Todd Achilles, a candidate for the U.S. Senate seat on the ballot in Idaho next year, campaigned around much of the Idaho Panhandle in early August, and doubtless had to spend a good deal of his time making the case that his was not a hopeless quest.
In fact, a case that he could have a realistic path can be made. But seeing it requires some imagination and cross-referencing with other states.
Achilles, of Boise, was until recently a Democratic state representative, and in private life (his website notes) “I spent over 20 years in the tech sector, leading teams at T-Mobile, Hewlett-Packard, and several start-ups. Today I teach public policy and advocate for veterans.” In July he resigned his seat (and in effect his party standing) to run as an independent against three-term incumbent Jim Risch, a Republican. Risch won each of his last couple of re-elections with more than 60% of the vote, normal for Republicans in Idaho, and he has announced a 2026 campaign.
You could make the point that he won those races against Democrats, who in Idaho routinely have been (socially, not so much in specific campaigns) slimed as devil-worshiping pedophiles, or whatever else comes to mind, but there’s no track record to show an independent candidate will do better. Most independents win around two or three percent of the vote, not enough to create even a ripple. Any independent will, of course, have to build a personal campaign structure and finance network from scratch, no easy task. There is no pre-existing base of support, even from a minority position. The challenges are formidable.
Are there reasons to think Achilles can do better than that?
Maybe. Only maybe. But here are three thoughts to consider.
First, independents are getting a lot more popular: A lot, at least in terms of how voters think of themselves. In Oregon, for example, there are now more non-affiliated voters than either Democrats or Republicans; a decade ago, NAVs accounted for far fewer than either major party. And that’s not counting the Oregon Independent Party, which runs a strong third to the two majors. In the surge of independent voters, Oregon is no outlier - and neither, I suspect, is Idaho, where party registration is no accurate measure of actual party support.
There are plenty of studies backing up this idea. One, from Overton Insights, said “Just 49% of voters feel represented by either the GOP or Democratic Party.”
Achilles’ rejection of parties generally turns up in recent interviews, where he said Washington political leaders “built a system that is perpetuating parties instead of the Constitution.” That might have some resonance around Idaho.
Second, there are examples in other states of independents picking up large percentages. One well known in Idaho is Evan McMullin of Utah. A clearer case study is Dan Osborn of Nebraska. Osborn is a blue collar worker and a former labor leader in Omaha (like Achilles, military veteran) who in 2024 decided to run for the U.S. Senate in Nebraska with, as he began, no financial or organizational resources, and no major national support. Though he was opposing a Republican senator, Democrats mostly stayed out of the race.
Nebraska has some similarities to Idaho: A comparable population and a similarly strong Republican lean (Donald Trump won there with 59.3%, to Democrat Kamala Harris’ 38.9%). In the Senate race, though, Osborn wound up with about 47%, turning in a competitive race. He’s running again and is being taken more seriously this time, and his campaign could serve as a template for Achilles.
Third, there’s Achilles himself, who has a strong personal story (including military service in the Persian Gulf) and is off to an early start. Yes, there's the Boise Democrat thing. But he has the advantage of being a new figure, with some indications of real campaigning skill.
And 2026 may be a year of dissatisfaction in many places.
If that dissatisfaction is strong enough, it could yield some surprising results in fresh directions, even in Idaho.
(image)