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Posts published in “Day: June 1, 2012”

Washington legislature runs close, but a turnover?

No major arguments here with the Washington legislative races overview just out from Chris Vance (a former state Republican chair) in the Crosscut.

He figures the contest for control of the Washington legislature - both houses now are in Democratic control - is close, but leans Democratic. The Senate currently is 27 to 22, and the House 56-42. That sounds like a slightly stronger Democratic lead than it really is, especially in the Senate; a three-seat turnover there would reverse control of the chamber, and Democrats seem to have nearly conceded one of their current (admittedly difficult to hold) seats, in Pierce County. The House is a little more a stretch, since an eight-seat turnover would be needed.

Since in Washington at least the year is likely to benefit Democrats a little more on the presidential level, and since that filters down to the legislative level, their odds of retention are helped a bit. But there are a number of vulnerable seats on both sides. This isn't a legislative contest either side can simply assume will wind up in their favor, as Democrats have generally been able to do the last couple of cycles - and Republicans are not without hope of majorities. (They seem to be moving assertively enough that they evidently understand that.) The once-big Democratic majorities have been whittled, and there's not as much room for error as there was.