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Posts published in “Day: September 10, 2014”

Is Starr race a dead heat?

harris ROBERT
HARRIS

 
Oregon
Outpost

Last week Chuck Riley was busy working the phones telling voters and supporters that his campaign’s internal polling showed a dead heat between he and Sen. Bruce Starr for SD-15 in Washington County.

Riley lost to Starr in 2010 in SD-15 by 4.5% – or 1,849 votes. The 2014 match up features the same candidates while the Democratic voter edge in SD-15 has actually decreased. So how can the Riley camp be optimistic? Because Senate District 15 will feature Libertarian candidate, Caitlin Mitchell-Markley.

Ms. Mitchell-Markley is an attorney and a member of the Oregon State Bar Board of Governors. A not insignificant position. She is also married to Kyle Markley, Libertarian candidate in House District 30. Kyle Markley also ran for HD-30 in 2012 and was blamed by some Republicans for the defeat of HD-30 Republican incumbent Shawn Lindsay. Mr. Markley received 1,441 votes in 2012 and Lindsay ended up losing to Joe Gallegos by less than 1,200 votes.

However, there are some big difference between the HD-30 2012 race and this years SD-15 race.

In 2012 Kyle Markley ran a vigorous race. This election Caitlin Mitchell-Markley didn’t put a statement in the voters pamphlet and has raised less than $1,000 dollars. And, while Shawn Lindsay was a first term Representative Bruce Starr has been a high profile State Senator and Representative for over a decade. He has much better name familiarity, and deeper roots in the community, than Shawn Lindsay.

Dead heat? Yes, I can see a poll result with Starr holding a 3%- 4% margin advantage being within the margin of error and therefore a “dead heat”. Riley and Starr ran against each other last time and it was close. But While Ms. Mitchell-Markley’s name on the ballot will make some difference, with her less active campaign she won’t get the number of votes Kyle Markley was able to attract in 2010. And combined with the fact that the Democratic voter edge has compressed since 2010, and the familiarity of these two candidates, it means we’re likely to see a repeat of the 2010 election.

Unless that is . . . some dark money independent expenditure group decides to help out Ms. Mitchell-Markley with her campaign.

And a point on Measure 90 may be in order here. If 90 were in effect for 2014, the November race would feature Starr and Riley, with Mitchell-Markley knocked out in May. Instead we’ve got a general election with a Libertarian who has no chance of winning on the November ballot who could effectively “spoil” the election for the preferred candidate. The point being there is a cost to always allowing non viable minor party candidates on the general election ballot rather than requiring them to compete in a preliminary election.

At the energy summit

mendiola MARK
MENDIOLA

 
Reports

U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz and other high-powered industry and government speakers generated a buzz of voltage at the recent Intermountain Energy Summit in Idaho Falls attended by some 300 participants from 19 states and two Canadian provinces.

Idaho Falls Mayor Rebecca Casper warned those in attendance midway through the summit that the Shilo Inn where they were meeting might be blacked out after a truck slammed into a power pole in the city. As it turned out, the lights stayed on, but many of those at the energy conference could not help but be bemused by the incident and see the irony.

Casper and Post Register Publisher Roger Plothow were driving forces behind the successful summit, which took 10 months to organize and drew Idaho Sens. Mike Crapo and Jim Risch, Rep. Mike Simpson, Gov. Butch Otter, Idaho National Engineering Director John Grossenbacher, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissioner Kristine Svinicki and other notables.

Featured speaker Robert Bryce, an energy issues author and journalist, pointed out that while the United States leads the world in reducing carbon dioxide emissions, even if it could cut those greenhouse gases to zero, global CO2 emissions would increase by 7 percent as Third World countries burn more coal to ramp up their economies.

Bryce noted that coal consumption in Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia -- with populations totaling 400 million -- has increased from 2,500 percent to 5,900 percent since 1985.

“They are building their economies on the back of hydrocarbons,” following the examples of the United States, Canada and Europe, Bryce said, adding that China and India also are burning large volumes of fossil fuels to stoke their economic growth.

Calling himself a “resolute agnostic” in regards to the climate change debate, Bryce said he is adamantly in favor of nuclear energy and natural gas, adding “you can’t just wish coal away.” (more…)

On the front pages

news

Here’s what public affairs news made the front page of newspapers in the Northwest today, excluding local crime, features and sports stories. (Newspaper names contracted with location)

Boise police evaluate homeless policy (Boise Statesman)
'Part time Indian' book returns to West Ada (Boise Statesman, Nampa Press Tribune)
Will WA property managers ban pot? (Moscow News)
Vallivue changes its tax levies (Nanpa Press Tribune)
Caldwell chamber seeks signature event (Nampa Press Tribune)
Canyon jumpers still planning event (TF Times News)

Variable school scores (Portland Oregonian, Corvallis Gazette, KF Herald & News)
Cameras watching for forest fires (Eugene Register Guard)
New ownership for Running Y ranch (KF Herald & News)
Charter cable may be bought by Comcast (Medford Tribune)
The path to eliminating Cover Oregon (Salem Statesman Journal, Pendleton E Oregonian)

Bitter debate over state House seat (Bremerton Sun)
Enchanted Valley Chalet moved (Bremerton Sun, Port Angeles News)
Clatskanie city attorney quits (Longview News)
Clallam officials pay may be cut (Port Angeles News)
Bellevue activists push for $15 minimum wage (Seattle Times)
WA court: Cell phone used for public use, public (Tacoma News Tribune)
C-TRAN okays labor contract (Vancouver Columbian)
Yakima tries again on billboard rules (Yakima Herald Republic)