On March 26, Gov. Tina Kotek declared a drought emergency in Deschutes, Umatilla and Baker counties at the request of county governments. Call that the first drop of what may soon be a flood of drought-related actions.
This may be the most challenging large-scale drought year Oregon has seen in decades.
Kotek’s executive order hinted at that. It also said “forecasts suggest that below normal precipitation and streamflow conditions are likely to continue through summer in all counties following an extended period with precipitation and temperature conditions that contributed to well below normal snowpack.”
The deliberate language may understate the situation given what’s developed in recent months. And that’s without considering Wallowa and Jefferson counties, which didn’t make the emergency cut for Kotek’s recent order but may before long.
For all that Oregon has a reputation as water-soaked, most of it is arid. Even most of the western region is less moist than many people believe, and water supply has trended to the low side for some years. This year something close to a perfect non-storm hit: Light precipitation plus unseasonably warm weather (such as now, as this is written). Much of Oregon got little or no snow last winter, in places where at least some snowfall is or has been more the norm.
Unseasonal warmth probably has been the bigger factor. Across nearly all of Oregon, since the current “water year” (as marked by federal agencies) started Oct. 1, precipitation mainly as rainfall across nearly all the state has been between between 70% and 90% of normal, meaning compared to the measurements from 1991 to 2020. (Two areas, the Hood-Sandy-Lower Deschutes and the Umatilla-Walla Walla, are slightly higher.) You can see all of this mapped on a federal Oregon snow survey web page.
The federal website drought.gov reported a month ago “Stations in the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington are reporting the greatest snowpack deficits in the West. Some states, such as California, are already experiencing an early melt out of snow.”
And it said, “Every major river basin in the West experienced its first or second warmest winter (December, January and February) on record. The Great Basin, Rio Grande, Arkansas-White-Red, and Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins experienced their warmest winter on record, while the Missouri and Columbia River Basins recorded their second warmest.”
If that were being stored in snowpack in the mountain ranges, which is what normally happens, that wouldn’t be a great problem.
But the “snow water equivalent” map from the National Resources Conservation Service shows Oregon’s basins (excepting the coast, which isn’t counted the same way) are in hot red coloring — extremely low snow water percentages. Those numbers run as low as 0% in the John Day and the Malheur areas, but are down to 9% even in the Willamette.
As Larry O’Neill, Oregon’s state climatologist, told the Oregon Capital Chronicle, “It’s a very worrying trend. Because it was so warm, our snowpack just really failed to build. Snowpack functionally acts as a reservoir for water. Basically, our largest reservoir of water is nearly empty at this point in time.”
Here’s a comparison: Go back to April 2025, and you’ll see Oregon basins almost all bathed in blue, with nearly all percentages well above 100%.
Oregon hasn’t looked nearly this dry, headed into spring and summer, since 2015, and even that wasn’t quite as bad as our current readings. (The maps suggest Oregon’s drought may be on a level — adjusted for normal precipitation — with Nevada and Arizona.) That year, more than two-thirds of Oregon’s counties had drought declarations.
In the years since then, only 2022 has come close for dryness.
Put another way, if you’re hearing that this looks like a drought year, think of conditions likely to affect you personally. If you’re a farmer depending on irrigation, of course, the situation is much more extreme. Wildfires become higher risk in drought times too.
So what can be done?
Drought declarations by the governor — and you can expect to see many more before the year is out — can help with access to some government programs and speeding reviews and funding, but they can do only so much. Conservation measures probably should get underway now.
Maybe the best thing we can do is use this year as an object lesson in what to prepare for, because the trend lines suggest we’re going to be seeing more of this, not less.
This column first appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.









