RANDY STAPILUS   The Idaho Column

UPDATE: Belatedly, I heard the original source for some of this analysis was a report by StateImpact Idaho, by Emilie Ritter Saunders. So noted.

A piece of demographic analysis reported widely a week ago, about shifting tends in the makeup of Idaho’s population, deserves some serious thought well beyond the thumb-tacked issue it highlighted.

That reason, as KTVB-TV’s web article said, was that it is “a change that’s alarming some jobs experts.” That’s not wrong. There’s a good reason the shifts in Idaho age groups – the state is losing younger people and attracting what is referred to as a “gray tsunami” – ought to concern those analysts; it really does have an effect on the labor force, which in turn affects business development.

Longer-term trend lines weren’t immediately available, and that would have helped nail down the point. But there is some evidence things are moving in this direction; labor analysts found that in March another 1,400 people left the Idaho labor force.

But surely (to reiterate here the point again, albeit that some of the numbers came from the state Department of Labor) there are concerns that range well beyond those of business executives.

The analysis grew in large part out of a look at data from the state Transportation Department records, mainly drivers and other license information, to figure out where adults (and some teenagers) come from to Idaho, and where they go from the state. Historically, those numbers have been interesting, but larger conclusions are difficult to draw. They’re not so difficult this time,

The report said that in 2012, net outmigration – people moving away from Idaho as opposed to moving in – was at higher levels, higher than in more than a decade. Bob Fick of the Department of Labor, which also tracks these kind of statistics, said “That’s the first time we’ve had an outmigration from the 80s. … Will we have the labor force to man a recovery?”

The reason for concern is not so much the overall numbers but the age cohorts: People in their 20s were disproportionately moving out, and people above 60 disproportionately were moving in.

One impact, Fick suggested, is a slowing the “goods” (partly, manufacturing) economy, which generates relatively high-wage jobs, and more service jobs – reflecting what younger vs. older consumers tend to buy. That may translate to lower overall wages (Idaho ranks high on the percentage of workers at the minimum wage), and a softer consumer economy.

Let’s look at this through a political lens. Continue Reading »

CHRIS CARLSON   Carlson Chronicles

Saw a news item a few weeks ago that could be exhibit A regarding
what educators are calling a Common Core of Knowledge that a student
graduating from any high school in the country should have mastered.

The multi-millionaire superstar of the Los Angeles Lakers, Kobe Bryant,
was telling a reporter about the entire Lakers team having gone to see
Daniel Day Lewis’ exceptional performance in the movie Lincoln.
Asked to characterize his and the team’s reaction to the film, Bryant
said they all thought it was a pretty good movie but were shocked and
surprised by the ending.

Really? These gazillionaire basketball players, most of whom
supposedly are college graduates, none of them including Kobe, knew
that Lincoln had been the first president to be assassinated? That folks is
what developing a Common Core of Knowledge for students to master is
all about.

It is not a plot by the Federal government to usurp local control of
our public schools. It is not a conspiracy to brainwash our students
into becoming liberal leaning robots who will look to Big Brother for
everything. It is not a conspiracy.

It is a long overdue effort by educators at all levels to define a basic
body of knowledge every student should master if they are going to be
awarded a high school degree and proceed out into the labor force to
become a responsible, accountable productive citizen able to function
reasonably well in a society full of those all too ready to exploit the
ignorant and the uninformed.

Put another way, it is just plain common sense for this country to
develop and require the mastery of a common core of knowledge.
Every state’s superintendent of public instruction is participating in
developing some aspect of this effort working with the U.S. Department of Education.

Idaho’s Tom Luna is a practicing member of the LDS Church and is
about as conservative as they come. He is as sensitive and as attuned to
guarding against infringements on “State’s rights” and “local control” as
the most ardent Tea Party type could wish. He has Idaho participating
in a coalition of states developing recommendations in math and the
language arts for what they believe should be the common core.

He still has his common sense about common core. As any reader of my
columns knows, I was highly critical of the proposed Luna Laws and the
top down process he and Governor Otter engaged in to foist their vision
of education reform off on the Idaho electorate. Continue Reading »

RANDY STAPILUS   The Idaho Column

As the battle over gun regulation continues, the argument most promoted as an alternative to gun restrictions is the need to do more about mental health. National Rifle Association President Wayne LaPierre, last December, making the case: “We have a mental health system in this country that has completely and totally collapsed.”

As a gun-rights state second to none, Idaho might be expected to go after the matter of mental health in a more serious way. As a matter of policymaking, concerns about mental health per se might be a hard sell, but propping up the argument on guns would seem to be front burner … if problem-solving really is of much interest.

Idaho hasn’t been doing (yet) what its neighbor to the south, Nevada, reportedly has been doing of late: Packing mentally ill patients on Greyhound buses and sending them to the other 49 states (1,500 or so from the Rawson-Neal Psychiatric Center at Las Vegas). But ….

In February, the Idaho Department of Correction, which had been seeking approval for a secure mental health facility containing 579 beds – a substantial percentage of people behind bars in Idaho as elsewhere have serious mental issues – dropped the proposal. The department said that “Director Brent Reinke decided to withdraw the proposal while the agency works with the Department of Health and Welfare, the courts, the Idaho Criminal Justice Commission and other stakeholders on developing a plan for addressing broader issues.”

Could that be a longer version of: “Let’s form a committee”? That would cost less than the facility.

The department outsources medical care, physical and mental, at the correctional institutions, and its current contractor is Corizon, of Brentwood, Tennessee. It’s a big company, providing services at 349 correctional facilities in 29 states. But as with the Corrections Corporation of America, which runs one of Idaho’s prisons, there have been issues.

Last week the Board of Correction chose to continue its Corizon contract, now valued at $27 million annually, just until January rather than for a full year. It will also solicit other bids. There were prompts for this: Idaho fined Corizon for missing benchmarks, and a federal lawsuit has added pressure for improvements. The Associated Press said in one story last week that “a federally appointed expert concluded its medical care was so bad it amounted to cruel and unusual punishment.” Continue Reading »

This Idaho Weekly Briefing this week carries some unsettling numbers: The tuition increases for students at Idaho colleges and universities.

A correspondent, a a usually reliable source who has followed the issue for four decades, did some analysis to show what’s happened in that area over time.

Using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI, I estimated that tuition has increased over 200 percent above the CPI inflation rate.

I used the “remembered” figure of $400/year in 1972-73 (I think it was actually about $360); using the CPI, this would have been about $2227 in 2013, instead of $6524. (And out-of-state tuition was then ?perhaps $1000 a year? Now it’s $13,000 for undergraduate.)

I also figured that it now costs over $10 per “class contact hour” (one hour/50 minutes of attendance). That should make cutting/sleeping late/etc. a real financial decision (albeit something I never took into consideration until very late in my student career).

[18 credit-hours per semester X 17 weeks per semester X 2 semesters = 36 credit hours X 17 weeks = 612 contact hours for $6524 tuition = $10.66/class].

OSPREY HATCH: Transportation Department crews placed an osprey nest atop a high platform; soon an osprey flew by to inspect their work. ITD environmental planners were concerned that relocating the nest from the Del Rio Bridge on the U.S. 20 business loop east of St. Anthony would drive the birds away. Twenty minutes after ITD workers left the site, however, an osprey landed, apparently ready to homestead.. (image/Idaho Department of Transportation)

This week’s Briefings were heavy on legislative and post-legislative activity, but there was plenty of resource news too … such as the posting of a nest of Osprey in Idaho.

RANDY STAPILUS   The View from Here

A few words here about the Idaho Statesman‘s new editorial page editor, Robert Ehlert.

Some correspondents have had some snark to point his way; they surely aren’t alone, so let’s put it out there. Ehlert has had a few years since working for news media (including several metro-level newspapers), during which time he first worked in the office of a congressional office – a natably partisan, conservative and ambitious Californian named Dan Lundgren – and then as head of Robert Ehlert Associates, the nature of whose consulting work remains a little hazy. The argument goes like this: Ehlert was hired by the Statesman to make nice with the state’s conservative Republican political and business establishment and serve as its apologist.

I mention this not to join in that line of argument but, for time being at least, quite the opposite.

It could be true. Or not; the evidence of what Ehlert will do with the editorial page will be visible soon enough, starting with a column in today’s paper (which doesn’t really mark out a direction). Assessments can be based on that clearly enough, in the weeks and months to come.

In his introductory column, Ehlert writes, “I do not regret one moment swimming in the channels and tides of policy and debate, because the experience was like getting an advanced degree in How Things Work And Occasionally Get Done In Government – Or Not.” That’s totally fair, and many journalists who cover government and politics might be better at it with some hands on experience.

When I came to Idaho and started in journalism school, probably the most highly regarded reporter in Idaho was Jay Shelledy of the Lewiston Morning Tribune, aggressive and (in some quarters) even feared. At the time, he was less than two years out from work on as press secretary on a Senate campaign. He surely learned a lot in the experience.

A little over a decade ago, I was campaign manager on two statewide campaigns in Idaho. Afterward, I returned to writing about politics, and I think I was able to approach it with a little more understanding than I had before.

Perry Swisher, the veteran and (by many) revered Idaho public figure who died last year, was in and out of both politics and journalism over a period of decades, and maintained strongly that both endeavors were enhanced by the joint experience, and scowled at journalists who tried to hold themselves rigidly apart from the rest of society.

At this point, Ehlert begins with a clean slate. Now let’s see what he writes on it.

RANDY STAPILUS   The Idaho Column

In Idaho, one election cycle out of every three qualifies as a big campaign year for Idaho – highlighted by races for both governor and senator – and 2014 will be one of them.

Those aren’t the presidential election cycles. General election presidential campaigning in blood-red Idaho just doesn’t happen anymore, although it does see some occasional some pre-nomination stumping, which Idaho did get in 2012. And election of all the statewide state offices are on the off-cycles, the mid-terms, away from presidential years. But only some of those have elections for the U.S. Senate; 2010, 2004 and 2002 did, but 2006 and 2000 did not. 2014 will feature one of those double headers.

That year Idaho gets a senate race, a governor’s race, the rest of the statewides and the regular two-year offices (mainly legislature). In some years that’s been enough to grab all kinds of attention around the state.

It might nonetheless be a snoozer. But for some of the same reasons it might be dull and almost ignorable, it could turn into a lively scrap at the primary level.

Last week Senator Jim Risch said specifically he plans to run for re-election next year. Risch knows the value of early announcements; that part of how now-Governor C.L. “Butch” Otter got the jump on the Republican nomination for the office, despite initial interest from Risch, in 2006. By announcing early, odds are that Risch has cleared the field of serious opposition. If, say, Representative Raul Labrador had been interested, the time for a push would have been before a Risch announcement. Now the state’s Republican organizations and alliances will have time to coalesce around him, leaving few scraps for any in-party opposition. Continue Reading »

MARTIN PETERSON

One of the great traditions of the Idaho Legislature is the day they set aside each session to memorialize former members who passed away during the previous year. With the relatively high turnover of members, most of those who are memorialized are unknown to the current members. But it is a time for the departed former members to have one last day in the legislative sun. Families of those being memorialized are invited to sit in the visitors’ gallery while one of the current members recalls the years of service and accomplishments of the former member.

And, in those instances where the legislator doing the memorial actually knew the deceased, there are anecdotes, often humorous, about the individual.

I have always felt it unfortunate that once a person leaves the Legislature they are usually so quickly forgotten. But, with the exception of the highest ranking elected officials, such as governors and U.S. senators, once you leave office, all of the effort you made and your occasional accomplishments, no matter how significant, are forgotten. Well, the accomplishments may well be remembered, but not the fact that you were responsible for them. The same is even more true with elected local officials with cities, counties and school districts.

All of this brings to mind the passing, forty years ago this week, of one of Idaho’s most dedicated public officials, Edward V. Williams. For many who recall the name, it will most likely be associated with the Edward V. Williams Conference Center at Lewis Clark State College. For those who don’t recall Ed and his many years of dedicated service to the people of Lewiston and the state of Idaho, let me take this opportunity to bring him back, even if briefly, into the public spotlight.

I first met Ed Williams in April 1960. I was a seventeen year old junior at Clarkston High School and had received my parents’ approval to join the Idaho National Guard. Ed Williams, or Captain Ed, as he was known in the Guard, was battery commander of Headquarters Battery of the 148th Field Artillery. The night I joined the National Guard, he administered the oath. It was the beginning of a great friendship.

Ed was also an educator with the Lewiston School District and was extremely dedicated to his profession. Between his activities with students, teachers and administrators, and his service with the National Guard, he was a well-known and highly respected member of the community.

So much so that in 1963 he was elected to the Idaho House of Representatives. Ed was a popular legislator and was elected House Minority Leader by his Democratic colleagues. This is the same position that nearly fifty years later is now occupied by Rep. John Rusche of Lewiston. Continue Reading »

RANDY STAPILUS   The Idaho Column

If the poet John Donne and the novelist Ernest Hemingway were right, that “no man is an island,” that we should “send not to know/For whom the bell tolls/It tolls for thee,” then we all are damaged by the carnage at Holbrook.

The case has gotten some attention, but so horrific is it that national viral status would almost be expected. It was a case of terror on so many levels.

In Holbrook.

Probably not many Idahoans easily could place Holbrook on a map. It is located about 10 miles west of Malad, in high open field country surrounded by mountains, country well away from population centers. I have driven through it a few times, but never had occasion to stop, partly because there was nothing to stop for, no visible commercial or public activity. It once was a true small town, but not an incorporated city, something places with as few as a dozen people have founded, and for decades has been more a clustering of houses. Population for the area is reported as 400; if you drive through, you may suspect that seems high.

Such places may be remote from metro areas, but the people there are not remote from each other. This isn’t a matter of the vaunted small-town snoopiness, but the reality that with fewer people around, with fewer activities and distractions and less traffic, you see what goes on around you.

That’s part of what makes the events there so disturbing.

The people who lived at the crime scene were not entirely distant from their community. On March 31, law enforcement officials said, the people in the house that became a crime scene hosted an Easter party. (As of last week, investigators were seeking out anyone who attended.) They might have seen something reportable.

There was plenty to see. A big pack of dogs was housed there – 64 pit pulls were found there about a week ago, with clear indications that at least many of them were being used for dog fighting. That activity, thanks to a recent change in Idaho law, is now a felony, and the reasons for that are not just because of the horrific effects on the dogs: It is often a good indicator that something has gone deeply wrong with the people involved, too. That was outside the house. Inside, investigators found 38 marijuana plants and enough cash to indicate significant trafficking was underway, another indicator of trouble. Continue Reading »

Northwest Reading

A review of the last Idaho legislative session from Idaho Democratic Chair Larry Kenck.

The 2013 Idaho Legislature exceeded expectations. By that measure, it succeeded. Unfortunately, our expectations are so low for this annual GOP-controlled event that we can call it a success if they don’t accidentally burn down the Capitol.

Let’s look at how they exceeded our expectations.

In December, Idaho’s wealthiest corporate interests had convinced everyone that a $140 million tax shift from big business to homeowners was a virtual certainty. Counties, cities, schools and Idaho Democrats crunched the numbers, rallied, and got the word out. In the end, small and medium-sized businesses saw their personal business property taxes cut without severely harming communities.

That was certainly better than we expected.

The Legislature also birthed a small group of Republicans who stood up to rightwing radicals who are still fighting the Affordable Care Act. This minority of the majority joined Idaho Democrats to help create a state-run health insurance exchange, benefiting consumers and giving Idaho control over insurance options.

That small triumph for moderation was unexpected.

Of course, we always expect some truly awful ideas to emerge from the GOP fringe. And, I suppose it’s fair to credit GOP leaders, along with Idaho Democrats, for killing some terrible legislation. Continue Reading »

RANDY STAPILUS   The Idaho Column

As this year’s Idaho legislative session cranked up in January, many observers noted two significant changes in it: An unusually large number of freshmen, and a new House speaker who, for the first time in decades, had ousted an incumbent who would still be in the chamber in the session ahead.

There was some suggestion that these things might be a big deal in the course of this year’s session: New people, a new way of doing or looking at things.

That legislature adjourned just before noon on Thursday, a mid-length session. Now, looking in the rear view mirror, looking at the large picture, it seems reasonable to say: Eh, not so much.

That doesn’t mean the commentary from a season ago was totally off base. In the Idaho Legislature, very little of real substance has changed in two decades, even while some (not all) of the names have, so people understandably get excited about anything new that does happen.

And it’s not that the new freshman crowd and the new Speaker Scott Bedke have made no difference. Both certainly mattered in what may be the keynote event of the session, the passage of a health insurance exchange bill. A group of 16 freshmen may have provided the legislative lubricant to ease it through to a narrow win in the House, and Bedke may have made possible progress on the bill, period; it had died a year earlier under his predecessor, Lawerence Denney.

Bedke’s administration of the House was widely touted as smoother, more efficient and less controversy-prone than Denney’s. (There even seemed to be somewhat fewer “quotable quotes,” the kind that go viral nationwide, than in the last few sessions.) The Legislature’s “climate” – emotional and temperamental – was said to have improved. People inside the building tend to notice and appreciate that sort of thing a lot more than people outside it. Continue Reading »

One of the changes in this year’s Idaho legislative session from last was … no public hearings on the budget. Last year, hundreds of people jammed hearings on budget settings. This year … no hearings.

As to why no hearings this time, we’ll leave aside. But it’s worth quoting for a moment from a press release issued last week at the Oregon Legislature, which also is bearing down on budgeting.

Senator Richard Devlin (D-Tualatin) and Representative Peter Buckley (D-Ashland), co-chairs of the Legislature’s Joint Ways and Means Committee, announced today that the committee will hold six public hearings across the state to consider comments on the state budget.

The hearings will begin in Eugene and will include stops in Ashland, Bend, Hermiston, Portland, and Tillamook as well as a hearing at the State Capitol. Several of the meetings will offer live streaming of the meetings, and the Hermiston meeting will offer video conferencing so participants in other eastern Oregon locations can participate remotely.

Greater Pocatello Chamber of Commerce President & CEO Matt Hunter (left) chats with lobbyist John Watts at an Idaho Falls luncheon. (photo/Mark Mendiola)

MARK MENDIOLA   Reports

John Watts, a partner at Veritas Advisors, has been lobbying Idaho legislators since 1983 on behalf of a wide range of clients.

When he addressed an Idaho Falls Mayor’s Business Day luncheon on April 2, two days before the Legislature adjourned, he said its 2013 session has been “truly uniquely different,” setting new precedents and breaking traditions.

The Boisean said 24-hour cable news, cell phones and social media like Facebook and Twitter were not in existence 30 years ago when he started his career as a lobbyist, but they have dramatically changed the way business is now conducted at the State Capitol.

Everyone at the Statehouse also is worrying about issues at the federal level that directly impact Idaho, Watts said. “Then, along comes redistricting,” which brought about a whole new set of legislative districts and a crop of 32 brand new legislators.

And, for the first time in his memory, a sitting speaker of the House was defeated for re-election, Watts said, referring to Scott Bedke’s defeat of fellow Republican Lawrence Denney for the top post, which Denney has held since 2006.

A Joint Finance and Appropriations Committee education bill was defeated on the floor of the Senate. Watts said he does not remember in 30 years a JFAC bill dying such a death. Usually, JFAC legislation is considered a given because representatives of both houses work together to draft it.

Six of 10 Senate chairmanships and seven of 14 House chairmanships are
held by new legislators, Watts noted. There also is a new minority leader in the Senate. “Sophomores are sitting as chairs,” he said.

Watts likened the Idaho Legislature to a business where one third of the work force is replaced and told to start work the next day with up to 60 percent of the managers brand new. This session also marked the first time it was mandatory for all legislators to undergo ethics training.

One of the longest debates in the Legislature’s history also happened this session, pertaining to establishing a state health insurance exchange in response to the federal Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act or “Obamacare” taking effect.

The controversial issue was debated for nine hours on the House floor and for seven hours in the Senate, ranking for length of time with when abortion was debated in the Legislature during the early 1990s, Watts said. Full hearings regarding the health care issue took nearly two full months, too. Continue Reading »

CHRIS CARLSON   Carlson Chronicles

Pure unadulterated balderdash. Pure B.S. That’s the only way to describe the baloney Coeur – the Precious Metals Company – is serving up as its excuse for relocating its corporate headquarters from Coeur d’Alene to Chicago later this year.

It’s bad enough that most corporate Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and Presidents are grossly overpaid by compliant boards, even when the CEO has failed miserably but is still given the proverbial golden parachute. When boards though give way and acquiesce to pure CEO vanity, shareholders ought to sue.

Make no mistake, folks, this move is an exercise in personal vanity by Coeur’s president and chief executive officer, Mitchell Krebs. He and his wife both hail from the Chicago area and want to get closer to home.
So let’s just pick up the corporate headquarters and move, ma!

What does it matter that 45 of their 65 employees will not be moving and will lose their jobs? After all, the company offered to relocate any one that wanted to keep their job by moving. Such a deal. So what then if a supportive community loses 45 good-paying jobs? And add 90 more secondary jobs (2 to 1 economic multiplier) for a total of 135 lost jobs.

So let’s examine the proposed rationales. Chicago supposedly provides improved access to key stakeholders. Just what does that mean? Krebs can more frequently have lunch at a downtown club with a shareholder who if he really wanted to talk face-to-face could be in his corporate jet and in Coeur d’Alene within three hours?

More and easier access to your operations? Come again. Presumably he must mean commercial air access since Coeur does not have its own jet. To get to their Kensington Mine outside of Juneau one has to go through Seattle. Last time I checked Coeur d’Alene and Spokane’s airports are closer than Chicago to Seattle.

Or their Chilean property. Best way to go is through Los Angeles. I think Spokane is closer than Chicago to LA’s Airport.

Where the B.S. really starts to get thick is Krebs parroting Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s propaganda about Chicago being a totally pro-business city.

Really? More so than Coeur d’Alene? Extremely doubtful. Chicago has one of the worst public school systems in the country. Chicago is very much a union town and make no mistake the historic patronage system is still alive and well.

Oh, but Coeur will also have access to a larger talent pool? Really? In this age of the internet that is doubtful. Besides, when mining companies go shopping for talent they tend to look where there are still vital schools of mines such as the Colorado School of Mines, or Montana Tech in Butte, or the University of Nevada at Reno or the University of Arizona.

Indeed, if one really did need to move for most of the trumped up reasons Krebs mentioned, most industry observers say that Phoenix or Denver would make much more sense. Continue Reading »

MARTIN PETERSON

Fifty years ago this summer, a group of very conservative Idaho Republicans put into motion a series of events destined to turn the direction of the Idaho Republican far to the right. It began at the 1963 state Republican convention with the election Gwen Barnett as Idaho’s Republican national committeewoman. At the time she was the youngest member of the national committee.

The following year the party nominated Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater to be its presidential standard bearer. It was a conservative revolution for the party and one that had disastrous consequences when Goldwater lost in a landslide to Lyndon Johnson.

Barnett had become a close ally of the Goldwater forces. Her friend Dean Burch, a former member of the Goldwater Senate staff, had been elected Republican national chairman. She was also close to such rising conservative stars as John Tower, who had become the first Republican elected to the senate from Texas since Reconstruction.

Following Goldwater’s defeat, Idaho Governor Robert Smylie, as chairman of the Republican Governors’ Association and a leading party moderate, led efforts to purge the party of Burch and others. Barnett responded by embarking on a personal crusade to purge Smylie from the party by defeating him when he ran for re-election in 1966. Her candidate became Don Samuelson, a three-term state senator from Sandpoint. Samuelson was a staunch conservative who, while serving a generally lackluster single term as Governor, helped to solidify the conservative element of the state party into the party’ driving force. He also helped to ensure that the Democrats, led by Cecil Andrus, would capture the governorship in 1970 for the first time in a quarter century.

Now fast forward fifty years to the 2013 legislative session. The defeat on the Senate floor of the public school appropriations bill on an 18-17 vote has been viewed by some legislative observers as being unprecedented. Not true. The last time this happened was in 1992, and it happened several times in the 1980s. The real story is not the actual defeat of the bill, but the driving forces behind the defeat.

In recent years the Senate has always been considered the moderate check against the more conservative forces in the House. But as of 2013, the pendulum has swung in the other direction. Actually, the swing had begun in 2010 when then Senator Joe Stegner, a GOP moderate, was defeated in his effort to be re-elected Republican assistant majority leader by conservative Senator Chuck Winder. Continue Reading »