility someone else in the pack could break out, as to some degree Drazan did in 2024. Marion County Commissioner Danielle Bethell is strongly rooted in the Keizer-Salem area, with a base to build from as strong as some other contenders.

Despite all that, the race at this point still looks most like Drazan’s to lose. She came close to winning against the same (nearly certainly) Democratic nominee just four years ago. She has remained politically active, is in office now (usually a plus) and her partisan network no doubt is alive and well. At most recent reports, she still had the largest treasury of any candidate. She also started her campaign relatively early, before most of the others, and that’s usually a significant advantage.

The Democratic side of the governor primary is almost as crowded as the Republican, but it’s a different story; only incumbent governor Kotek has a statewide profile, organization or financing to credibly run a governor’s race. The only real question seems to be exactly how large a percentage of the vote she gets.

In what looks like a Democratic year in a Democratic-leaning state, the Republican nominee will have a serious challenge come November. But the last couple of months have made clear that the Republican nomination will not be casually gotten either.

This column first appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

 

Making the red flag fly

Another legislative session is over and new laws are about to go into effect that will change things, some things, in Oregon. Right?

What people around government know and everyone else should, is that passing a law is one thing and getting it to work as intended is a whole different matter.

Consider legislation from nine years ago and working only in part: the red flag law.

A decade ago, many Second Amendment advocates argued that the problem with persistent shooting deaths was not so much the broad availability of guns as the ability of specific dangerous people to get hold of them. A response to that emerged around the country in the form of red flag laws, which provide for removal of weapons (mostly but not exclusively firearms) from people who seemed at high risk of harming themselves or others.

Oregon’s track record on shootings tends to follow national rates, by population. It does have a below-average number of shootings of one person by another, but also has an especially high rate of suicide by firearm.

So far, 22 states including Oregon have enacted red flag-type laws. (Those without are mainly Republican-led states, and one, Oklahoma, has a law generally barring them.) Some of these laws refer to Extreme Risk Protection Orders (that’s the proper name in Oregon), and others refer to Risk Warrants, Gun Violence Restraining Orders or Extreme Risk Firearm Protection orders. The operating idea is similar.

The process for using it starts with someone either in law enforcement or in the family or household of the person thought to be a hazard applying to a court for an order. If the order is approved, notice is served on the person. Any readily available firearms must be turned over either to law enforcement or a third party, who could be a friend or relative.

A judge considering an order has to consider risk factors specified in state law, including reports of threats of suicide or violence (or past history of those things), lawbreaking involving violence or drug abuse or other indicators.

In August 2023, the Secretary of State’s Office reviewed the results so far of the 2017 Oregon red flag law, which took effect in 2018. The resulting report sounded ambiguous: The red flag concept had potential which was so far unfulfilled, the report suggested.

“In the first 4 and a half years that Oregon’s ERPO [Extreme Risk Protection Orders] law was in effect a total of 564 petitions were filed, with the vast majority requested by local law enforcement,” the report said. “Respondents only requested a hearing to challenge an order in about a third of these cases, with the orders being upheld about half of the time. ERPO use has varied widely among counties, with seven counties not having any since the law was implemented.”

As national use has varied — states such as Indiana and Florida use it more than Oregon — so do Oregon’s 36 counties vary not only widely but unexpectedly. You might guess heavier use of it in Multnomah County than elsewhere, but the numbers of red flag orders issued was higher in raw totals (and much higher per capita) in Washington and Deschutes counties and much higher per capita.

The highest number of orders in any county in Oregon per capita was — brace yourself — in Lake County (with 99 orders per 100,000 people). The second-highest per capita rate was in another haven for the Second Amendment, Josephine County.

Why the disparity? When Portland City Councilor Steve Novick recently reviewed the state red flag report, he was puzzled by the low Portland rate.

In a March 3 email, Novick said “After doing some reconnoitering, I concluded that a major likely reason for that is that the Portland Police Bureau never prioritized training officers on the existence and use of the law, which was passed in Oregon in 2017. The PPB Behavioral Health Unit is trained in the law, and actually files the paperwork to initiate what are called “Extreme Risk Protective Orders,” or ERPOs — but they are largely dependent on patrol officers to identify and inform them of situations where ERPOs might be appropriate.”

Novick convened a group to review this, and invited a police officer from Bend who talked about how the red flag law was used more there. Since, Novick said he received a note from Sergeant Josh Silverman of the Behavioral Health Unit, who said, “BHU officers and I are starting next month to teach a one-hour, in-person ERPO class at in-service to every sworn member of the bureau. It will take until December to get everyone trained up, as we’re running about one session a week for groups of 20–40 officers.”

That may have some practical effect. The lower use of red flag capabilities probably isn’t due either to an inability or unwillingness to use it, but to a failure to build it into a standing part of police procedure. Once it’s there, it may be used more often.

And a considerable number of lives may be saved, through a law put into effect as it was, so many years ago, originally intended.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

 

Raiders of the lost dedicated funds

Pull a dollar bill out of your wallet and you can trust that dollar will spend like any other.

And if you think the story ends there, you’re obviously not a government accountant.

Many critics of government point to a specific need — say, a ripped-up street — and angrily proclaim: “We seem to have plenty of money for (fill in the blank with some presumably less critical need). Why can’t we just use that to (do something more important, such as fix the street)?”

The short answer is, if the government did that, it probably wouldn’t be legal. The slightly longer answer is, it would be unwise — and could uproot already-shaky broad trust in government.

That’s a consideration we’ll circle around to, in a moment, in the case of the state’s immediate and critical need for transportation funding.

Money, from taxes, fees and other sources, often comes to governments with strings attached: This money is being provided under certain conditions, often limiting how it can be spent. While some revenues (mostly, the state income tax for example) can be sent to a state general fund — which ordinarily can be spent as the legislature or other governing body sees fit — many other revenue streams have to be accounted for in other ways.

This is more than commonplace in governments at all levels. You’ve seen this if you’ve ever served on or watched a local government budget committee. Cities and counties receive money from room taxes, urban development funds, state or federal funding for infrastructure and other sources that allow for their use for one thing and nothing else, and they have to be maintained in separate specific accounts. The state and federal governments do much the same thing.

Dedication is not always, forever, though, and the appearance of a revenue stream which doesn’t seem to be too heavily encumbered whets the appetite of non-recipients.

When the Oregon Lottery was launched by Ballot Measure 4 in 1984, the state’s profits went mostly to economic development with a small piece to help with curbing problem gambling. In 1995 public education got a slice, and natural resource programs were added to the mix in 1998; veterans programs got a portion after Measure 96 in 2016. None of these were very controversial, but all marked a real change from the original intent.

One heated dedicated-fund controversy in this session concerns use of lodging or transient tax revenues, started in 2003 and intended mainly to help promote tourism. Local governments can impose the tax, and use of the revenue from it is tightly restricted. There’s also a state tax, revenue from which also has been focused on tourism, and this session the legislature has been wrangling over it.

House Bill 4134 would increase the lodging tax from 1.5% to 2.75%, with the increase going toward a collection of wildlife-related programs (from the Recovering Oregon’s Wildlife Fund to a state police poaching program to a range of others).

The plan, which passed both chambers and awaits Gov. Tina Kotek’s signature, has drawn sharp reactions.

Environmental advocates have weighed in strongly; Water Watch, for example, said the relatively small tax increase would “help protect Oregon’s iconic fish and wildlife and their habitats. Providing dedicated funding to protect Oregon’s fish, wildlife and habitat will help to conserve over 300 species and their habitats.”

Travel industry groups are strongly opposed. The Oregon Restaurant & Lodging Association said the bill “would harm local hospitality and tourism businesses as well as create an additional $11 million tax on Oregonians.”

All of this is likely to be only a small sideshow in this year’s dedicated fund-raiding picture. For the big picture, look to the big-money budget sectors, like transportation.

In flush revenue years, agencies usually wouldn’t have a lot of interest in raiding funds they haven’t traditionally tapped. This is not such a year for Oregon government. The revenue picture does look better now than it did a few months ago, partly because of legislative responses to federal tax changes and partly because of an improved economic picture. But parts of the state budget, notably transportation, remain stressed.

Transportation in Oregon traditionally has been funded in large part by dedicated funds, from gas taxes, vehicle fees and more. To keep up with rising transportation costs at a time when those sources are under-producing, the 2025 legislature passed a collection of tax and fee increases, but that effort has been short-circuited through voter referendum rules and other efforts. The upshot may be personnel cuts and reductions, slowdowns or elimination of a number of transportation projects.

There is another option: Raiding dedicated funds from peripheral areas to fill some of the gaps.

Legislators should be wary about that, though, and they would be wise to move cautiously. Dedicated funds often get on the books owing to specific voter approvals, and those approvals might become hard to get if Oregonians get the idea that their original intent isn’t being adhered to.

 

Will Chavez-DeRemer be first out?

In the year-plus of the second Trump administration, no Cabinet member — despite a year-long gusher of toxic headlines relating to many of that group — has yet resigned or been fired.

Speculation for months has centered on more than a dozen names, at various times and degrees of seriousness, about who will be first to leave.

Today, there’s some basis for looking at the only Oregonian in the group, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

That’s not exactly a consensus view. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been mentioned often, as have Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and others. Loud campaigns calling for the resignation of each have surfaced for months.

Chavez-DeRemer, a former one-term U.S. representative from Oregon, has not been as high-profile as any of them, and the toxic elements of her story could be considered less important from a governing or policy view than those of some of the others.

Still, the betting platform Polymarket pegged her prospect of being the first cabinet departure at 27.3% in mid-January.

What’s the case for an early departure for the former Oregon member of Congress?

They seem not to reach into her past. She had served without significant controversy on the Happy Valley City Council and through two terms as mayor, and she ran competitively twice for the state Legislature.

A Republican, in 2022 she won a U.S. House seat in a district specifically designed to elect a Democrat. When she lost the seat in 2024, the reasons mainly reflected the gap between the slightly Democratic-leaning district and national Republicans, more than with any concerns specific to Chavez-DeRemer.

The current problems developed, or at least went public, after she joined the Trump administration. Some relate to her job execution and policies. A group of Democratic senators (including Ron Wyden of Oregon) this month sent a letter to the department complaining of the secretary’s actions “rolling back safety regulations and systemically reducing enforcement efforts at the Occupational Safety and Health Administration.” None of that was likely to hurt her standing with the president, however.

But that followed complaints about her management, involving staff incidents and styles that drew inquiries from the department’s inspector general. One report, for example, said that during a formal work trip back to Oregon, she took staffers to a Portland strip club. Another said she required assistants to undertake personal errands for her. She was accused last month of drinking alcohol in the workplace and having an extramarital affair with a subordinate. Through an attorney, Chavez-DeRemer strongly denied any claims of wrongdoing.

But then came more recent headlines about her husband, Shawn DeRemer. The New York Times reported that he has been barred from entering the Department of Labor headquarters building after a Jan. 24 report by the Washington Metropolitan Police Department about what was described as “forced sexual contact” in the department’s offices. Federal prosecutors, in the U.S. attorney’s office led by Jeanine Pirro, opted not to file charges.

The Times concluded in another article, “Morale is low among both political appointees and veteran staff members, some of whom said Ms. Chavez-DeRemer was rarely present at the department and seemed largely interested in her future political aspirations.”

The accumulation of incidents and optics have reached a level that would have resulted in an automatic ouster in most presidential administrations. The Trump administration, of course, is different. But there is reason to think Chavez-DeRemer might be a little more vulnerable to external pressure than some of the other Cabinet secretaries.

First, she is not personally or professionally especially close to Trump. She has been a loyal member of the administration, defending Trump on several fronts, but she’s not part of the inner circle the way Hegseth and Bondi seem to be.

She also doesn’t have a large national platform or support group. Kennedy, for example, had a significant personal constituency based on his activism on health and other issues; Chavez-DeRemer has a lower national profile, and so a smaller personal support base.

And the consequences of cutting her loose with the potential of Trump-damaging headlines as a result do not seem large.

So far, like all other members of the Cabinet, she has lasted for more than a year. Maybe she will stay in place for some time to come. Unlike in his first term, Trump seems reluctant to let Cabinet members go.

In the meantime, keep a watch on the betting markets.

This column first appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

 

A policeman’s conundrum

The Alex Pretti scenario ought to be under serious consideration by the Oregon Legislature. Time is running out.

Pretti, as most of us know, was the ICU nurse (and U.S. citizen) shot to death on a Minneapolis street by federal immigration authorities. The incident exploded a powerful national discussion about the agencies’ activities.

With that in mind, consider this scenario, which a couple of years ago might have been fetched far, but no longer:

A local or state Oregon law enforcement officer — state police, county sheriff’s deputy, city police officer — arrives at a scene in which a federal official is beating an Oregonian, and appears to be on the edge of killing that person or inflicting permanent injury, despite no plausible threat to the officer.

What should this state or local officer do? What is his or her responsibility, to the people of the community and state and also to law enforcement?

Should the officer intervene and stop the violence? Stand by and watch? Offer to help the federal agents? Call dispatch and ask for instructions?

Oregonians might ask at that point, who will protect us if not local and state law enforcement?

Attorneys and many law officers may reasonably reply that law enforcement officers, no matter the often-used slogan of “to serve and protect,” have little legal obligation to do that, for all that may be the public’s (and taxpayers) expectations.

One legal analysis website, for example, points out that while many people believe police and other keepers of the peace are required to shield people from harm, “under the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment, law enforcement agencies generally do not have a constitutional duty to protect individuals from the criminal acts of others.”

That’s not to say state and local officers and departments are unconcerned about safety. The Oregon City Police Department, for one example among many, declares itself “dedicated to the safety of our valued community.” Professional ethics as well as decency would push them toward protecting and serving.

But in the case of dealing with federal law agencies, it gets more complicated. The usual and normal relationship between local and federal enforcement agencies traditionally has been cooperative, which makes sense. But what happens if their interests collide — or if what the federal agents are doing specifically endangered the lives and safety of Oregonians?

The gap or even conflict between these ideas could create some real issues as the Department of Homeland Security expands, as it appears planning to do.

Today, this is a legal gray area. It hasn’t much emerged as a serious question until the last year, since up to then reports of federal officials inflicting that kind of questionable or extreme force, at least out in the open, have been relatively few. But such cases have appeared around the country, not least in Portland. More than a few people in Oregon law enforcement probably have nightmare thoughts about what might happen in their own communities.

The issue of how far Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the Border Patrol may go, how much violence is allowed (under the Trump Administration) and under what conditions, and apparently unlimited immunity to consequences, seems to create a completely open question.

Courts have begun to address it to a limited degree. On Feb. 3, U.S. District Judge Michael H. Simon issued an order temporarily stopping ICE agents active at the agency’s Portland office from firing less-lethal munitions at nonviolent protesters, which included seniors and children.

State law is mostly silent in this area. The Oregon Legislature has only touched around the edges of some of the issues involved, mainly putting a little finer point on rules already in force.

A proposed constitutional amendment, Senate Joint Resolution 203 would require police officers to wear identification and not wear masks, but that’s already standard practice in Oregon anyway, and probably could not govern federal officers. A proposed law, House Bill 4138, would fill in some of those requirements.

Legislators are also at work on increasing the scope of Oregon’s “sanctuary laws” which limit state and local law agencies in their cooperation with ICE and related agencies. Rep. Kevin Mannix, R-Salem, is considering a change to sanctuary law which would open the door to more sharing of information with federal agencies in the cases of people convicted of serious misdemeanors and felonies.

None of that addresses how state law officers should react to apparent lawbreaking by federal officials. The job of answering that question would fall partly to local governments, but also to the Oregon Legislature. And it has little time left in this year’s short session to act before we all see what awaits in the rest of this year.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

(image)

A partial decoupling?

The federal government and the state of Oregon have a disconnect these days on everything from health care to energy policy to, obviously, immigration.

But it boils down to specifics in the case of Oregon Senate Bill 1507, which concerns income taxes, and that requires some explanation — not to mention swift consideration, this being the income tax-paying part of the year.

Where you land on this bill probably relates almost exactly to what you thought of the “big beautiful bill” (House Resolution 1) passed last year by the Republican-majority Congress, and backed by President Donald Trump.

But details matter. Even in Oregon, there’ll be no absolute linking or disconnect; more likely, Oregon will choose among the federal provisions to accept or reject. That calls for some study, rather than a binary selection of which team to support.

Most years, states that impose an income tax match the rules concerning the federal income tax closely with their own. This usually makes tax preparation and business planning easier. Some states, including Oregon, have a default rule that the state follows the federal model unless the Legislature decides otherwise. The Legislature has done that in the past, as in 2018.

Idaho is one of the states running the other way: There, conformance with the federal rules needs specific legislative approval, which ordinarily is given. This year, that approval is roaring along in that state’s legislature, partly because the conformance aligns the Idaho Legislature with national Republican policy.

The states split widely (mainly along red and blue divider lines) on how they’re responding to the income tax issue and Oregon, naturally, has a story of its own.

The recent federal tax law is viewed overall negatively in Oregon, but that’s not universal. A Senate Finance and Revenue Committee hearing on Feb. 4 exploring “decoupling” the state from many (not all) of the federal provisions, drew an array of opinions within 495 submitted opinions. A slight majority of them opposed the bill — that is, favored keeping last year’s congressional tax bill as a model for Oregon’s state income tax rules.

Those critics included some who seemed not to understand the bill; some said they opposed imposition of a sales tax, which isn’t what the bill is about. Others simply proclaimed themselves in opposition to taxes.

But some critics were more specific. An example came from Rep. E. Werner Reschke, R-Malin: “Since the passage of H.R. 1 by Congress in July of 2025, Oregonians have been experiencing the benefits from this economic stimulus program. No longer being taxed on tips, overtime or interest on car loans is a great relief for many Oregonians — especially those finding it difficult to make ends meet. Moreover, H.R. 1’s bonus and R&D same-year expensing/depreciation is an incredibly helpful incentive for businesses to invest both their people and their capital in Oregon. Disconnecting from such important parts of the federal tax code would put Oregon at a serious disadvantage compared to other states.”

The counterargument starts with the loss of state revenue under the new federal provisions. The exact number remains uncertain, but it seems likely to be significant.

Still, not all of the federal bill is being targeted for decoupling. The battle ahead lies within the details: Where tax levels or deductions or other rules should be set, for different types of income.

The federal bill, for example, generally offers a new tax exemption for tip income, and whether you can qualify for it appears to depend on whether you fit into one of 68 (that number may be in flux) “treasury tipped occupation codes.” The categories set in 2024 include unexpected categories such as self-enrichment teachers, pet caretakers and club dancers, though there’s been talk of creative redefinition of “tipping” that could add some higher-income occupations too. Regardless, the tip rule change hasn’t drawn a lot of opposition.

The core of the pro-1507 argument is laid out by the Oregon Center for Public Policy, which contended the federal law “has left Oregon’s financial future on the brink, all to give tax breaks disproportionately to the richest households.” It specified three targets for decoupling.

One is the qualified small business stock exclusion, which the OCPP described as “giving early investors, notably venture capitalists, special tax breaks on their shares of certain corporations.” It’s aimed at higher-income investors, not a broad spectrum of Oregon taxpayers.

Then there’s the bonus depreciation, “a windfall for corporations, subsidizing investments they would likely do anyway. Businesses typically depreciate their purchases over time, reflecting the loss of value due to wear and tear, but bonus depreciation allows them to do it right away, creating greater opportunities for corporate tax avoidance.” The Oregon Legislature might have some incentive to go along with this if the investments were Oregon-specific, but they aren’t.

A third is the Auto Loan Interest Deduction, which does help with the price of buying a car — but only a new car, since less-expensive used cars aren’t covered.

There’s a good chance the OCPP will get a good deal of what it is seeking. But keep watch on the details, not an imagined bottom line of whether Oregon disconnects or not. It’s not all or nothing; it’s pick and choose.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.