WA: First, initial look

So, in advance of viewing any news reports or spin (this is by way of the Secretary of State’s office rundown):

Not much by way of surprises. At this point. And they generally add up to more or less what people seem to be expecting for November.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell is at nearly twice the vote of Republican challenger Michael Baumgartner; she may not wind up in November with quite so large a lead, but it will be landslide, unless this early indicator is way off.

In District 1, which should be the hottest race in the state, John Koster, the sole Republican, is at about 47% of the total, which portends a general election running fairly close. Suzan DelBene, who has massively outspent everyone, seems to be shooting past what weeks ago looked like a lead for fellow Democrat Darcy Burner, and looks like she will be Koster’s sparring partner for the next three months. Again, no big surprise. (The same two are ahead for the one-month short-term election, so voters didn’t, evidently, decide to vary their selections much.)

Of some interest in the new district, District 10, based around the Olympia area: Democrat Denny Heck, who ran for the House two years ago and now seems ideally positioned for this new district, could have a closer run than had been expected. He’s ahead at this point, at 34% (second place apparently goes to Republican Dick Muri, at 29%), but if among the various candidates you add up all those on each side of the fence, you get an overall Democratic total of 51% Democratic and 46% Republican – suggesting that while Heck may enter the fall with an advantage, it will not be overwhelming.

And the big one, the hot governor’s race? Republican Rob McKenna (45.9%) and Democrat Jay Inslee (43.2%) are running close, and since Seattle is barely accounted for in these early returns, you can call this close. This has looked like a close, hot race for a long time now, and that still looks true.

At least for now. One thing clear about Washington voting in recent years is that unless a race is a runaway, be cautious writing anything office on election night.

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