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Posts published in “Day: September 19, 2010”

ID XGR: Expanding the watch

A note by way of followup and expansion.

On September 5 we ran a list of legislative races to watch in Idaho, races that seem in a number of cases to be potentially close but also worth watching for other reasons.

Today, the Idaho Statesman's Dan Popkey came up with an expanded list, which overlapped with those races mentioned here and adding some others as well. A few words about those.

A specific note: The race for House seat 4B, now held by Democrat George Sayler, maybe ought to have been mentioned here as the House seat most likely to be taken over by the opposing party - by a Republican, Kathy Sims. It was left off because the flip seems so likely, but it will probably mark a change - reducing from two to one the number of Democrats in the Legislature from the Idaho Panhandle.

A general note: Popkey lists an array of Democratically-held seats, mainly in the Boise area but also in Lewiston, the Blaine County area and around Pocatello, as at-risk. He's right: They may be, if the Republican tide in Idaho is high enough. In fact, if the tide is high enough, it could sweep all but seven or eight Democrats from the legislature; in the Boise area, for example, only the three in District 19, two others who are unopposed and maybe one or two others beyond that can be considered truly safe. On the other hand, the tide would have to be extremely high for such a result, and it would have little to do with the individual races.

But check out the Popkey list; the rundown gives a good look at state of play.

The Elway poll

Our gradually (over the last half-decade) skepticism about polling is unabated. (A fine Daily Kos blog post evaluating the likely/registered polling screens, out today, does nothing to alleviate that.)

That said, the Seattle Times-Spokesman Review poll out today, conducted by Elway Research, has enough depth and breadth to warrant a close look.

Notable line from the Times story: "The national narrative is: There's this big wave of change coming," Elway said. "We're certainly seeing people who are frustrated and mad, and tea-party voters. But overall, that is not manifesting itself to a huge wave of change in Washington."

Beware of self-fulfilling narratives.