This was not unpredictable – in fact, it was predicted: That big lead held by Democrat Walt Minnick in the 1st district U.S. House race in Idaho, over Republican Raul Labrador, has shrunk. Some weeks back, a poll commissioned by a group of Idaho newspapers put Minnick’s lead at about 10 points. The new one puts it at three (44% to 41%).

Of course it’s close. It was always going to be close, and it is not a lock. If the probabilities still narrowly favor Minnick, as they probably do, note the qualifier “narrowly.”

In the first district, somewhere around 45% of the voters just simply will not vote for the Democrat; Labrador could have sat home since May and pocketed that portion. (On the flip side, Minnick could take only around 30%, if that, for granted.) The key to the race is the next few percentage points, the relative handful that all of the sound and fury has been about. So it’ll be tight.

The rest of the polling is easily summarized: Republicans are way ahead everywhere else, moreso now than a month or two ago.

Their fellow party backers are coming home, completing their biennial flight patterns as they usually do about this time every other year.