Posts published in October 2026

When I sat down for a recent supper in a restaurant in Yamhill, the TV set on the side wall was showing Portland-area news. Campaign ads dominated the commercial breaks, as is normal for October of an election year.

But with the exception of one ad apiece for Republican gubernatorial candidate Christine Drazan and Democratic U.S. Rep. Janelle Bynum, none featured Oregon candidates or races. The rest were about Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, featuring the red and blue teams spitting at each other.

The hottest Northwest congressional race this year lies on the north side of the Columbia River, where the campaigns have been fierce and the outcome uncertain.

Washington’s 3rd district borders Oregon and the Columbia River from just west of White Salmon downriver to the Pacific Ocean. The south side of the river in Oregon overall votes strongly Democratic.

The Washington side is more complex.

All the smaller counties in the district — Pacific, Skamania, Lewis, Wahkiakum and midsized Cowlitz — have been voting mainly Republican in recent years, in some places reversing patterns from a generation ago. (A small slice of Thurston County to the north is included too; it trends purplish.)

But two-thirds of the 3rd’s population is in Clark County, which is complex too. Overall, the county has voted against Republican Donald Trump three times in a row. But its legislative delegation and local officials long have been a mix of Republicans and Democrats (veering a bit more Democratic in 2024). While most of Vancouver is Democratic, many of the fast-growing suburbs to the east and north are red. The community of Battle Ground is a well-known example.

The district overall leans Republican, but not too strongly. It voted for Trump three times, but by diminishing margins. It elected Democrat Brian Baird for six terms starting in 1998, then Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler for five terms starting in 2010. After the Jan. 6, 2021 capital attack, she was a rare Republican vote to impeach Trump; in response, she lost the next primary election to Joe Kent, an election denier, a Trump hard-liner and a supporter of the insurrection.

The Democrat who was expecting to be simply a placeholder and likely loser to Herrera Beutler was Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who with her husband operated an auto repair shop; her electoral experience was an unsuccessful run for Skamania County commissioner. But Kent was such a contentious figure that she narrowly prevailed, and she repeated that performance against Kent in 2024.

Now running for a third time, Gluesenkamp Perez faces a different kind of opponent in John Braun, a state senator since 2013. His 20th Legislative District covers a north-central swatch of the 3rd Congressional, from north of Vancouver through part of the Battle Ground area, skirting Longview, north past Centralia.

This is solidly Republican turf, such that Braun hasn’t had a general election opponent in years. And in contrast to Kent, he has not been notably controversial. All of that provides little meaningful political measure, though the state Senate’s Republicans chose him to lead their caucus.

Gluesenkamp Perez, who has been a centrist Democrat since her first election, seems to have leaned further from the left this year. That irritated activist Democrats, who ran a challenger named Brent Hennrich and who, after his distant third place finish, declined to endorse Gluesenkamp Perez for the general. But that generated a backlash which may help her.

Those core facts result in one of the least predictable congressional races in the country, and certainly in the Northwest. Polling has been inconclusive.

Gluesenkamp Perez has won twice, albeit narrowly each time. The norm is that the first re-election is the toughest, and after four years a member has had time to sink roots and build relationships, as she apparently has been doing. She has another advantage in this cycle in what looks like a national Democratic wave. Diminishing margins for Trump in this area could be a supporting indicator.

The race is thought to be close in part because, in Braun, Republicans have nominated a candidate in a more traditional mold more like the district has supported in the past. And, while he’s relatively new to contested elections, he’s made no notable missteps.

Both sides have been well funded (Gluesenkamp Perez leads in personal campaign fundraising, while Braun draws more support from super PACs). The race has drawn both Democratic and Republican party attention. Negative ads, as I noted early, are flowing like the Columbia in springtime, a sure sign both campaigns think it’s close.

In other words, there are a lot of moving pieces here.

Of the four major national contest raters, Cook Report and Inside Elections consider this a toss-up race, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it lean Democratic and Decision Desk opts for likely Democratic. That’s an unusual spread — the raters ordinarily do not split their estimates that much, showing again how hard this race is to call.

A fair estimate would tilt the needle maybe a bit in Perez’ direction, owing to the evident national anti-Trump atmosphere.

But if you’re watching the returns on election night, don’t expect an early resolution. This one might drag out for a few days.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

One question people inside and outside Oregon ask about this year’s governor’s race is: Has incumbent Tina Kotek, who won four years ago, lost any of her then-successful coalition of voters and interests?

The basic answer has been no, but it has to come with an asterisk, which is the Oregon Education Association.

That’s an asterisk worth reviewing, since this year’s elections could carry implications for that large — and important in Oregon politics — organization, as well as for the governor’s race.

Facing for the second time Republican challenger Christine Drazan, Democrat Kotek’s roster of organizational support this time looks mostly similar to that of her last campaign. For a time this year, the Oregon Working Families Party, which cross-nominated her previously, didn’t appear to be doing so; but in August the party did cross-nominate and endorse her.

Labor organizations are, as usual, prominent in Kotek’s support base, including the Oregon AFL-CIO, SEIU Oregon, Oregon AFSCME, OSEA, Laborers International Union of North America Local 737, International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, the Oregon State Council, Oregon State Fire Fighters Council UA Local 290 Plumbers and Steamfitters, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 48, Ironworkers Local 29, International Association of Painters and the Allied Trades District Council 5.

On her endorsements page, Drazan lists no labor organizations (though it did include a business group based around members who have worker contracts).

The OEA, which endorsed Kotek in 2022 and donated about $389,000 to her cause, decided in March this year it would not endorse anyone in the governor’s race. That’s not completely unprecedented but it is unusual: Democratic candidates for governor typically get the group support.

The decision, as the Capital Chronicle reported at the time, came at a meeting of the group’s political action committee, where about 75% were said to have decided against an endorsement. There’s been no apparent reversal of position since.

The reasons were not made very clear, though the union and Kotek have been at odds over several issues, from school budgeting levels to rules surrounding instructional time at schools.

The Oregon Education Association is big among Oregon labor organizations, with about 41,000 members scattered all over the state. It contributes manpower and money, and has been an important part of the labor coalition helping Democrats to so many wins in recent years.

Just how great its individual impact is, though, is a question for which this election may be what sociologists would call a “natural experiment,” allowing for some clear analysis of a political factor that has been meshed with others in the past. The results could be disquieting to the teachers union.

If Kotek receives no money from the group, for example, that’s a diminishment of her campaign. But to date, according to the secretary of state’s office, Kotek’s campaign has received $10.4 million (to Drazan’s $9.9 million); outside groups also are operating in the race. The OEA contribution, while large, would be unlikely to be decisive.

While the organization formally is not involved in the campaign, many of its members may well participate or contribute on their own. The union has endorsed dozens of federal and legislative candidates in this election (nearly all Democrats), and most have backed Kotek.

How it will emerge as a power center after this election may be a more significant question.

If, for example, Kotek wins the race, it will be possible to argue that she didn’t need its backing. Not to mention that the OEA might not top her speed dial list next year.

If Kotek loses, on the other hand, the OEA’s role in the election would be much remarked on, and probably deeply criticized among its usual labor and other allies, weakening its overall position politically. That’s not to mention having to cope with a political and policy environment in which the new governor — Drazan — would be working to carry out an agenda far removed from the OEA’s.

In standing where it has in this election, the OEA made clear enough its displeasure with some of Kotek’s statements and actions. But did it think through the next steps: Where it and its members would be in 2027, once the implications, whatever the result of the election, become known.

They may have some explaining, and fast strategizing, to do.

This column first appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.