Writings and observations

A brokered convention

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Here is a possible but not plausible prognostication regarding the 2016 presidential sweepstakes: The person taking the oath of office in January of 2017 will not be Hillary Clinton, nor will it be Jeb Bush. Odds makers favor those two and they may well be correct. Here is a long-shot hunch – the next president of the United States will be Mitt Romney.

Impossible one might say, but if a student of political history, one knows it is not implausible. The key of course is the Republican National Convention will convene in late June or July of 2016 without any one candidate arriving with the nomination already sewn up.

Pundits are saying that the Republican field could have as many as 20 contenders and conventional wisdom is the ability to attract dollars and supporters will quickly narrow the field. That’s probably correct but if the field is narrowed to just the top ten that last month’s Quinnipiac University national poll identified, as well as the five having a support level of 10 percent of the party faithful, a brokered Republican convention becomes much more likely.

A quick look at the presidential primary and caucus schedule shows what the problem could be: It is easy to forecast “favorite son” candidates through out the schedule, especially if one can hang on until his home state has its primary.

Much of course depends on whether individual state party rules specify a winner-takes-all the state’s delegates or delegates are apportioned based on who wins each congressional district. For now let’s say that’s an even offset.

Looking at the schedule suddenly makes a brokered convention look a bit more plausible. Forget the jockeying between Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina as to which state goes first and anticipate it will the Iowa’s caucus first, followed by the New Hampshire primary followed by the South Carolina primary.

Guess what, sports fans? There’s a different winner in all three. Religiously conservative Iowa carries former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee across the line, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who actually won Iowa four years ago but by the time the media learned that they were long gone having declared Romney the winner.

In New Hampshire the winner is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, but with only 23% of the vote. The following week in his home state of South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham wins in a walk. Three days later Kentucky Senator Rand Paul takes the Nevada caucus.

Super Tuesday arrives on March 1`with nine states or more holding elections and/or caucuses. The big prizes are Texas, Virginia, Georgia and North Carolina but again the results are mixed. Senator Ted Cruz takes his home state of Texas knocking former Governor Rick Perry out of the race. For arguments sake let’s say Governor Huckabee takes North Carolina and Senator Rubio takes Georgia and Jeb Bush takes Virginia.

And so it goes. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal takes his home state on March 5 and on March 8 Ohio Governor John Kasich takes his state. On March 15 the showdown in Florida is won by former Governor Jeb Bush over Senator Rubio.

On April 5 Governor Scott Walker wins Wisconsin. April 26, former Senator Rick Santorum wins his native state. May 17, Senator Paul takes Kentucky and on ay 24 Governor Huckabee takes Arkansas. On June 7, if he is still in the race, Governor Christie takes his home starte, New Jersey.

So, all you pundits and sages out here, tell me if any of those so far mentioned will arrive with the nomination in-hand? Or, for the first time since 1952 will there be an open convention?

Here’s why I think Mitt Romney has sniffed out the likelihood of this happening. First, as a student of history Romney is aware that it took Ronald Reagan three tries before he was embraced by the GOP. Second, he’s a known quantity and has passed muster, receiving millions of votes in 2012. A little known fact is that if voters have pulled a lever for you once, they usually do so again.

Third, he is wisely playing the party game—he’s lent people from his campaign organization to other campaigns and is making appearances. Fourth, he is courting the media and portraying the “real Mitt” to them.

If lightning strikes, Mitt Romney will be ready, and this time he wins.

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