Romney, Gingrich and Idaho

In an Idaho Statesman piece, Governor C.L. “Butch” Otter, who’s co-chair of the Mitt Romney campaign in Idaho, remarks that “I would have bet you a month ago that this would have been over with by the first of February. But things have changed.”

He’s certainly not alone in that, or in moving to the logical conclusion that Idaho’s Republican presidential nominating caucuses, scheduled for March 6, may play a larger role in deciding the nominee than appeared likely, say, just after the New Hampshire primary. Testimony to how things can change.

Let’s advance this a step further and ask: If the contest as of March 6 is still competitive between Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, which of those two would win at the Idaho caucuses?

Asking the question today (informally) of a number of people, I got one answer (that I happen to agree with): Despite the mass of endorsements of top Idaho Republicans for Romney, and the near absence of an organization or visible support for Gingrich, the answer is – Gingrich. Check out the Idaho Republican base, and what it responds to, and the match seems pretty clear.

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