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Posts published in “Harris”

The Conger case

harris ROBERT
HARRIS

 
Oregon
Outpost

Because of the rules of the Senate, and because both Republicans and Democrats in the Senate vote with unity, a Senate general election isn’t solely about which candidate you like or are closer to agreement with. It is as much about which party you like more based on their national platform and leadership behaviors.

That’s why Jason Conger is the best choice to represent Oregon Republicans against Sen. Jeff Merkley in November.

First a reality check. There is very little chance that enough Oregon independent moderates are going to put the National Republicans in charge of the US Senate. Because while the OR GOP sometimes seems to be on its way towards being more modern party, the national GOP does not.

Dr. Wheby is more pro choice? So what? That will carry exactly zero weight in the general election because we know that her position on that issue will have zero effect in the US Republican Senate caucus. In fact, her pro choice position probably hurts her chances for party leadership if she were elected At least if independents vote for Merkley we know that his leadership stock is rising and he can protect Oregon financially at the leadership table. And if we are able to vote for Conger his social policy positions are more like a non-elitist blue collar Reagan Democrat and could help him within the GOP caucus.

What could a Conger nomination do for Oregon Republicans? It would elevate a strong leader with deep roots onto the State leadership stage. A candidate who didn’t just parachute into politics and who you can count on to continue working to make the Oregon GOP a better party – win or lose.

So, OR GOP’ers should do themselves a favor here. Think about which candidate would be better for the Oregon GOP win or lose. Though there’s nothing wrong with believing that lightening will strike at the same time as all the stars align and that candidate Conger will pull a big upset of Merkley. And that’s just as likely to happen with a Conger candidacy as with a Wehby candidacy.

If the Oregon GOP wants to get back in the game. Vote for Jason Conger.

(The opinion expressed here is solely that of the author and not of any other authors associated with Oregon Outpost)

A different kind of challenger for Devlin

harris ROBERT
HARRIS

 
Oregon
Outpost

Powerful State Senator Richard Devlin may face a challenge in November after all. Though no Republicans filed for Senate District 19 (Lake Oswego, Tualatin, West Linn), Independent Party Member Rick Miller has formed a committee and has conducted polling to test the viability of an Independent candidacy.

SD-19 registrations are: Democratic 43%; Republican 31%, Non Affiliated 21%, Independent Party 5%.

In 2010 Devlin easily defeated Conservative Charter School advocate Mary Kremer (spouse of Republican right wing activist Rob Kremer), 55% to 45%. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the District is reliably Democratic.

Back in 2010 Republican Steve Griffith, who polling showed would have likely been a much tougher general election opponent for Devlin, was defeated in the 2010 Republican primary by Kremer. Griffith had a stellar resume of accomplishment, including serving as Chair of the Portland School Board. But his candidacy ran into the conservative buzz saw that is now standard Oregon Republican primary politics.

Absent a surprising write in campaign for the Republican nomination, there will be no one appearing on the ballot in November as a Republican.

If Millers polling is similar to Griffiths back in 2010 then a right of center moderate nominee of the Independent Party could result in a dynamic one on one general election. (more…)

The financial base and the voting base

harris ROBERT
HARRIS

 
Oregon
Outpost

Welcome Robert Harris, our latest contributor at Ridenbaugh Press. Harris has lived his entire life in the Oregon and Washington. He is the managing partner of Harris Law Firm, a general practice “Mom and Pop” law firm of ten attorneys located in the Portland Oregon metro region. For 30 years he was a registered Democrat but is now a leader in the Independent Party of Oregon and the editor of OregonOutpost.com.

The US Supreme Court's line of cases protecting virtually unlimited election spending (and likely soon to make unlimited campaign contributions protected as free speech) has greatly empowered party and candidate financiers. A relatively small number of large corporations, unions, and wealthy donors are a distinct financial base within each major party. And a Party’s financial base is as important as the voting base. Because while money will automatically create a viable candidate (see Monica Wehby) and thus votes, a voting base won’t automatically create a large enough financial base to win an election.

So, it’s fair to now say that each major party has a distinct and powerful voting base and a financial base. And the edge the Democratic Party in Oregon has is that it’s financial base and voting base have greater issue overlap than the Republican financial and voting bases.

OR GOP base parties

The Oregon Democratic financial base is clearly unions and more specifically public employee unions. And the Democratic Party is very clear that it’s number one issue is the well being of employees. Preferably union employees, and more specifically public employees. Whether the issue is PERS, public spending on construction projects or schools, tax increases to pay for these services, government oversight or control of the land use process, the financial base and voting base of the Democratic Party are generally in sync on major issues and policies. Consequently, there is little tension within the Party and it can act very cohesively with less internal disruption or conflict between the two bases.

In comparison, the Republican financial base is more interested in a libertarian capitalism. Less government regulation and low taxes, while it’s voting base is more animated by social issues . Though low taxation and less government regulation are important as well for the voter base their blood boiling issues are immigration, gay marriage, abortion, and religious policies such as prayer in school and evolution. And, while disagreements between the Democratic financial base and voting base are more related to relative importance of a particular policy, the differences between the Republican financial and voter base are more often about the policy itself. Businesses want immigration reform. And think being anti gay is bad for business. (more…)