Washington state seems to have an abundance of competitive legislative races this year; Oregon ... less so. The Oregonian Sunday offered a list of 16 races - 10 in the House and a half-dozen in the Senate - worth a close watch. It matches up generally with what we've seen and heard, but a few additional words seem in order.
First, there's the relative closeness of the chambers. In the Senate, Democrats control 18-12 (with half the seats, mostly Democratic up for election); in the House, it's 36-24. That means Republicans could pull to a tie in the Senate picking up three seats and in the House picking up six. Those are not enormous numbers. Even closer striking distance is the number they need to pick up - one in each chamber - to eliminate the Democrats' 60% control in each chamber, the level needed to approve tax increases and some other measures.
The 60% level, hinging as it does on a single seat, could be at risk in any year. But if there's little talk of a realistic prospect of Republicans taking over either chamber in Oregon this year, and there's not been much such talk, the reasons have to do with the nature of the individual races.
Simply, a number of seats could flip, but the odds seem to favor both sides doing some gaining and losing. So the second point is that these 16 races (and it reads like a good collection of significant contests) are not all made equal.
The six Senate seats in the Oregonian list, in districts 3, 8, 15, 19, 20 and 26, show as much. Four are now held by Democrats, two by Republicans; Republicans would have to run the table of winning all of those Democratic seats and losing none of their own. (more…)