Press "Enter" to skip to content

Posts published in “Day: October 16, 2014”

Through the crosstabs

idaho RANDY

Political managers spent a good deal of time reviewing polls, but they don't spent a lot of time with the “top line” figures – how, say, two candidates stack up against each other in a race. That can be useful information (notably when put in the context of other polls and for trend lines), but the most helpful material often has to do with the other questions and the answer breakdowns.
Oregon Public Broadcasting and Fox-12 (through DHM Research) polled Oregon from 8-11 on candidates and ballot races. The top lines were not much different from what we've seen elsewhere: Governor, John Kitzhaber (D) over Dennis Richardson (R) by 50%-29, Senate, Jeff Merkley (D) over Monica Wehby (R) by 47%-26%. No terrific shocks there.
But here's some of the rest of what it shows.
Is Oregon on the right or wrong track? As a political matters, that's good for figuring out how incumbents will do. “Right track” is gaining, for the first time in a while; in the new poll, 50% responded that way (37% said “wrong track”), compared to 48% in September and 43% in April. Optimism looks to be gaining on Oregon.
They're not super familiar with the candidates, though. Just 62% identified Kitzhaber as the Democratic nominee for governor, not great for a three-term governor, but Richardson's number was even less impressive; 34% knew he was the Republican nominee. (43% thought the Republican in the race was someone else.)
On the Senate side, just 46% identified Merkley, a six-year incumbent, as the Democratic nominee, and 42% named Wehby as the Republican nominee. That's better than Richardson, but apparently a lot of those people didn't like what they heard about her (there have been a bunch of bad headlines0, since the poll showed her getting a smaller percentage than Richardson.
Back to top lines, the ballot issues were a mix of results, and in all don't add up to a strong philosophical direction. Marijuana legalization seems to be doing pretty well but is no slam dunk (52%-41% in favor), while expanding drivers licenses without proof of legal residents looks to fail big time (about 2-1). the “top two” ballot approach is almost a wash with plenty of undecided (which suggests failure); and the GMO labeling proposal has a slight edge but really is too close to call.
Draw some conclusions from all that if you can.

On the front pages


Here’s what public affairs news made the front page of newspapers in the Northwest today, excluding local crime, features and sports stories. (Newspaper names contracted with location)

Otter's staff worked on CCA deals (Boise Statesman)
Same sex marriages begin in Idaho (Boise Statesman, IF Post Register, Nampa Press Tribune, TF Times News, Lewiston Tribune)
Coho salmon will be harvested Friday (Lewiston Tribune)
Jobs growing, trained work force lags (Lewiston Tribune)
Campaign finance filings in Latah Co (Moscow News)
New heart facility will open in Caldwell (Nampa Press Tribune)
Ybarra voted twice in last 17 elections (TF Times News)
Poll shows Democrats closing, but still short (TF Times News)

Keeping watch for cougars (Corvallis Gazette)
DeFazio, Robinson battle in debate (Eugene Register Guard)
UO study: higher rape risk in campus Greeks (Eugene Register Guard)
General election ballots arriving (KF Herald & News)
This year's fire season called 'lucky' (KF Herald & News)
Medford Ward 4 candidates on the issues (Medford Tribune)
Young voters may be key on ballot issues (Pendleton E Oregonian)
Ethics issues filed on Kitzhaber, Hayes (Pendleton E Oregonian)
Oregon banks worried about pot business money (Pendleton E Oregonian)
Hayes client got foreclosure relief (Portland Oregonian)
Reviewing Senate race (Salem Statesman Journal)

EPA seeks Navy landfill operation (Bremerton Sun)
Gass prices fall around kitsap (Bremerton Sun)
Reviewing Kitsap clerk campaigns (Bremerton Sun)
Backlast seen against marijuana sales (Everett Herald)
Debate held between DelBene, Celis (Everett Herald)
Lewis Co denied water to pot grower (Longview News)
New Port Angeles high school plan revealed (Port Angeles News)
Tharinger has big finance lead in House race (Port Angeles News)
Electronic warfare sparks debate at Forks (Port Angeles News)
Mark Driscoll resigns from Mars Hill church (Seattle Times, Tacoma News Tribune)
Gay marriage underway in Idaho (Spokane Spokesman)
Spokane mayor will reject $7k raise (Spokane Spokesman)
Spokane valley house candidates well known (Spokane Spokesman)
Questions about structuring port alliance (Tacoma News Tribune)
Vancouver's Leavitt boycotts prayer breakfast (Vancouver Columbian)
La Center sees decline in gaming revenues (Vancouver Columbian)