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Posts published in “Day: July 6, 2022”

Dobbs and the governor’s race

Dobbs and the governor’s race

July 6, 2022

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The independent gubernatorial candidacy of Betsy Johnson is predicated on bringing together two dissatisfied groups - Republicans unhappy with the Trumpy side of their party, Democrats unhappy with the Portland-style liberalism in theirs - with independents to form a polyglot plurality.

She took a useful step in that direction with her call for a series of debates around the state in addition to the traditional Oregon Newspaper Publishers Association faceoff and “if possible, it would be preferable for these debates to be televised, so that more people are able to hear directly from the candidates.”

That tactic comes with high risk for Johnson in this season, not because of any lack of skill at the podium, but because of the land mine issues.

Three things have happened in the last month or so, two in the last week, that has upset that calculation.

One, purely political, came in the Republican primary election, when Christine Drazan, a former legislator who led her party’s House caucus, won her party’s nomination. She probably was the most broadly appealing of the many contenders, even winning endorsements from news media like the Oregonian and Bend Bulletin. The part of Johnson’s strategy based on breakaway Republican voters, who might have been more interested in an independent if the nominee were weaker, took a hit with that result.

The other two, more recent, developments were national in origin.

One was the U.S. Supreme Court gun decision overturning a long-standing New York law on public guns, swiftly following a much-noted mass shooting of school children in Uvalde, Texas. That has put the whole question of gun regulation and rights close up.

That’s not a difficult issue for either Drazan, who with her A rating from the National Rifle Association is in line with her party, or for the Democratic nominee, Tina Kotek, who like her party favors stricter regulation. (She has called for a debate centered around gun policy.) Support and opposition for both are baked in. Johnson too has an A rating from the National Rifle Association, which may hurt with Democrats.

The third development is abortion, something I noted two months ago, as a “political issue not top of mind for most Oregonians but (which) may get there in coming months.” It seems to have arrived.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court’s (expected) reversal of Roe v. Wade on June 24, the future of abortion has become the topic of the moment and probably of the weeks to come, and it may affect the upcoming November elections. Abortion battles coast to coast are boiler over already. Oregon’s rules on abortion won’t change - for now - but will be affected by what other states do. And national Republican political figures (notably former Vice President Mike Pence) have called for a nationwide abortion ban, which they likely would try to pass if they’re able after the 2024 election.

The gubernatorial candidates split on this opposite to the way they do on guns. More or less.

Drazan was one of four endorsed governor candidates of Oregon Right to Life, which opposes abortion “from the moment of conception to natural death.” She tweeted her praise of the Roe reversal and pledged to follow up on it;we can expect to hear more where she would try to take Oregon, and whether she’d back a nationwide ban. She may face a tug of war between a base urging her to commit to reversing the state’s pro-choice policies, and a broader electorate less accepting of that idea.

Independent Betsy Johnson said clearly, “I am pro-choice. This is a bedrock issue for me and, frankly, for Oregon, A fundamental right.”

That could hurt her with Republicans - but it’s not all of the story. Within hours of the Supreme Court decision, Kotek released a memo pointing out that Johnson had just welcomed, as chair of Republicans for Johnson, former governor candidate Bridget Barton. She like Drazan was a co-endorsee of Oregon Right to Life, who said of abortion, “My efforts as governor will focus on support for all human life, including all of our most vulnerable from conception…” That could be enough to make some otherwise tempted Democrats uneasy. (Kotek also tied Drazan to several anti-abortion measures that probably would not sell well with the Oregon electorate.)

It’s Kotek, the Democrat with strong pro-choicece views (endorsed by Planned Parenthood Advocates of Oregon, Pro-Choice Oregon, and The Mother PAC) who has seized the abortion issue with a parade of statements since the court ruling, and for good reason: Her stance is likely close to that of a majority of Oregon voters.

In 2018 a relatively modest ballot measure which would scale back (not even eliminate) public funding for abortions, was rejected by voters 64 percent to 36 percent. Support in Oregon for retaining something like Roe v. Wade may be even more sweeping. Earlier, in 2014 (when if national trends are any indication pro-Roe views were less popular than now) a Pew Research study found 63 percent of Oregonians thought abortion should be “legal in all/most cases.”

Abortion and guns, so often nationally a prescription for conservative wins, could cut the other way in Oregon this November.

Originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.
 

Fulcher’s take

July 6, 2022

malloy

In case you haven’t seen enough of the congressional committee investigation of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, and the role that President Trump played, stay tuned. There’s more to come.

Idaho Congressman Russ Fulcher says the GOP soon will have its version of what happened on Jan. 6, along with analyses of what the House committee missed in its investigation.
Fulcher, for one, isn’t impressed – either with the committee’s work, or the Republican response.

“I don’t have a tremendous amount of confidence in one-sided anything, and that goes for the one-sided GOP response, too,” he told me. “The Republican response is going to be as one-sided as what’s going on now.”

What’s going on, essentially, is the third impeachment of Donald Trump – filled with testimony from Republicans and former White House staffers about the president’s role in the Capitol riot on Jan. 6 and his efforts to change the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

“I’m sure the testimony is compelling, otherwise they wouldn’t have it,” Fulcher said. “But when you have an investigation, in which the function of the rules is to consider one side, then I don’t care what it is – pro-Trump, or anti-Trump – it doesn’t carry weight with me.”

Fulcher is hardly a neutral observer. He was one of the few Republicans who, in the wake of the Capitol riot, voted against certifying the results of the presidential election. He was a staunch supporter of Trump, and continues to think his policies were on the right track.

But Fulcher acknowledged that Trump has his personal flaws.

“Donald Trump is not, and has never been a Boy Scout,” Fulcher said. “He’s incredibly good at what he does, and he’s one of these people who walks into a room with the middle finger extended. You get what you get … I know who he is. But if the policies he espoused were in place today, you and I wouldn’t be talking about these other issues.”
Mainly, high gas prices and inflation – the cornerstone of the GOP’s campaign in the mid-term elections.

“That’s what’s killing people,” he said. “I spoke to a group of about 3,000 people the other day and did some milling around. I’d say 75 percent of those I talked to talked about gas prices and inflation and maybe 20 or 30 percent talked about guns. I believe there was one person who talked about Jan. 6. It’s just not on people’s minds on a major scale.”

Fulcher says Idaho’s four congressional offices are not getting many letters or comments about the Jan. 6 hearings. Editorial writers and commentators are paying attention, of course. Whether it moves the needle on public opinion, or has impact in future elections, is another question.

Politically, as Fulcher sees it, the hearings are a convenient diversion from the “failed policies” that led to high gas prices and inflation. Fulcher thinks Republicans soon will be in charge as the majority party.

“The Democrats know it. That’s why some 35 Democratic members are not running for re-election,” Fulcher says. “One of my Democratic colleagues told me that he hopes, when we get the majority, that we will start producing some fuel.”

There are many reasons for high gas prices, including Russia’s war on Ukraine and the dynamics of supply and demand. As with other Republicans, Fulcher pins much of the blame on President Biden.

“Within days of taking office, you had the president of the United States saying no to drilling on public lands or water – no new permits. And you discourage financing for fossil fuel projects through the treasury. Then you put a stop to the largest pipeline that’s under construction,” Fulcher said.

“Those actions produced a chilling effect throughout the industry,” he said. “I’m not surprised at all about the jump in profits. Profits are going up, because companies are not re-investing,” he said.

For certain, everyone (including Fulcher) wants to be paying less at the pump. But as gas prices continue to climb, so do the prospects for Republicans in the mid-term elections.

ctmalloy@outlook. Chuck Malloy is a long-time Idaho journalist and columnist. He may be reached at ctmalloy@outlook.com