Writings and observations

carlson CHRIS


Most any day now Hillary Clinton is expected to announce her candidacy for the presidency. It appears she is going to be nominated as the Democratic standard bearer almost by acclamation. Fully 2/3’s of self-identified Democrats say she should be their nominee – a simply astounding lead for any one any time who aspired for an open seat presidential nomination.

Virtually every potential Republican has two mantras in their campaign speeches: why they are the true conservative and why they can beat Hillary Clinton. The media is positively salivating at the prospect. Her every move is scrutinized, not just her every e-mail (Those that were not purged from her personal PC server, that is).

They know the Republican party has a storehouse of materials researched, vetted and prioritized which they will start rolling out long before they have selected their nominee. It will be a string of invective, innuendo and distortion unlike anyone has ever seen. To their surprise it won’t change many minds.

I have a theory that many voters have already made up their minds about whether there should be a return to the White House of the Billy and Hillary Show. Yes, no matter how one wants to spin it, that decision is going to be influenced for many by the thought, for good or for ill, that coming along to the White House with Hillary would be “First Spouse” Billy.

All they are waiting for, before making up their minds, is to see whether Republicans will be smart enough to nominate a reasonable, competent alternative.

I haven’t seen or analyzed any polls on this subject – I’m just going with the old gut check here, but, for the sake of argument, indulge me for a moment.

First, most men voters, especially white men, are not enamored of Mrs. Clinton. The reasons vary, but it basically is a “not that woman at this time and this place.”

Thus, it is safe to say that Hillary arriving at the White House will depend on her “sisters” delivering close to a 2/3’s majority for her, and that’s where the Hillary juggernaut will stumble, and ultimately be stopped. My guess is she will at best win the women vote nationwide by a 53% to 47% margin.

Her sisters will let her down not because they reject that it is a woman’s turn, nor that it is Hillary’s turn. Nor that she isn’t qualified or because they have concerns about Slick Willie.

Hillary will at best get a slightly better than split vote not because of her gender, but many women will decide Hillary doesn’t pass muster because she did not speak out more aggressively on the major issues of concern to women voters. What they will see is the following:

Hillary will speak out for increasing the minimum wage instead of talking to women voters about equal pay for equal work.

Hillary will denounce the growing income gap in America between rich and poor but won’t offer a solution. After all, she and Bill are now full-fledge members of the affluent class.

Hillary will shy away from addressing with specific solutions the horrible abuse women endure not just in far off foreign cultures but here in America. One United Nations study said over the course of a woman’s life 7 out of 10 women will either be raped, physically assaulted, molested or sexually harassed in their lifetime.

Hillary will not be able to win the confidence of the nation’s military leadership.

Hillary will galvanize the evangelicals by appearing to attack “freedom of religion” clauses in legislation.

For example she will say she supports repealing the opt out clause in contracts with Catholic hospitals.

When she stumbles, as inevitably she will, she will revert to form, blame the media and act out in her pattern of petulence and victimization.

It won’t sell with many women who, unlike men voters, have yet to really make up their minds. They will have a “show me” attitude and at this juncture I’m guessing she won’t be able to do so.

Am I the only “business Democrat” (fiscally conservative, socially liberal) out here in the hinterlands who would like to see his party at least have an honest to goodness open primary? To quote former Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater, can there be a choice, not an echo?

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Here’s what public affairs news made the front page of newspapers in the Northwest today, excluding local crime, features and sports stories. (Newspaper names contracted with location)

Otter vetoes instant racing repeal bill (Boise Statesman, IF Post Register, Nampa Press Tribune, TF Times News, Pocatello Journal)
St. Luke’s battle over Jefferson St closing (Boise Statesman)
Raises okayed for Idaho Falls Power people (IF Post Register)
Bonneville, Bingham link for economic development (IF Post Register, Pocatello Journal)
Biggest Lewiston port container operator departing (Lewiston Tribune)
WA Senate approves budget proposal (Lewiston Tribune)
Nampa holds off decision on old library (Nampa Press Tribune)
Otter signs anti-bullying bill (TF Times News, Pocatello Journal)

State Senate education bill passes (Eugene Register Guard, Pendleton E Oregonian)
Republicans criticize ethics plan (Eugene Register Guard)
Rules about tent tiedowns in city on hold (Eugene Register Guard)
Drought declared for Klamath, other counties (Medford Tribune, KF Herald & News)
Oregon Tech confronts possible revenue shortfall (KF Herald & News)
Klamath pot dispensary rules in review (KF Herald & News)
Medford schools get debated textbook (Medford Tribune)
Legislature moves restrictions on gun sales (Medford Tribune)
Farmers urge legislation on power line impact (Pendleton E Oregonian)
Legislature considers Oregon fracking ban (Salem Statesman Journal)

Senate releases budget plan (Bremerton Sun, Olympian, Longview News)
Looking at Common Core testing in Washington (Everett Herald, Bellingham Herald, Bremerton Sun)
Arlington polymer firm abruptly closes (Everett Herald)
Yakima area drought worsening (Seattle Times, Yakima Herald Republic, Kennewick Herald)
KapStone talks could yet resume (Longview News)
Woodland allows recreational pot grow business (Longview News)
Seattle home prices rise 18% in last year (Seattle Times, Tacoma News Tribune)
Daily snow record set in Spokane (Spokane Spokesman)
Spokane mayor pushes council decision on salary (Spokane Spokesman)
Oregon bill would drop I-5 HOV lane (Vancouver Columbian)
Councilor Smith at Vancouver won’t run again (Vancouver Columbian)
Union Gap plans city center developments (Yakima Herald Republic)

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First Take