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Posts published in “Day: May 13, 2012”

ID: Primary dead ahead

May 13, 2012

Tuesday will mark Idaho's first try at a partially-closed primary election. That means Republicans will allow only people declaring themselves to be Republicans to vote in that party's primary. Democrats will allow anybody.

We've talked with a number of people who, disgusted at the idea of publicly declaring a party affiliation, said they won't participate in this primary. How many of them there will be is unclear, especially since some of the early numbers are showing participation is up.

Anyway, these are some of the Idaho primary contests we'll be watching most closely Tuesday night.

1 - House 2B (R) - Phil Hart (inc), Ed Morse (ch), Ron Vieselmeyer (ch), Fritz Wiedenhoff (ch). The Idaho Panhandle is a place of real intra-Republican ferment in this season, and this is one of the reasons why. Hart, who has a number of, let's say issues, with the State Tax Commission (more specifically, it with him - and the IRS too), has a substantial core of defenders in this extremely Republican district. His opposition is split three ways, with Morse getting support from a relatively moderate organization (though they would not call themselves that) and Vieselmeyer, a former legislator, from some other conservative activists. (They have a lot of conservative Republican organizations up in the Panhandle.) Everyone's watching this one.

2 - Senate District 5 (R) - Gresham Bouma (ch), Barrett Schroeder (ch). The winner here gets to face Democrat Dan Schmidt, who in this moderate district last cycle easily defeated Bouma, who was allied with the Tea Party - who had in the 2010 primary defeated Republican incumbent Gary Schroeder. Now Barrett Schroeder (that's right) and Bouma are having it out - and Barrett's campaign material is the most eye-grabbing of the season. The centerpiece of his campaign front page is worth quoting at length, as he proclaims himself: "A Peacemaker, Not a Troublemaker. Idaho MUST reject Extremism and Hate. Education is an investment in our future. I support the University of Idaho and our schools. Government of Laws and Accountability, Not Conspiracy Theories and Secret Militias. A Pro-Business Conservative: 10 years as Chair of Latah County Republicans, Manager of family business, Moscow Hide and Fur." Bouma's web page is a lot less interesting; he "pledges to support Constitutionally limited government, individual liberty, fiscal responsibility, and states' rights."

3 - Senate District 20 (D) - none on ballot. This is the odd case of the group, because there isn't a primary contest here. Republican incumbent Chuck Winder currently is unopposed in either primary or general election. But Eagle resident James Mace filed in March as a write-in candidate for the Democratic nomination; if he gets 50 write-ins, he qualifies for a spot on the November ballot against Winder. He has the usually notoriously low Democratic turnout in that district to contend with, but quite a few people think he can manage the 50-vote threshold, and make for a lively contest in the fall. The first step, if it happens, has to be cleared on Tuesday. This write-in is apt to get unusual attention, if it succeeds, because Winder was the highly visible sponsor of last session's intensely controversial (nationally as well as in the state) transvaginal ultrasound bill.

4 - Senate 1 (R) - Danielle Ahrens (ch), Shawn Keough (inc). All three Republican legislators in District 1 are being challenged as being insufficiently conservative. Such defining is awfully slippery, and probably seriously disingenuous. Keough, the senator of the three, has for some cycles held the vice-chair spot on the Senate side of the Idaho Legislature's budget committee; such a position doesn't go to anyone whose conservative cred is considered seriously questionable (by legislative Republicans, unless you consider them liberals). So, what this challenge means or amounts to isn't totally clear, other than that it has been energetic. But there is this: If it succeeds, it would send some shock waves.

5 - Presidential primary (R). Yeah, yeah, the nomination is sewn up for Mitt Romney. But the Ron Paul people in Idaho (and in some other places) are making loud noises, and this would be a logical place for them to try.

6 - Senate District 23 (R) - Bert Brackett (inc), Tim Corder (inc.). Yes, this is one of those post-redistricting contests throwing together two incumbents, and although both are fair exemplars of this rugged and rural southwest Idaho range land, Brackett and Corder are quite different in legislative outlook. Corder is the more independent and free-ranging in his outlook, Brackett is the more business-oriented and closer to state Republican establishment (his backers include Governor C.L. "Butch" Otter and Senator James Risch, as well as the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry).

7 - House District 7A (R) - Shannon McMillan (inc), Rex Rammell (ch). Remember Rex Rammell? If not, then go here. Well, he's back, in a brand new legislative district where the incumbent lives in, and has previously represented, just the northern end of it. Of course, Rammell is fairly new here too (he previously ran for the legislature around Rexburg), but this is quirky territory. We'd tend to figure McMillan takes it, but who knows for sure?

8 - U.S. Representative District 2 (R) - M.C. "Chick" Heileson (ch), Mike Simpson (inc). Last year this was a lot hotter than now, and Simpson's renomination doesn't seem anywhere near in danger. But it will be a good metric for evaluating the Tea influence this year: Heileson's voice is a fierce one.

9 - Senate District 28 (R open) - W. Rusty Barlow, Jim Guthrie. This should be fascinating. Guthrie, now a representative from a Pocatello-area district, has been a Bannock County commissioner and has developed a campaigning style that keeps him in conservative territory but makes him acceptable to just enough Pocatellans. Barlow, who served in the House from 1976-82, is of a different style entirely - he was one of the most bluntly conservative legislators back in his day. This is quite a contrast, and the results should be fascinating.

10 - U.S. Representative District 2 (D) - Jack Wayne Chappell (ch), Nicole LeFavour. The general expectation is that LeFavour, a state senator and Idaho's only openly gay legislator, will get the nomination easily against perennial candidate Chappell. Probably (though we don't consider it a lock). But this will be one of those cases where it will pay to watch the details of the local returns.

OR: Primary dead ahead

May 13, 2012

Tuesday night, the last of the ballots are scooped up, and the results (most of them anyway) are announced. Except for very close races, the results will be known soon after the 8 p.m. deadline passes.

So what to watch for? Here's where our attention will be focused on Tuesday night.

1 - House 48 (D) - Mike Schaufler (inc), Jeff Reardon (ch). This must be the hottest legislative primary in Oregon this year, a fierce and intensively fought contest in, roughly, southeast Portland - in a district quite a bit different than the one the incumbent, Schaufler, is used to. About a dozen other Democratic House members have lined up for Schaufler's opponent, Reardon, in an unusual display of determination to oust him. The Oregonian notes that "The Oregon League of Conservation Voters is cranking out mailers attacking Schaufler's environmental votes as well as an incident involving Schaufler and a female lobbyist that led to the loss of his House co-chairmanship. One flier features him in league with Sarah Palin and Rush Limbaugh." But Schaufler, who has held a seat here since 2002, is not without friends of his own, or campaign skills. Our betting edges toward Reardon, but not by much: This ranks as the most interesting primary contests in Oregon this year.

2 - Portland mayor (np, open) - Eileen Brady, Charlie Hales, Jefferson Smith, 20 others. Writing about this a week ago, the uneasy prediction was that Hales will be the odd candidate out, and Brady and Smith proceed to November. We're not changing that view yet, but this is a fluid race, and any of the three could realistically wind up third.

3 - Jefferson County Measure 17.43. This is a public safety ballot issue, and also a proposal to raise property taxes in a county that hates property taxes - and where almost all other options to keep the most basic of county services funded have been exhausted. Win other lose, this ballot issue will have statewide resonance.

4 - Clackamas County chair (np) - Dave Hunt (ch), Charlotte LeHan (inc), John Ludlow (ch), Paul Savas (ch). What a contest this has been, and it speaks to the rapid growth in Oregon's third-largest county, its currently eruptive anti-tax Republican activism, and what has been a longer-term Democratic shift. The oddity is that it features an incumbent, Charlotte Lehan, who on her own seems not to have been especially controversial (though one blogger describes her "deaf ear for public sentiment," for which some evidence is available). But her opponents come from all over the board: Former Democratic House speaker Hunt, who has drawn support not only from Democratic quarters but also an Independent Party endorsement; Paul Savas, a commission member who has gotten a lot of the conservative support (though the Oregonian, in endorsing him,m described him as a centrist); and Wilsonville Mayor John Ludlow. Political hacks will be poring over these results for weeks.

5 - Attorney General (D, open) - Ellen Rosenblum, Dwight Holton. It's a statewide office, and has gotten some attention, but the main excitement seems to have been over which of them is more receptive to medical marijuana law (the thinking is Rosenblum, but the evidence is ambiguous). A moderately interesting race, but what will it teach us, other than (maybe) some reflection of attitudes about pot?

6 - Senate 27 (R) - Chris Telfer (inc), Tim Knopp (ch). It can't be said - or rather, it shouldn't be said, since it has been said - that Telfer is anything other than a loyal Senate caucus Republican, who only very occasionally breaks from the pack - no more than several others do. But the challenge from former legislator Knopp in the bigger picture has the look of a coalition of conservative forces (which does include two state representatives from the area) operating on loyalty politics - some of his backers describe Telfer as a Democrat. This is the premier party-loyalty battle in Oregon this year. (The guess here: Knopp wins.)

7 - Lane County Commission, seat 4 (np) - Rob Handy (inc), Pat Farr. Referencing back here to our April 29 piece on this contest between, in a race for a nonpartisan seat, a hot battle between a functional Democrat (that would be the incumbent, Handy) and a functional Republican (Farr).

8 - Portland city council seat 1 (np) - Amanda Fritz (inc). Mary Nolan (ch). You have an incumbent and a challenger, but even that is a little misleading here. Both Fritz and Nolan have views that you might expect of mainstream Portland city candidates, but their structural roles are a little different than you might expect. Fritz, closing out her first term, was the only candidate so far to win Portland city office using public financing, and in some ways seems to have been an outsider since. Nolan, on the other hand, woud be a new council member, but has been a veteran Idaho House member (since 2001), and has been majority leader there. It looks like a close race.

A lot more interesting as a contest than the race for seat 4, which is open. There, attorney Steve Novick - who would become overnight the most interesting member of the city council - is almost certain to win election, and probably will win outright on Tuesday; there are no other strong candidates in that race.

9 - House 36 (D, open) - Sharon Meieran, Jennifer Williamson. After Schaufler/Reardon, this race - to replace Mary Nolan, now running for the Portland council - has become one of the highest-profile of Portland-area legislative races, and its core debate subject is highly pertinent: health. Meieran, who has been a lawyer, has been more recently an emergency room physician. Williamson was and is an attorney, with some expertise in education, including for state entities (Department of Education, Portland State University) and appearing before the legislature: Lobbying. Williamson's campaign got proactive on the definitional front http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2012/04/is_it_a_smear_to_call_an_orego.html, saying in one mailer, "Insurance companies are ready to spend a fortune to smear Jennifer Williamson as a 'lobbyist.'" Meieran forces shot back, decrying the implication that she was an insurance-backed candidate. So we have a doctor (who used to be a lawyer) against a lawyer (who has lobbied), in a campaign that could be an interesting test of which definitions resonate better. The lessons may not be a lot broader than that: They're both running as left-of-center Democrats in a left-of-center Democratic district. (Meieran seems to have gotten the weight of the endorsements.)

10 - U.S. House 3 (R) - Ronald Green, Delia Lopez. There's a notable lack of suspense this year in the primaries for Oregon's congressional offices (and may be again in November). The temptation to include one was too great to resist, though, and this one - the race for the apparently worthless Republican nomination in District 3 (that would be the overwhelmingly Democratic district anchored by Portland, the seat held by Democrat Earl Blumenauer). One of the candidates, a first-timer, was Green, a TriMet bus driver; the other is Lopez, who has run for this seat (and been Republican-nominated) twice before - from the small rural community of Oakland, a couple of hours away from District 3.

Lopez is personable, but, well, she doesn't live even close to the district. Green has no great credentials for Congress, but he does live in the district, and he has a platform (mainly relating to higher tariffs) that relate to economic conditions and action Congress might take. Question: Are the few District 3 Republicans so dispirited that they vote by rote, and give Lopez the nomination again?