Dave Wasserman, who works for the Cook Political Report and offers commentary for several other also-respectable analysis outfits, was really struck by a data point. To the extent, he tweeted, that he had “spent [his] career downplaying” something, and now sees just that thing happening.
Look at the map above (via Gallup) which shows approving ratings for President Trump in polling by state. The exact numbers range are interesting, but what’s worth noting here is which states fall into which cohorts – states that give the president approval ratings of 50% or more (not bad), as opposed to 40 to 49% (mediocre) or below 40% (bad).
You’d expect that states supporting Trump would fall into the not-bad group, and many of them do (Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, the Dakotas and so on). Then there’s the large expected number in the middle group, which almost all consists of states Trump won but, in many cases (not all), not by much.
The third group consists mostly of states Trump lost in 2016 – including places like California, New York, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and so on – which is about what you’d expect. But look down to the lower center and see which state anchors that group of really-don’t-like Trump states.
That’s what stunned Wasserman. He noted that for many years he’s been throwing the damper on talk about a Democratic rise in Texas. But this map tells a different story.
It’s just one data point. But keep a close watch on it. – rs