The close districts (in purple); projected D blue, projected R red
Usually, there aren't as many congressional districts in serious play as there are this year, and that's true in the Northwest as well as elsewhere. Of the Northwest's 16 U.S. House districts, five to seven can be realistically considered competitive, more than usual. We'll rank them here from the basis of most like to turn over in party control.
Most of the region's districts are, as usual, unlikely to change hands, or change member of congress. Only one Northwest House seat is open - the Washington 3rd, vacated by Democrat Brian Baird; in the remaining 15, incumbents are running again, and even in a year like this, beating an incumbent isn't easy.
Both parties have safe seats. Among Democrats, those would include the Washington 1st (Jay Inslee), 6th (Norm Dicks) and 7th (Jim McDermott), and the Oregon 3rd (Earl Blumenauer) and 4th (Peter DeFazio). Among Republicans, those would include the Washington 4th (Doc Hastings) and 5th (Cathy McMorris-Rodgers), the Oregon 2nd (Greg Walden) and the Idaho 2nd (Mike Simpson). Yes, a pile of money is being dumped into the Oregon 4th on behalf of an - can we say eccentric as a a diplomatic term? - eccentric candidate, but we suspect it'll be wasted because DeFazio is thoroughly entrenched there.
Two other districts look strongly likely for incumbent re-election but bear watching - we won't put them away just yet. One is the Washington 9th, where Democrat Adam Smith has been winning strongly for a decade but where recent polling has given him mediocre numbers against someone who should be a minor candidate. It's not enough to suggest Smith is on the edge, but enough the it should send his campaign people scrambling to make sure of their ground. The Oregon 1st is a slightly different case, where Democrat David Wu seems about as secure as usual (he too has been winning here for a decade). But Wu has a stronger and more aggressive opponent than usual in Republican Rob Cornilles. (You see his signs thick, across much of the district.) By all conventional measures Wu seems in decent shape; that could change if this turns into a truly unconventional election.
Those 11 races feel, at least for now, like reasonably safe calls. The remaining five are the races that given you some pause when it comes to predictions. And if you're a partisan, these are the Northwest House races that should be occupying your attention. (more…)