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First take/Idaho primary

Very hard to know who will wind up winning the Idaho Republican primary. In a recent rundown through comments by Idaho elected officials, an Idaho Statesman piece yielded little definitive other than that no Republican presidential candidate was likely to hit the 50% mark, which is where the contest would become winner-take-all.

On the flip side, I’d be surprised to see Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio score as low as the single digits. (John Kasich, notwithstanding an endorsement from the governor, might, though he could hit in the teens too.) The weight of opinion seemed to lean a bit in Trump’s direction, and that’s a credible outcome. So too a good showing by Cruz, with his support from small organizations (his stopover in Coeur d’Alene was an indicator of that) or Rubio (who may do well in the LDS community).

But for the moment, Idaho ranks as a little more uncertain in its outcome than some of the other primary states we’ve seen. – rs

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