"No experiment can be more interesting than that we are now trying, and which we trust will end in establishing the fact, that man may be governed by reason and truth. Our first object should therefore be, to leave open to him all the avenues to truth. The most effectual hitherto found, is the freedom of the press. It is, therefore, the first shut up by those who fear the investigation of their actions." --Thomas Jefferson to John Tyler, 1804.

Bachmann ahead in Oregon?

Who can say who will be the Republican presidential nominee next year? The only reliable prediction along that front is that there will be one.

For a couple of months, though – to venture a bit beyond the Northwest – we’ve seen a clearer path to the nomination for Michele Bachmann than for most of the other Republican prospects. In Oregon, at least, there’s some basis for arguing for a Bachmann surge. Chrck out this question and response from a survey of Oregon Republicans June 19-21 by Public Policy Polling:

If Sarah Palin didn’t run, and the choices were just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann 29%
Herman Cain 7%
Newt Gingrich 9%
Jon Huntsman 2%
Ron Paul 10%
Tim Pawlenty 6%
Mitt Romney 28%
Someone else/Not sure 8%

The first action voting is yet months away, and any candidate can blow up him- or herself by then, but the early results are worth watching – and maybe reflective of where the Oregon Republican Party is now.

Here’s some more from the PPP’s analysis:

After a well received debate performance, Michele Bachmann has surged forward. Before the debate, Bachmann garnered 8% nationally; but she has more than doubled this level of support in the three states PPP has polled the primary since the debate. However, if Sarah Palin runs, this isn’t enough to claim the lead in Oregon. Mitt Romney takes the lead with 28%, followed by Bachmann with 18%, Palin with 16%, Ron Paul with 9%, Herman Cain with 8%, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty with 6%, and Jon Huntsman with 0% support.

If Palin does not run, Bachmann is the clear choice of Palin’s supporters while Romney picks up an insignificant share. Bachmann leads with 29% to Romney’s 28%, Paul’s 10%, Gingrich’s 9%, Cain’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 6%, and Huntsman’s 2%. Bachmann’s strength lies in her appeal to very conservative voters who make up 44% of GOP voters in Oregon. If Palin runs, Bachmann wins very conservatives with 24% to Romney’s 22%. This margin is expanded to a 37-26 lead without Palin.

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