"No experiment can be more interesting than that we are now trying, and which we trust will end in establishing the fact, that man may be governed by reason and truth. Our first object should therefore be, to leave open to him all the avenues to truth. The most effectual hitherto found, is the freedom of the press. It is, therefore, the first shut up by those who fear the investigation of their actions." --Thomas Jefferson to John Tyler, 1804.

What looks like a likely outcome

A couple of polls in recent months seemed to show Barack Obama at serious risk of losing Oregon in next year’s election. But the questions were a little sideways and hard to read, and we’ve been awaiting a national poll to check in on the state, to find out how the numbers are reading more directly.

What emerged in the new Survey USA poll on the presidential race is very much what might be expected in Oregon, and likely reflective of what the state will do next year:

11 months till ballots are mailed in the election for President of the United States, incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama is poised to hold Oregon’s 7 electoral votes, according to a poll for KATU-2 TV news in Portland.
Today, in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups between the two Republican front-runners, it’s:
 Obama 48%, Romney 40%.
 Obama 51%, Gingrich 37%
If Romney is the candidate, Obama leads among men by 5 points. If Gingrich is the candidate, Obama leads among men by 12 points. If Romney is the candidate, independents split. If Gingrich is the candidate, Independents break for Obama.
Romney has a Minus 20 favorability rating: 21% see him favorably, 41% see him unfavorably.
Gingrich has a Minus 30 favorability rating: 20% see him favorably, 50% see him unfavorably.

It was a survey of 600 Oregon adults, and included cell phone users.

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